Market · 2 of 3 outcomes
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 06:25 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 9 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| pilimili0xd104…acef | No | 23,469 | 93.1¢ | $21.9K | Losing−$3.36 per $100 · 266 bets |
| hopedieslast0x5739…5f1a | No | 10,105 | 90.0¢ | $9.45K | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 244 bets |
| The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA0x0c0e…434e | No | 7,359 | 89.6¢ | $6.88K | Proven+$4.10 per $100 · 2,050 bets |
| Parz1vaI0xb100…6461 | No | 4,982 | 92.4¢ | $4.66K | Proven+$3.49 per $100 · 6,933 bets |
| Marc3450x0911…6594 | No | 4,294 | 93.1¢ | $4.02K | New9 settled bets |
| pollybond0x224d…e0e7 | No | 4,000 | 90.0¢ | $3.74K | New16 settled bets |
| Jin-20260x4b30…4b79 | No | 3,492 | 93.8¢ | $3.27K | New91 settled bets |
| Trump20280x2e0b…8070 | No | 2,071 | 91.7¢ | $1.94K | Proven+$2.32 per $100 · 554 bets |
| hwey346ed0x8637…39bd | No | 2,000 | 91.0¢ | $1.87K | — |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No | 1,818 | 90.0¢ | $1.7K | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 569 bets |
| iuH1398SI0x44b7…2e99 | No | 1,818 | 90.0¢ | $1.7K | Losing−$4.93 per $100 · 738 bets |
| 007-Bond0x8947…f4b4 | No | 1,650 | 91.8¢ | $1.54K | New96 settled bets |
| 0x36da…907b | No | 1,100 | 91.0¢ | $1.03K | Losing−$1.36 per $100 · 394 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 1,000 | 87.0¢ | $935 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,521 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 1,000 | 91.5¢ | $935 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| Dima790xdd5a…4d23 | No | 935 | 92.0¢ | $875 | Positive+$1.95 per $100 · 443 bets |
| tryingmyluckhere0xac9b…d4c5 | Yes | 11,850 | 10.5¢ | $770 | Positive+$14.75 per $100 · 560 bets |
| 0x2c79…e0aa | No | 764 | 95.0¢ | $714 | Proven+$2.22 per $100 · 218 bets |
| ED999990xdf17…97d1 | No | 748 | 90.0¢ | $700 | Proven+$3.46 per $100 · 1,713 bets |
| MEPP0x6d9f…9790 | Yes | 7,488 | 11.8¢ | $487 | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 1,289 bets |
| ELEZIOR-TV0xd286…2322 | Yes | 7,405 | 7.2¢ | $481 | Losing−$14.52 per $100 · 1,809 bets |
| zctrading0x7e5b…e00b | No | 458 | 92.0¢ | $429 | New27 settled bets |
| 0x0285…96b9 | Yes | 5,920 | 6.8¢ | $385 | New21 settled bets |
| tehkai0xa429…368a | No | 400 | 95.0¢ | $374 | Break-even−$0.75 per $100 · 483 bets |
| Gluckyklucky0x97d3…3f3c | No | 400 | 91.0¢ | $374 | — |
| estafeta0x519d…fe85 | Yes | 3,600 | 10.0¢ | $234 | New6 settled bets |
| BigRabbit0xeb22…808a | Yes | 3,000 | 9.0¢ | $195 | Positive+$4.46 per $100 · 2,227 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 205 | 89.0¢ | $191 | Proven+$3.95 per $100 · 66,043 bets |
| PutsOnPeace0x635d…5025 | No | 200 | 89.0¢ | $187 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 2,042 bets |
| Dima030xfdec…ffe8 | Yes | 2,530 | 8.0¢ | $164 | — |
| crypto-basenji0x72f7…92f7 | Yes | 2,513 | 8.0¢ | $163 | Proven+$3.15 per $100 · 460 bets |
| FishermansFiend0x3a59…6c6f | No | 164 | 94.0¢ | $153 | Positive+$2.04 per $100 · 177 bets |
| cambridgeisaac0xb51b…b4d9 | Yes | 2,273 | 11.0¢ | $148 | Proven+$2.35 per $100 · 2,451 bets |
| 4trv0xbb56…0720 | Yes | 2,222 | 9.0¢ | $144 | — |
| btgr0x3751…f684 | Yes | 2,152 | 7.9¢ | $140 | New0 settled bets |
| enthg0xf6d6…68a6 | Yes | 2,083 | 9.0¢ | $135 | — |
| PROPHET.NOTES0xcb11…0d5e | Yes | 2,000 | 15.0¢ | $130 | Positive+$1.10 per $100 · 543 bets |
| umu6990x6b80…f445 | Yes | 1,910 | 10.0¢ | $124 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 113 | 92.3¢ | $106 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0x1eb4…3022 | No | 108 | 93.0¢ | $101 | New44 settled bets |
| Gl4d0x1e3a…9e14 | Yes | 1,500 | 5.0¢ | $97 | Positive+$1.49 per $100 · 2,393 bets |
| GlennQuagmire0x610c…90d2 | No | 100 | 91.0¢ | $94 | — |
