Market · 7 of 15 outcomes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 08:14 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
11 proven traders are on Yes, 8 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| siick0xf9b7…60a4 | No | 11,826 | 45.0¢ | $5.85K | Proven+$3.60 per $100 · 1,967 bets |
| Hakei.0x97ea…3363 | Yes | 9,231 | 54.3¢ | $4.66K | Proven+$4.64 per $100 · 2,040 bets |
| SirHarryOakes0x5685…62e2 | No | 4,242 | 49.0¢ | $2.1K | Proven+$5.58 per $100 · 297 bets |
| lostapiv0x4655…b1bc | Yes | 3,786 | 52.9¢ | $1.91K | New52 settled bets |
| 0x06d3…b956 | No | 2,470 | 43.1¢ | $1.22K | New90 settled bets |
| JoeBlack010x9ca1…13b5 | No | 1,882 | 40.6¢ | $932 | Proven+$2.66 per $100 · 1,116 bets |
| WzapS0x32b4…7f09 | No | 1,863 | 53.7¢ | $922 | New12 settled bets |
| GenaCyberpunk0x816f…ace1 | Yes | 1,759 | 53.1¢ | $888 | New1 settled bet |
| sdiff1230xd352…4ad6 | Yes | 1,535 | 53.0¢ | $775 | Break-even−$0.69 per $100 · 833 bets |
| hku20900xa494…5e1d | Yes | 1,517 | 52.7¢ | $766 | — |
| 8811120xd426…334a | Yes | 1,500 | 46.7¢ | $757 | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| 0x393d…6b95 | No | 1,364 | 51.3¢ | $675 | Losing−$11.95 per $100 · 1,435 bets |
| kukubaja0xa0c3…5b9a | Yes | 1,200 | 63.2¢ | $606 | Positive+$1.05 per $100 · 1,092 bets |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | Yes | 1,061 | 52.4¢ | $536 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| unsecured73080xe0d9…8483 | No | 923 | 46.8¢ | $457 | — |
| PaddyAlpha0x9ad0…bf3d | Yes | 829 | 53.0¢ | $418 | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 3,059 bets |
| mehanizator0xaaf7…2e27 | Yes | 800 | 52.6¢ | $404 | Positive+$3.89 per $100 · 8,678 bets |
| Gl4d0x1e3a…9e14 | Yes | 759 | 51.0¢ | $383 | Positive+$1.49 per $100 · 2,393 bets |
| Metusalem0xa65c…32fb | Yes | 604 | 50.7¢ | $305 | — |
| 0x4e84…ef69 | Yes | 603 | 63.0¢ | $305 | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 809 bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | Yes | 600 | 61.5¢ | $303 | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| green90x6d79…ae69 | No | 600 | 44.0¢ | $297 | Proven+$7.75 per $100 · 149 bets |
| p0l780x66c6…24af | No | 594 | 50.5¢ | $294 | New6 settled bets |
| newnewuser0x1dd1…a156 | No | 583 | 45.0¢ | $288 | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 737 bets |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | Yes | 565 | 70.0¢ | $285 | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,964 bets |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | Yes | 544 | 67.5¢ | $275 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 468 | 47.6¢ | $232 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| Porx0xa0bc…d428 | Yes | 455 | 50.7¢ | $230 | Proven+$7.70 per $100 · 3,050 bets |
| peter2397840x7d58…cfcc | Yes | 440 | 54.0¢ | $222 | Break-even+$0.35 per $100 · 1,700 bets |
| 0xf9ea…7b04 | No | 431 | 49.3¢ | $213 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 428 | 43.3¢ | $212 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,938 bets |
| lottonakamoto0x2884…d0c3 | Yes | 396 | 63.6¢ | $200 | Break-even+$0.80 per $100 · 990 bets |
| CORWIL0x3c67…e1a8 | Yes | 359 | 52.0¢ | $181 | New76 settled bets |
| arii0x3a32…562e | Yes | 350 | 49.6¢ | $177 | Losing−$8.97 per $100 · 256 bets |
| 0x36da…907b | No | 313 | 49.0¢ | $155 | Losing−$1.36 per $100 · 394 bets |
| 0xc572…66fd | No | 294 | 37.4¢ | $145 | — |
| hopedieslast0x5739…5f1a | Yes | 267 | 45.0¢ | $135 | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 244 bets |
| iurii0x069f…b749 | No | 235 | 42.6¢ | $116 | New69 settled bets |
| Heinrich18710x46f4…5352 | No | 225 | 50.3¢ | $111 | Losing−$4.94 per $100 · 422 bets |
| selters0x2d84…72da | No | 209 | 46.9¢ | $103 | Proven+$5.50 per $100 · 150 bets |
| Marty-Byrde0xe0a2…a349 | No | 206 | 44.3¢ | $102 | — |
| lilili990xbc7c…c08e | Yes | 200 | 50.0¢ | $101 | — |
| 0xd0f8…6b50 | Yes | 200 | 50.0¢ | $101 | Proven+$11.40 per $100 · 266 bets |
| sakamotomeon0x3e0f…f190 | No | 202 | 49.5¢ | $100 | New1 settled bet |
| doctorzhao0x5292…0a64 | No | 200 | 50.0¢ | $99 | New2 settled bets |
| 0x0959…6c45 | No | 197 | 50.7¢ | $98 | New5 settled bets |
