Market · 3 of 3 outcomes
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 00:00 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
7 proven traders are on Yes, 12 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA0x0c0e…434e | No | 230,855 | 96.6¢ | $227K | Proven+$4.10 per $100 · 2,050 bets |
| pilimili0xd104…acef | No | 116,712 | 97.0¢ | $115K | Losing−$3.33 per $100 · 265 bets |
| Trump20280x2e0b…8070 | No | 90,556 | 97.3¢ | $89.2K | Proven+$2.32 per $100 · 554 bets |
| SAPolitcsSeer0xa30e…49d5 | No | 20,992 | 97.1¢ | $20.7K | New84 settled bets |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No | 19,600 | 97.2¢ | $19.3K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 776 bets |
| 0x0010…eb26 | No | 18,201 | 97.8¢ | $17.9K | New50 settled bets |
| ED999990xdf17…97d1 | No | 13,211 | 95.7¢ | $13K | Proven+$3.46 per $100 · 1,712 bets |
| scottilicious0x000d…758e | No | 12,840 | 96.8¢ | $12.6K | Proven+$2.76 per $100 · 1,310 bets |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No | 6,125 | 96.6¢ | $6.03K | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 569 bets |
| 0x2c79…e0aa | No | 5,050 | 97.3¢ | $4.97K | Proven+$2.22 per $100 · 218 bets |
| Jin-20260x4b30…4b79 | No | 4,136 | 94.8¢ | $4.07K | New91 settled bets |
| iraa30xad60…97f4 | No | 3,847 | 97.7¢ | $3.79K | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 259 bets |
| Vanquish0x4baf…5fdf | No | 3,028 | 97.5¢ | $2.98K | Break-even−$0.06 per $100 · 286 bets |
| iuH1398SI0x44b7…2e99 | No | 2,400 | 96.7¢ | $2.36K | Losing−$4.93 per $100 · 738 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 2,300 | 94.6¢ | $2.27K | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,033 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 2,211 | 97.6¢ | $2.18K | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,918 bets |
| Jet90x8705…8354 | No | 2,080 | 94.4¢ | $2.05K | Proven+$8.39 per $100 · 490 bets |
| DooBieZ0xdb40…3612 | No | 1,888 | 93.1¢ | $1.86K | Break-even+$0.59 per $100 · 8,086 bets |
| pollybond0x224d…e0e7 | No | 1,500 | 92.6¢ | $1.48K | New16 settled bets |
| Jest550xd34b…0004 | No | 1,410 | 96.0¢ | $1.39K | Proven+$5.67 per $100 · 2,686 bets |
| betwick0xc851…cd2a | Yes | 66,217 | 2.4¢ | $993 | Proven+$5.26 per $100 · 769 bets |
| tl2000x2dc6…cf37 | No | 1,000 | 97.6¢ | $985 | New41 settled bets |
| asdfasdav0xe2a9…50cb | Yes | 60,015 | 2.9¢ | $900 | New48 settled bets |
| tryingmyluckhere0xac9b…d4c5 | Yes | 58,116 | 4.2¢ | $872 | Positive+$14.75 per $100 · 560 bets |
| Dima790xdd5a…4d23 | No | 838 | 95.4¢ | $826 | Positive+$1.95 per $100 · 443 bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 700 | 97.5¢ | $690 | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| sqaolkytrpoi0xd6dd…98ee | No | 600 | 89.0¢ | $591 | Proven+$5.99 per $100 · 3,127 bets |
| trzorira20x6d71…82e5 | No | 579 | 97.3¢ | $570 | New98 settled bets |
| 0xa2cd…2e8c | No | 539 | 97.1¢ | $531 | Break-even+$0.56 per $100 · 921 bets |
