Market · 4 of 15 outcomes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by September 30, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 14:24 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GenaCyberpunk0x816f…ace1 | Yes | 207 | 58.1¢ | $128 | New1 settled bet |
| newnewuser0x1dd1…a156 | Yes | 193 | 62.0¢ | $120 | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 737 bets |
| 0x0959…6c45 | No | 265 | 37.7¢ | $101 | New5 settled bets |
| 0x36da…907b | Yes | 90 | 63.0¢ | $56 | Break-even−$0.98 per $100 · 399 bets |
| uzurpator0x72c5…668e | Yes | 79 | 60.0¢ | $49 | — |
| 0xf9ea…7b04 | No | 102 | 39.9¢ | $39 | — |
| omsode0x82bd…335e | Yes | 60 | 58.0¢ | $37 | Losing−$1.89 per $100 · 146 bets |
| p0l780x66c6…24af | No | 93 | 43.0¢ | $35 | New6 settled bets |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | No | 53 | 32.1¢ | $20 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| NothingEverHappens120x407d…efcd | Yes | 32 | 59.7¢ | $20 | Proven+$4.99 per $100 · 294 bets |
| Milin-dc0x2762…2cf6 | No | 40 | 41.0¢ | $15 | Break-even+$0.55 per $100 · 1,651 bets |
| omnibus-4247790x4247…91c4 | No | 40 | 49.0¢ | $15 | Losing−$12.51 per $100 · 6,039 bets |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | Yes | 20 | 58.0¢ | $12 | Break-even+$0.33 per $100 · 3,303 bets |
| Heinrich18710x46f4…5352 | No | 24 | 42.2¢ | $9 | Losing−$4.94 per $100 · 422 bets |
| Zasmes0x66be…1148 | Yes | 14 | 62.0¢ | $9 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 258 bets |
| 0xc375…a002 | No | 18 | 40.0¢ | $7 | — |
| VolodymyrMudryk0x18fa…9cf4 | No | 13 | 38.0¢ | $5 | New89 settled bets |
| Susycaria0x504f…6fac | No | 13 | 38.0¢ | $5 | New50 settled bets |
| 0xf9c4…177a | No | 12 | 43.4¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x3c5b…2008 | No | 5 | 50.0¢ | $2 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 5 | 34.0¢ | $2 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,731 bets |
| EliteBetter0x81c9…4a47 | No | 5 | 37.0¢ | $2 | Proven+$2.39 per $100 · 1,132 bets |
| Agitator0xc4c6…63c1 | No | 5 | 40.0¢ | $2 | — |
| thunderquack0x07fd…ad26 | No | 3 | 40.0¢ | $1 | Proven+$5.90 per $100 · 614 bets |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | 1 | 31.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,308 bets |
| 0xca75…0a64 | Yes | 1 | 51.0¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 59.5¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | Yes | 0 | 58.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.71 per $100 · 69,942+ bets · updating |
| hithitfar0xe53c…e569 | No | 0 | 33.3¢ | $0 | Proven+$7.52 per $100 · 3,961 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.