| ofcourseistillloveyou20190xcea0…3d06 | No | 100 | 92.0¢ | $94 | Break-even+$0.13 per $100 · 1,507 bets |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | No | 100 | 90.0¢ | $93 | Losing−$9.67 per $100 · 44,379+ bets · updating |
| pgo40x54f6…8a1f | Yes | 1,217 | 6.0¢ | $79 | — |
| htng0xe805…3bab | Yes | 1,217 | 6.0¢ | $79 | — |
| pppps0xa011…5490 | Yes | 1,202 | 5.1¢ | $78 | — |
| mkln0x8c3e…208d | Yes | 1,166 | 8.6¢ | $76 | New11 settled bets |
| hinnnat0xc829…e6e5 | Yes | 1,111 | 9.0¢ | $72 | New5 settled bets |
| Coldonn1010xe6fd…8bc3 | Yes | 1,057 | 8.0¢ | $69 | — |
| 0xbec8…6695 | Yes | 1,020 | 7.9¢ | $66 | — |
| paula0xa0xed86…6ee1 | Yes | 1,006 | 9.9¢ | $65 | New94 settled bets |
| bigfreerman0x5b68…bdef | Yes | 1,000 | 9.0¢ | $65 | — |
| krill8100xde5a…2251 | Yes | 1,000 | 9.0¢ | $65 | New46 settled bets |
| bogdanvelli0xd4e2…3c0c | No | 69 | 94.0¢ | $64 | — |
| whaleP10x5b1d…8895 | No | 68 | 93.6¢ | $64 | — |
| VingardiumLeviosa0xd6b4…9a46 | No | 56 | 94.0¢ | $52 | — |
| EatEmAll0xd29c…ddcc | Yes | 800 | 7.0¢ | $52 | — |
| rIdbaplyuh0x1f20…db7c | No | 49 | 95.0¢ | $46 | New18 settled bets |
| Relaccsed0xa6b7…d5f3 | Yes | 632 | 8.7¢ | $41 | — |
| regregr0xcbe2…b059 | No | 40 | 94.0¢ | $37 | — |
| vadret0xe6d0…5b15 | No | 40 | 94.0¢ | $37 | — |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | No | 38 | 89.0¢ | $35 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| sentientsnake0x105c…b786 | Yes | 500 | 5.0¢ | $33 | Positive+$1.56 per $100 · 102 bets |
| Mecky0xa82b…5220 | Yes | 500 | 8.0¢ | $33 | Positive+$3.93 per $100 · 2,966 bets |
| 0x2c19…e3c6 | Yes | 499 | 10.0¢ | $32 | New16 settled bets |
| 0xb4f6…eada | No | 32 | 93.0¢ | $30 | — |
| theSideProject0xe206…153d | No | 29 | 90.0¢ | $28 | — |
| ynj4kznihdow0x5c53…0109 | No | 27 | 92.5¢ | $26 | — |
| Wolibear0xbec8…d919 | No | 25 | 91.0¢ | $23 | Positive+$4.27 per $100 · 133 bets |
| SlavaRUKNY0x8d64…5deb | No | 22 | 93.0¢ | $20 | — |
| geonb0x7558…970a | No | 21 | 94.0¢ | $20 | — |
| utb0xdaea…49f9 | Yes | 300 | 7.0¢ | $19 | New18 settled bets |
| TimberShadeFox0xb654…67d4 | Yes | 274 | 7.4¢ | $18 | — |
| AstralHollow0xb33c…ddd1 | Yes | 253 | 7.3¢ | $16 | — |
| newnewuser0x1dd1…a156 | Yes | 234 | 7.6¢ | $15 | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 737 bets |
| 0x0f18…5b28 | No | 16 | 93.0¢ | $15 | Break-even−$0.95 per $100 · 3,585 bets |
| GeN7870x788f…8730 | No | 16 | 91.0¢ | $15 | — |
| sqaolkytrpoi0xd6dd…98ee | Yes | 230 | 11.0¢ | $15 | Proven+$5.99 per $100 · 3,127 bets |
| 0x08ef…e466 | No | 15 | 93.0¢ | $14 | Losing−$2.53 per $100 · 1,174 bets |
| WintercrestPath0x47db…3b91 | Yes | 214 | 7.2¢ | $14 | New60 settled bets |
| bobo0350x7d78…ffa6 | Yes | 202 | 6.0¢ | $13 | Positive+$4.69 per $100 · 278 bets |
| MFS-0000x5073…16a7 | Yes | 200 | 9.0¢ | $13 | Break-even+$0.88 per $100 · 483 bets |
| 0x71fd…5132 | No | 12 | 84.6¢ | $11 | — |
| tradingjoe190x05cf…5fa9 | No | 11 | 92.0¢ | $10 | Proven+$2.32 per $100 · 119 bets |
| 0xf610…741c | Yes | 155 | 13.1¢ | $10 | — |
| eratoxtenex0x0b65…013e | Yes | 153 | 10.0¢ | $10 | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 845 bets |
| purebaby0xe23b…f147 | Yes | 153 | 7.0¢ | $10 | — |
| gaut63750x5874…05f7 | No | 10 | 89.0¢ | $9 | — |
| asdfll10x601f…bb82 | No | 10 | 88.0¢ | $9 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 104 | 8.0¢ | $7 | Losing−$2.70 per $100 · 123,093 bets |
| 0x8ef7…2fed | Yes | 99 | 9.0¢ | $6 | — |
| benjud670xca35…1080 | Yes | 89 | 7.9¢ | $6 | New30 settled bets |
| nizi150x4177…57df | Yes | 83 | 6.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$48.00 per $100 · 191 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 60 | 8.0¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,934 bets |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | Yes | 50 | 7.0¢ | $3 | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 3,292 bets |
| bdkong0x5d5a…1923 | Yes | 50 | 8.0¢ | $3 | — |
| tinman20x9bae…5d34 | Yes | 50 | 8.0¢ | $3 | — |
| RATHMA40xf9ac…806e | Yes | 50 | 8.0¢ | $3 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.