| justme0030xcb89…a2e8 | No | 500 | 97.8¢ | $493 | Losing−$1.29 per $100 · 343 bets |
| coconutsteaksauce0xd04e…41b8 | No | 500 | 95.3¢ | $492 | Losing−$3.48 per $100 · 350 bets |
| hy5ppr0x7fd2…9d02 | Yes | 29,569 | 2.3¢ | $444 | New3 settled bets |
| TUKARUL0xd175…46ef | Yes | 26,985 | 2.8¢ | $405 | New24 settled bets |
| KariSpice0x08ab…3af9 | No | 400 | 94.6¢ | $394 | Proven+$2.59 per $100 · 586 bets |
| 007-Bond0x8947…f4b4 | No | 350 | 97.1¢ | $345 | New96 settled bets |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | No | 346 | 97.6¢ | $340 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | Yes | 21,865 | 2.5¢ | $328 | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,059 bets |
| alternate010x5c4c…8131 | No | 300 | 97.8¢ | $296 | Losing−$4.59 per $100 · 124 bets |
| 0x764e…dc41 | No | 258 | 97.0¢ | $254 | New41 settled bets |
| 572849100x856a…4ea2 | No | 251 | 97.7¢ | $247 | New18 settled bets |
| 2qZCcUat1aO6J0x1904…e75e | No | 250 | 97.1¢ | $247 | New41 settled bets |
| trerira0x18ab…bae4 | No | 246 | 97.3¢ | $243 | Positive+$1.77 per $100 · 179 bets |
| gh6y0omxinx80x0d83…8eb4 | No | 241 | 98.0¢ | $237 | Losing−$4.67 per $100 · 1,570 bets |
| Pavel850xf7f6…6b83 | No | 234 | 97.6¢ | $230 | New1 settled bet |
| krill8100xde5a…2251 | Yes | 15,000 | 3.0¢ | $225 | New46 settled bets |
| mkln0x8c3e…208d | Yes | 13,824 | 2.8¢ | $207 | New11 settled bets |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | No | 203 | 97.5¢ | $200 | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 1,162 bets |
| trkbk20x09c0…305a | No | 200 | 97.1¢ | $197 | Positive+$1.14 per $100 · 124 bets |
| PutsOnPeace0x635d…5025 | No | 200 | 94.0¢ | $197 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 2,042 bets |
| purplegatto0x032e…2a9e | Yes | 12,600 | 2.6¢ | $189 | Losing−$7.13 per $100 · 15,909 bets |
| PROPHET.NOTES0xcb11…0d5e | Yes | 12,500 | 3.8¢ | $188 | Positive+$1.10 per $100 · 543 bets |
| PaddyAlpha0x9ad0…bf3d | Yes | 12,230 | 2.8¢ | $183 | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 3,059 bets |
| 0xb6ce…895d | No | 186 | 97.2¢ | $183 | Positive+$1.74 per $100 · 1,065 bets |
| powerfulshrimp0xa92a…a4d8 | No | 185 | 97.0¢ | $183 | Break-even+$0.27 per $100 · 145 bets |
| AJK20x014e…3794 | No | 153 | 96.2¢ | $151 | Positive+$1.08 per $100 · 263 bets |
| AlanYagami-T0xe3d1…d312 | Yes | 10,019 | 6.0¢ | $150 | Losing−$2.61 per $100 · 151 bets |
| theta-thunberg0xb760…ccd7 | Yes | 10,000 | 2.5¢ | $150 | Proven+$6.21 per $100 · 1,086 bets |
| pieped0xf440…b009 | Yes | 10,000 | 2.4¢ | $150 | Break-even−$0.12 per $100 · 179 bets |
| ofcourseistillloveyou20190xcea0…3d06 | No | 150 | 97.8¢ | $148 | Break-even+$0.13 per $100 · 1,507 bets |
| 0x0285…96b9 | Yes | 9,698 | 3.5¢ | $145 | New21 settled bets |
| ujmii0xed88…eb8a | Yes | 9,153 | 3.9¢ | $137 | New2 settled bets |
| lososil0xe648…3fc0 | Yes | 8,542 | 3.2¢ | $128 | Positive+$31.39 per $100 · 2,166 bets |
| nchgbhy0x57b0…76f4 | Yes | 8,319 | 3.3¢ | $125 | Proven+$2.09 per $100 · 2,943 bets |
