Market · 8 of 15 outcomes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 09:25 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CORWIL0x3c67…e1a8 | Yes | 3,000 | 49.9¢ | $1.43K | New76 settled bets |
| 0x36da…907b | No | 1,954 | 53.7¢ | $1.03K | Losing−$1.36 per $100 · 394 bets |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | No | 1,067 | 50.7¢ | $560 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| newnewuser0x1dd1…a156 | Yes | 1,150 | 47.4¢ | $546 | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 737 bets |
| KnightianUncertainty0x58e1…f652 | No | 1,000 | 50.0¢ | $525 | New45 settled bets |
| wenzys0x35dd…75f3 | Yes | 1,071 | 46.0¢ | $509 | — |
| Risto0xa173…3315 | Yes | 1,000 | 51.0¢ | $475 | Positive+$2.12 per $100 · 484 bets |
| incognito110x4193…c9b6 | No | 805 | 53.0¢ | $423 | — |
| 0xd056…f1be | No | 658 | 51.1¢ | $345 | Positive+$2.36 per $100 · 1,760 bets |
| Gluckyklucky0x97d3…3f3c | Yes | 616 | 49.1¢ | $293 | — |
| Coldonn1010xe6fd…8bc3 | No | 504 | 48.0¢ | $265 | — |
| unsecured73080xe0d9…8483 | No | 412 | 56.0¢ | $216 | — |
| 0xb886…81b3 | Yes | 453 | 46.9¢ | $215 | Break-even+$0.69 per $100 · 1,518 bets |
| 8811120xd426…334a | No | 400 | 53.0¢ | $210 | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| makemoney20250xe3a1…3c87 | Yes | 432 | 47.0¢ | $205 | Positive+$1.64 per $100 · 1,224 bets |
| SpiceRider0x1b5e…6cb7 | No | 313 | 47.9¢ | $165 | — |
| yurasokol0x1a5d…2c8c | No | 270 | 53.6¢ | $142 | — |
| 0x0959…6c45 | No | 243 | 53.4¢ | $128 | New5 settled bets |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | Yes | 258 | 48.7¢ | $122 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| 0xb322…27c0 | Yes | 237 | 52.3¢ | $112 | — |
| p0l780x66c6…24af | No | 207 | 48.2¢ | $109 | New6 settled bets |
| piquqp0x6f8f…9056 | No | 200 | 50.0¢ | $105 | — |
| Runner1090x6a67…df6f | No | 175 | 52.0¢ | $92 | Positive+$2.00 per $100 · 667 bets |
| ArturRehi0x6cc8…65a4 | No | 169 | 51.0¢ | $89 | — |
| gesst0xadaf…f9f2 | Yes | 160 | 52.0¢ | $76 | Proven+$17.17 per $100 · 566 bets |
| GenaCyberpunk0x816f…ace1 | Yes | 119 | 49.3¢ | $56 | New1 settled bet |
| Yles0xdd4d…a125 | No | 100 | 54.0¢ | $53 | — |
| mehanizator0xaaf7…2e27 | Yes | 100 | 52.0¢ | $48 | Positive+$3.89 per $100 · 8,678 bets |
| 0x19bb…f0f5 | Yes | 92 | 54.8¢ | $44 | New41 settled bets |
| 0x65483555411585564410x952a…bdc8 | No | 72 | 54.0¢ | $38 | — |
| 0xf9ea…7b04 | No | 55 | 49.2¢ | $29 | — |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | No | 50 | 53.0¢ | $26 | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 3,292 bets |
| V4grant0xf5bb…bdb8 | Yes | 54 | 46.0¢ | $26 | — |
| BigBoiBettin0x48ee…008c | Yes | 50 | 50.0¢ | $24 | Positive+$19.61 per $100 · 263 bets |
| DeadBlonde0x1375…4f7b | Yes | 49 | 51.0¢ | $23 | — |
| timeistmoney0xf0ed…87b1 | No | 43 | 48.0¢ | $23 | — |
| 0x4e84…ef69 | No | 42 | 48.0¢ | $22 | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 809 bets |
| babymarv0xb621…8dcd | No | 40 | 53.0¢ | $21 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 36 | 52.0¢ | $17 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| Zasmes0x66be…1148 | Yes | 35 | 48.2¢ | $17 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 258 bets |
| zachary2270xff94…c347 | No | 25 | 49.0¢ | $13 | — |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | No | 21 | 45.0¢ | $11 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| Golosa0xa5c2…1bbe | No | 21 | 48.0¢ | $11 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 21 | 52.0¢ | $11 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,685 bets |
| nanamomo0xdfd4…e2d4 | No | 20 | 53.0¢ | $11 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 20 | 49.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| ardenypoput10x8560…71b0 | Yes | 21 | 55.0¢ | $10 | — |
| Delarge0xabd8…141d | Yes | 20 | 49.0¢ | $10 | — |
| Milin-dc0x2762…2cf6 | Yes | 20 | 47.0¢ | $9 | Break-even+$0.55 per $100 · 1,651 bets |
| Tevye0x02ce…4c88 | Yes | 20 | 51.0¢ | $9 | Losing−$9.21 per $100 · 107 bets |
| Maksym840xd182…047d | No | 18 | 50.0¢ | $9 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 17 | 52.8¢ | $9 | Losing−$2.67 per $100 · 123,278+ bets · updating |
| 0x1a09…8501 | No | 15 | 47.0¢ | $8 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 15 | 54.3¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,940 bets |
| 0x85f9…fd10 | No | 13 | 53.0¢ | $7 | — |
| xrain0x3542…2b89 | Yes | 14 | 47.0¢ | $7 | — |
| Oleg20260x5b34…2367 | No | 10 | 50.0¢ | $5 | — |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | Yes | 11 | 47.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| Yanis9090x27ff…a209 | No | 9 | 54.0¢ | $5 | — |
| gimbobo0xd7a2…2b21 | Yes | 10 | 46.0¢ | $5 | — |
| VolodymyrMudryk0x18fa…9cf4 | No | 9 | 47.0¢ | $4 | New89 settled bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 6 | 53.0¢ | $3 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0x61f2…e77a | No | 5 | 52.0¢ | $3 | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 1,637 bets |
| BoberKurwaYaPerdole0x4618…f25e | Yes | 5 | 48.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Agitator0xc4c6…63c1 | No | 4 | 54.0¢ | $2 | — |
| MaxGold19170x3606…caca | No | 3 | 50.0¢ | $2 | — |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | Yes | 2 | 50.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$3.71 per $100 · 4,954 bets |
| Olikuper0x0b6a…3ace | No | 2 | 54.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x5f4e…db92 | No | 2 | 54.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x2b73…174e | Yes | 0 | 48.0¢ | $0 | — |
| HE110W0R1D0xa86f…022c | No | 0 | 53.0¢ | $0 | — |
| ViscaElBarca0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | 0 | 47.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.