Market

Trump out as President before 2027?

Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 22:20 UTC. Not financial advice.

Market

Chance of Yes

None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.

Proven traders, money on each side

1 proven trader is on Yes, 8 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.

Top holders after netting each trader's Yes shares against their No shares
Trader	Side	Shares	Bought at	Worth now	Record
SecondWindCapital0x8c80…02c3	No	410,616	85.4¢	$395K	New79 settled bets
elmcap20xed10…d2e5	No	340,519	92.5¢	$328K	Break-even

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.

Decided by: Yes if Trump resigns or is removed as President, or otherwise ceases to be President, for any period by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.§1
Only permanent removal: Only permanent removal from office will qualify.§4
Temporary removal: Temporary removal, such as a temporary 25th Amendment Section 3 invocation or an unsustained Section 4 invocation, will not count.§5
Impeachment no removal: Impeachment without removal will not count.§5
Sustained 25th Amendment: A sustained Section 4 invocation, where both Houses uphold the determination by two-thirds vote, will qualify for Yes.§6
Counted: Donald Trump ceasing to be President of the United States, including resignation or removal.§1
Source: A consensus of credible reporting.§7
Closes: Jan 1, 2027 · 04:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 22:20 UTC. Not financial advice.