| hinnnat0xc829…e6e5 | Yes | 8,144 | 2.6¢ | $122 | New5 settled bets |
| 0x886e…b9be | No | 123 | 97.3¢ | $121 | Proven+$4.94 per $100 · 125 bets |
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | No | 120 | 97.5¢ | $118 | Positive+$3.91 per $100 · 1,963 bets |
| 8dcc906a9b0xdbd0…8c1c | Yes | 7,604 | 3.5¢ | $114 | Losing−$19.90 per $100 · 244 bets |
| Costasco0xfa73…d943 | No | 111 | 97.2¢ | $109 | New20 settled bets |
| WSmovin0xab12…3683 | Yes | 7,257 | 2.9¢ | $109 | New81 settled bets |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6 | No | 102 | 97.5¢ | $100 | Losing−$2.19 per $100 · 322 bets |
| 0x3eb8…6dba | Yes | 6,526 | 3.1¢ | $98 | New3 settled bets |
| 35gr0x67c9…7422 | Yes | 6,522 | 2.3¢ | $98 | New3 settled bets |
| fr3eihbl0x2bd2…a00d | Yes | 6,104 | 3.2¢ | $92 | New4 settled bets |
| ELEZIOR-TV0xd286…2322 | Yes | 5,961 | 3.1¢ | $89 | Losing−$14.52 per $100 · 1,809 bets |
| etumhjm0xaae3…f436 | Yes | 5,391 | 2.3¢ | $81 | New4 settled bets |
| moneymakingmachine0x420e…e3c9 | Yes | 4,667 | 7.1¢ | $70 | Losing−$3.29 per $100 · 1,690 bets |
| pipilos0xf210…0328 | Yes | 4,659 | 3.3¢ | $70 | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 11,001 bets |
| hamsa10x032f…20f8 | Yes | 4,471 | 2.8¢ | $67 | Break-even−$0.29 per $100 · 5,514 bets |
| utb0xdaea…49f9 | Yes | 4,300 | 2.5¢ | $64 | New18 settled bets |
| vr4rvw0xd501…0cff | Yes | 4,053 | 3.8¢ | $61 | New1 settled bet |
| U6JJ0xb2db…0021 | Yes | 3,530 | 3.8¢ | $53 | New0 settled bets |
| frefe10xc1e6…2e8c | Yes | 3,500 | 3.8¢ | $52 | New1 settled bet |
| SaturnStormCube0xad52…11ac | Yes | 3,000 | 2.9¢ | $45 | Proven+$5.83 per $100 · 3,598 bets |
| tbrbrt0x8b76…9769 | Yes | 2,856 | 3.4¢ | $43 | New4 settled bets |
| 0xce61…05f8 | Yes | 2,807 | 4.8¢ | $42 | New0 settled bets |
| 3rcv3rce0x4d07…9f68 | Yes | 2,800 | 2.7¢ | $42 | New6 settled bets |
| paula0xa0xed86…6ee1 | Yes | 2,632 | 3.8¢ | $39 | New94 settled bets |
| Cungly0x5ccf…79d7 | Yes | 2,558 | 2.5¢ | $38 | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 1,625 bets |
| curkuma0xce4f…bb5a | Yes | 2,484 | 3.1¢ | $37 | Break-even+$0.95 per $100 · 332 bets |
| 0xb8b4…767a | Yes | 2,299 | 3.3¢ | $34 | New3 settled bets |
| ZIZILU0xb096…94ea | Yes | 2,268 | 5.6¢ | $34 | New3 settled bets |
| tootorola0xa75a…3f41 | Yes | 2,129 | 3.1¢ | $32 | Losing−$11.82 per $100 · 402 bets |
| 31E88A2D47209faA91dA10577D8AaD1603312aaa0x9810…7d5b | Yes | 2,065 | 3.1¢ | $31 | Positive+$2.36 per $100 · 2,627 bets |
| DerDon0xf797…0bf2 | Yes | 2,008 | 3.7¢ | $30 | Proven+$4.32 per $100 · 4,225 bets |
| Mecky0xa82b…5220 | Yes | 2,000 | 3.9¢ | $30 | Positive+$3.93 per $100 · 2,966 bets |
| k8upp0x0799…9ac8 | Yes | 1,922 | 3.5¢ | $29 | New0 settled bets |
| rgmkf0x2d6a…2039 | Yes | 1,906 | 3.1¢ | $29 | New0 settled bets |
| 657gdj0x35ed…2d96 | Yes | 1,883 | 4.0¢ | $28 | New0 settled bets |
| badatthis0x75ac…33d7 | Yes | 1,847 | 2.1¢ | $28 | Proven+$6.73 per $100 · 6,671 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.