| 0xa53f…a163 | No | 181 | 36.4¢ | $89 | — |
| WastedL0xd56c…b7d8 | Yes | 173 | 57.9¢ | $87 | — |
| 0xde7a…73ab | No | 175 | 47.2¢ | $87 | — |
| gogo470x468b…09f4 | Yes | 152 | 53.8¢ | $77 | New14 settled bets |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | Yes | 148 | 51.6¢ | $75 | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
| trader-c52fead80xc52f…0981 | No | 144 | 36.0¢ | $71 | — |
| 0x0c2c…dce3 | No | 142 | 49.3¢ | $70 | Proven+$5.52 per $100 · 738 bets |
| MonacoLover0xb8b4…1f6e | Yes | 126 | 46.0¢ | $63 | Losing−$9.91 per $100 · 139 bets |
| sergeo14890xfc03…d554 | No | 111 | 44.0¢ | $55 | — |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | No | 110 | 43.0¢ | $55 | Losing−$6.87 per $100 · 49,874+ bets · updating |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | No | 108 | 47.1¢ | $53 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| zojmma0xc3be…0e17 | Yes | 102 | 59.0¢ | $51 | — |
| bfu7780x2506…a294 | Yes | 100 | 50.0¢ | $51 | Break-even−$0.03 per $100 · 118 bets |
| nunu70x4329…3ff8 | Yes | 100 | 50.0¢ | $51 | New88 settled bets |
| guuff0x46e8…9151 | Yes | 100 | 50.0¢ | $51 | Break-even−$0.18 per $100 · 127 bets |
| maybebrian0x580a…a236 | Yes | 100 | 54.0¢ | $51 | Proven+$18.08 per $100 · 117 bets |
| mumutu0x8d10…cf27 | Yes | 100 | 49.0¢ | $50 | — |
| Yles0xdd4d…a125 | No | 101 | 51.7¢ | $50 | — |
| efghvcdbjkpqwo0xe0a5…f6a4 | No | 100 | 48.0¢ | $50 | New78 settled bets |
| badatthis0x75ac…33d7 | Yes | 89 | 48.0¢ | $45 | Proven+$6.73 per $100 · 6,671 bets |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | No | 90 | 49.8¢ | $45 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| ImJustDoge0xee94…404d | Yes | 70 | 64.9¢ | $35 | — |
| Jeesuksenmorsian0x33af…675e | Yes | 60 | 54.0¢ | $30 | Positive+$8.78 per $100 · 248 bets |
| sdvwgw232qverw0x7ecd…d63f | No | 60 | 54.0¢ | $30 | Break-even−$0.75 per $100 · 119 bets |
| Raidloner0xf240…f825 | Yes | 59 | 51.1¢ | $30 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 55 | 44.6¢ | $27 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,637 bets |
| lioumang0xa42a…2d56 | No | 55 | 43.5¢ | $27 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 54 | 46.5¢ | $27 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| BigBoiBettin0x48ee…008c | Yes | 50 | 50.0¢ | $25 | Positive+$19.61 per $100 · 263 bets |
| kirby260xa0d3…5b5e | Yes | 50 | 47.0¢ | $25 | Losing−$6.53 per $100 · 3,226 bets |
| timeistmoney0xf0ed…87b1 | Yes | 49 | 51.0¢ | $25 | — |
| 0xb969…c2c4 | No | 47 | 0.0¢ | $23 | — |
| 0x58d6…efe8 | No | 43 | 43.6¢ | $21 | New1 settled bet |
| unclefei0280xf88b…0ed2 | Yes | 40 | 54.0¢ | $20 | — |
| notthebestbet0x30a6…4b59 | No | 40 | 50.0¢ | $20 | New23 settled bets |
| VolodymyrMudryk0x18fa…9cf4 | No | 39 | 51.0¢ | $19 | New89 settled bets |
| 0x8df9…468c | Yes | 36 | 53.0¢ | $18 | — |
| S8880x0711…f03c | Yes | 35 | 55.0¢ | $18 | Proven+$9.13 per $100 · 9,031 bets |
| smye1000xfb8e…3dc3 | Yes | 34 | 46.0¢ | $17 | Losing−$3.44 per $100 · 5,616 bets |
| Rurik50xe25c…ae63 | Yes | 34 | 51.0¢ | $17 | Proven+$2.55 per $100 · 2,273 bets |
| 0x8ef7…2fed | Yes | 30 | 52.8¢ | $15 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 30 | 47.8¢ | $15 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| garbagefriends0xc5bd…ceaa | Yes | 30 | 56.3¢ | $15 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 1,711 bets |
| Shsjxyse0x31b9…06ce | No | 26 | 38.0¢ | $13 | New60 settled bets |
| Surendipity-Guesser0x3d4d…5ac8 | No | 25 | 48.0¢ | $12 | Losing−$13.35 per $100 · 155 bets |
| new-account-test2220xfe91…4cd3 | No | 25 | 49.2¢ | $12 | — |
| 0xecf9…328a | No | 25 | 47.0¢ | $12 | — |
| Abladollosac0x3e98…5389 | No | 22 | 46.0¢ | $11 | Losing−$25.76 per $100 · 100 bets |
| 0x0662…ba95 | No | 21 | 48.0¢ | $10 | New5 settled bets |
| 0x3f9e…75d5 | No | 20 | 44.0¢ | $10 | New0 settled bets |
| KiraHK10xa87f…864d | No | 20 | 42.0¢ | $10 | — |
| ppl-lol0x38e4…2f0b | No | 20 | 50.0¢ | $10 | New2 settled bets |
| Alta-trola0x56e3…521c | No | 20 | 44.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$4.15 per $100 · 754 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.