Market
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 16:54 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KrackenSruster0xd44e…67e2 | No | 11,128 | 89.6¢ | $10.9K | Proven+$10.52 per $100 · 893 bets |
| yevhenry0x0164…9ed6 | No | 5,141 | 94.3¢ | $5.06K | Positive+$1.17 per $100 · 1,052 bets |
| Deabrest0x5063…773d | No | 3,154 | 87.9¢ | $3.1K | — |
| Art08880x161a…b515 | No | 2,368 | 88.7¢ | $2.33K | Proven+$2.02 per $100 · 384 bets |
| Reimbroq0x6a94…730f | No | 826 | 90.9¢ | $813 | — |
| 0x8931…a90c | No | 368 | 96.0¢ | $362 | Break-even+$0.17 per $100 · 611 bets |
| serferer0xdc70…cc56 | No | 324 | 94.4¢ | $319 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 271 | 92.9¢ | $266 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,947 bets |
| 5atka0x1c26…6e31 | No | 200 | 86.5¢ | $197 | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 6,495 bets |
| tttt1230xdf40…38b8 | No | 200 | 86.0¢ | $197 | Positive+$2.19 per $100 · 3,002 bets |
| tzquantalpha0010x5923…49cd | No | 193 | 94.8¢ | $190 | Break-even+$0.40 per $100 · 627 bets |
| RTM4k0xbe84…e34e | No | 184 | 91.0¢ | $181 | — |
| hauauau0x03ad…72bb | No | 172 | 90.7¢ | $169 | — |
| 0xd11c…0d06 | No | 132 | 91.9¢ | $130 | — |
| AlexZA30x5c5b…1a6d | No | 110 | 95.5¢ | $108 | Positive+$4.62 per $100 · 181 bets |
| BerkshireHahaway0x7f29…0760 | No | 103 | 96.8¢ | $102 | Break-even−$0.09 per $100 · 1,494 bets |
| 0xafa7…6e67 | No | 90 | 92.7¢ | $88 | — |
| Voidofhype0x10e1…aa05 | Yes | 5,150 | 12.0¢ | $82 | Losing−$3.06 per $100 · 225 bets |
| 0x37ce…23b2 | No | 84 | 84.7¢ | $82 | — |
| Till19860x95cd…8efe | Yes | 4,217 | 14.2¢ | $67 | — |
| 572849100x856a…4ea2 | No | 67 | 94.9¢ | $66 | New18 settled bets |
| m-schneider.berlin0x985d…0b1a | No | 65 | 97.3¢ | $64 | — |
| MixTapeTony0x3f22…ff69 | No | 64 | 91.0¢ | $63 | — |
| 0x2814…5596 | Yes | 3,935 | 11.7¢ | $63 | — |
| alexandro090xba1b…6e84 | No | 63 | 97.1¢ | $62 | — |
| 0x20a7…d961 | No | 59 | 86.0¢ | $58 | — |
| albertmill0xde58…e2b5 | No | 58 | 97.3¢ | $57 | — |
| goobdoy0xab6d…30ee | No | 57 | 97.1¢ | $57 | — |
| tugoserya0xaa63…1546 | No | 54 | 97.3¢ | $53 | — |
| pashokthepashtet0x91e4…26cc | No | 51 | 97.5¢ | $50 | — |
| nefed980xc0e8…3305 | No | 48 | 97.4¢ | $47 | — |
| Cant0x56be…8cff | No | 40 | 88.0¢ | $39 | — |
| 0x0409…b9a6 | No | 40 | 96.7¢ | $39 | — |
| thmileto0x5bef…f8c4 | No | 34 | 88.0¢ | $34 | — |
| peter.rabbit0x6b13…28df | No | 30 | 92.0¢ | $30 | — |
| Drewerk210xb34a…6e39 | No | 30 | 89.0¢ | $30 | — |
| Real-Wilson0xdda0…edaa | No | 30 | 91.0¢ | $30 | — |
| DumplingBMF0x8f69…7df1 | No | 21 | 82.0¢ | $21 | Proven+$2.52 per $100 · 3,946 bets |
| rolller0x3b7b…2d1a | No | 20 | 84.0¢ | $20 | — |
| ImJustKen0x9d84…1344 | Yes | 1,110 | 16.5¢ | $18 | Proven+$2.12 per $100 · 17,781 bets |
| troawa0x0d95…d4be | Yes | 1,093 | 10.8¢ | $17 | — |
| emmanuelgoldstein0x4d13…53aa | No | 17 | 86.0¢ | $17 | — |
| 0x42b2…4be3 | No | 17 | 86.0¢ | $17 | — |
| ArtmanBOT0xfbe3…4da5 | No | 17 | 89.0¢ | $17 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 899 | 2.3¢ | $14 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| seoul0x3559…4d76 | Yes | 790 | 15.0¢ | $13 | — |
| Perypery0x0a7a…df1b | Yes | 750 | 2.0¢ | $12 | Positive+$11.86 per $100 · 5,341 bets |
| 0x5ef9…5724 | No | 11 | 91.0¢ | $11 | — |
| katsamu0x1375…18ca | No | 11 | 91.0¢ | $11 | — |
| 0x1eb4…3022 | No | 11 | 91.0¢ | $11 | New44 settled bets |
| 0xa6ef…9f24 | No | 10 | 96.1¢ | $10 | — |
