Market · 3 of 5 outcomes
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 02:10 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tr10000x8a8b…375c | No | 1,500 | 79.3¢ | $1.3K | Losing−$2.06 per $100 · 6,303 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 273 | 20.0¢ | $37 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,489 bets |
| sdfsdfsdfsdf20x321e…9292 | Yes | 258 | 21.0¢ | $35 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 231 | 11.9¢ | $31 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| 0xeda5…073b | No | 20 | 88.0¢ | $17 | — |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | No | 18 | 87.9¢ | $16 | — |
| Milin-dc0x2762…2cf6 | Yes | 100 | 12.0¢ | $14 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 96 | 20.9¢ | $13 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 122,985 bets |
| Tallguy25270x0cf6…3ed9 | Yes | 80 | 21.0¢ | $11 | — |
| galhammerman0xdc05…9a76 | Yes | 80 | 21.0¢ | $11 | — |
| Leclerc040x38cf…d885 | Yes | 55 | 16.6¢ | $8 | Losing−$4.46 per $100 · 1,422 bets |
| mmtrading0x5a0c…9db8 | Yes | 43 | 12.2¢ | $6 | — |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | Yes | 40 | 22.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$2.12 per $100 · 9,353 bets |
| luckart0x110c…0516 | Yes | 38 | 25.5¢ | $5 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 31 | 21.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| chaosj880xca12…ea03 | Yes | 30 | 12.0¢ | $4 | Proven+$2.86 per $100 · 3,013 bets |
| winnertakeitall0xa960…aef8 | Yes | 25 | 12.0¢ | $3 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 22 | 20.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
| tiromi0x0dfe…e95b | Yes | 20 | 22.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x0e3d…52ab | Yes | 20 | 20.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.0x29ed…a8da | Yes | 20 | 20.0¢ | $3 | — |
| MerryMeFlyFree0x43eb…7340 | Yes | 20 | 20.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Slackjaw0x6236…6881 | Yes | 20 | 17.0¢ | $3 | — |
| leantiger0xa1b1…6a83 | Yes | 20 | 21.0¢ | $3 | — |
| dsabanin0x8bbe…1439 | Yes | 9 | 12.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x6fbc…fa10 | Yes | 7 | 13.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.85 per $100 · 1,378 bets |
| tcirkven0xa0e3…fb80 | Yes | 1 | 33.0¢ | $0 | — |
| hithitfar0xe53c…e569 | Yes | 0 | 12.0¢ | $0 | Proven+$7.52 per $100 · 3,961 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.