Market · 2 of 15 outcomes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 09:31 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x36da…907b | Yes | 1,422 | 66.9¢ | $967 | Losing−$1.36 per $100 · 394 bets |
| newnewuser0x1dd1…a156 | No | 1,021 | 33.0¢ | $327 | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 737 bets |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | Yes | 371 | 63.5¢ | $252 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| accelarated0x39df…644b | No | 353 | 35.4¢ | $113 | Losing−$2.03 per $100 · 388 bets |
| Crayon0xc95c…5e0b | No | 120 | 34.1¢ | $38 | — |
| 0xf9ea…7b04 | No | 116 | 34.5¢ | $37 | — |
| 0xff7c…b233 | Yes | 42 | 64.0¢ | $29 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| Zasmes0x66be…1148 | Yes | 35 | 67.0¢ | $24 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 258 bets |
| p0l780x66c6…24af | No | 56 | 35.6¢ | $18 | New6 settled bets |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | No | 53 | 42.0¢ | $17 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| dovehawk0x197e…cc1b | No | 51 | 33.6¢ | $16 | — |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | No | 50 | 33.0¢ | $16 | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 3,292 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 20 | 64.9¢ | $14 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,685 bets |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 20 | 66.0¢ | $14 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,308 bets |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | Yes | 18 | 67.2¢ | $12 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| 0x9051…17ab | Yes | 15 | 67.0¢ | $10 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 15 | 66.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$2.66 per $100 · 123,344 bets |
| Heinrich18710x46f4…5352 | No | 28 | 35.2¢ | $9 | Losing−$4.94 per $100 · 422 bets |
| rgasgasg0x5978…fd52 | No | 28 | 36.0¢ | $9 | — |
| hp2102100x2ef8…b0f4 | Yes | 12 | 64.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$1.53 per $100 · 351 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 10 | 69.0¢ | $6 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,940 bets |
| Voland67770xc23e…6499 | No | 20 | 29.0¢ | $6 | New18 settled bets |
| KnightianUncertainty0x58e1…f652 | No | 19 | 27.0¢ | $6 | New45 settled bets |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | No | 15 | 31.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$2.72 per $100 · 78,097+ bets · updating |
| Susycaria0x504f…6fac | No | 14 | 34.7¢ | $5 | New50 settled bets |
| 0xbd84…1292 | No | 14 | 36.4¢ | $4 | — |
| chenliwang0x6e8a…8343 | No | 12 | 35.0¢ | $4 | — |
| Pskkwk0x6baf…cd49 | Yes | 3 | 63.0¢ | $2 | — |
| lolzzzlol0x7b25…e4be | No | 3 | 32.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$8.42 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| badatthis0x75ac…33d7 | No | 3 | 32.0¢ | $1 | Proven+$6.73 per $100 · 6,671 bets |
| 0x7275…5522 | No | 3 | 35.0¢ | $1 | — |
| eatitar0xb6d9…11e9 | No | 3 | 36.0¢ | $1 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 64.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| hithitfar0xe53c…e569 | Yes | 0 | 58.0¢ | $0 | Proven+$7.52 per $100 · 3,961 bets |
| GeorgiiRach0x296a…fb2f | Yes | 0 | 65.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.92 per $100 · 1,466 bets |
| ViscaElBarca0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | 0 | 66.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.