| Biomaster0x4add…8cdf | No | 10 | 89.6¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x127a…3344 | No | 10 | 82.0¢ | $10 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 606 | 1.1¢ | $10 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| 0x9fe7…846b | No | 9 | 97.0¢ | $9 | — |
| Lavincey0x1cdd…e595 | No | 8 | 88.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$7.89 per $100 · 44,077+ bets · updating |
| 0x49e6…7fe2 | No | 8 | 97.0¢ | $7 | — |
| crop?0xe308…309c | Yes | 456 | 11.0¢ | $7 | — |
| 0x12dd…f2be | Yes | 419 | 13.7¢ | $7 | — |
| alpaca0x5da5…e620 | Yes | 406 | 4.9¢ | $6 | Losing−$6.68 per $100 · 287 bets |
| 0xcca9…4c9f | Yes | 401 | 12.5¢ | $6 | Break-even−$0.50 per $100 · 265 bets |
| paranoun0x6988…f556 | Yes | 400 | 12.0¢ | $6 | — |
| HES0xdad6…b754 | Yes | 344 | 9.5¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x688b…49f5 | Yes | 311 | 1.6¢ | $5 | — |
| AgentKingKong0x2f60…445f | Yes | 300 | 16.0¢ | $5 | — |
| legspread0x0845…c4ed | Yes | 285 | 4.3¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x49e7…8ce0 | Yes | 271 | 3.1¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x9e6b…b20a | Yes | 250 | 13.2¢ | $4 | — |
| furioe0xe9d2…1a48 | Yes | 227 | 11.0¢ | $4 | — |
| patosche0x86b3…5bfa | Yes | 222 | 2.7¢ | $4 | — |
| Opium40xe299…34cd | Yes | 218 | 18.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x20d1…43b5 | Yes | 212 | 11.8¢ | $3 | — |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 164 | 8.6¢ | $3 | Losing−$2.72 per $100 · 78,097+ bets · updating |
| porcorosso0xe2b0…5bae | Yes | 152 | 3.3¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xde2f…526e | Yes | 149 | 2.6¢ | $2 | — |
| thecaricature0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | 140 | 9.3¢ | $2 | Losing−$5.94 per $100 · 8,489 bets |
| 0x6b00…cfbd | Yes | 104 | 16.0¢ | $2 | — |
| wxufao680xd776…674c | Yes | 103 | 2.9¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x6dae…e45a | Yes | 102 | 14.1¢ | $2 | — |
| Amirata17plus0x81f4…a1cd | Yes | 101 | 4.9¢ | $2 | — |
| VatnikPride0x2384…3e0b | Yes | 100 | 11.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Intemelio0x5f63…25b7 | Yes | 100 | 10.0¢ | $2 | — |
| vitaly-2030xa9b1…05d8 | Yes | 100 | 14.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Tsuntrade0xee8e…bbe0 | Yes | 100 | 12.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Mitakaasa70x6312…f94e | Yes | 99 | 17.9¢ | $2 | Losing−$2.49 per $100 · 2,040 bets |
| 0xbcf3…7464 | Yes | 95 | 10.5¢ | $2 | — |
| feola40300x7600…787e | Yes | 79 | 6.3¢ | $1 | — |
| Stubba0x7cf8…a95c | Yes | 77 | 13.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xa97e…24ff | Yes | 68 | 12.0¢ | $1 | — |
| crossFiter0x1284…3694 | Yes | 67 | 1.5¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.65 per $100 · 3,178 bets |
| crypto-basenji0x72f7…92f7 | Yes | 65 | 13.0¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.19 per $100 · 465 bets |
| 0xed5b…8e60 | Yes | 56 | 18.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Leastrades0x67b0…950a | Yes | 54 | 3.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x3f6f…e536 | Yes | 50 | 10.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Hazya0xe795…6068 | Yes | 42 | 12.0¢ | $1 | — |
| CallMeDaddyBaby0xa536…0190 | Yes | 41 | 2.4¢ | $1 | — |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 40 | 1.5¢ | $1 | — |
| TRHU0x1e44…8d50 | No | 1 | 97.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x22bf…8642 | Yes | 36 | 2.8¢ | $1 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.