Market · 6 of 15 outcomes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 01:45 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | Yes | 620 | 55.4¢ | $335 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| unsecured73080xe0d9…8483 | No | 480 | 41.5¢ | $221 | — |
| Gluckyklucky0x97d3…3f3c | Yes | 192 | 52.9¢ | $103 | — |
| George3d60x4522…20c5 | No | 184 | 49.0¢ | $85 | — |
| Yles0xdd4d…a125 | No | 132 | 47.1¢ | $61 | — |
| p0l780x66c6…24af | No | 128 | 46.8¢ | $59 | — |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | Yes | 98 | 51.0¢ | $53 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| 0x36da…907b | Yes | 94 | 57.0¢ | $51 | Losing−$1.36 per $100 · 394 bets |
| Sheehave0x84a6…29ce | Yes | 56 | 53.3¢ | $30 | — |
| 0x7f4d…966a | No | 57 | 39.9¢ | $26 | — |
| VolodymyrMudryk0x18fa…9cf4 | No | 50 | 43.6¢ | $23 | — |
| 0xf9ea…7b04 | No | 47 | 43.2¢ | $21 | — |
| 0x1736…688c | Yes | 37 | 53.9¢ | $20 | — |
| 0xff7c…b233 | No | 40 | 44.0¢ | $18 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 40 | 46.0¢ | $18 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,489 bets |
| gesoos0x8f78…1141 | Yes | 32 | 56.3¢ | $17 | — |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | Yes | 32 | 51.0¢ | $17 | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 3,292 bets |
| S8880x0711…f03c | Yes | 20 | 57.0¢ | $11 | Proven+$9.13 per $100 · 9,031 bets |
| BigBoiBettin0x48ee…008c | Yes | 20 | 50.0¢ | $11 | Positive+$19.61 per $100 · 263 bets |
| Zasmes0x66be…1148 | Yes | 20 | 52.0¢ | $11 | — |
| Heinrich18710x46f4…5352 | No | 21 | 47.0¢ | $10 | — |
| emmanuelgoldstein0x4d13…53aa | No | 21 | 48.0¢ | $10 | — |
| hp2102100x2ef8…b0f4 | No | 11 | 44.0¢ | $5 | — |
| just-bettor0xa742…9856 | No | 6 | 44.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Agitator0xc4c6…63c1 | No | 4 | 48.0¢ | $2 | — |
| hehekan0x154d…a289 | No | 4 | 49.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xe8c4…ea5c | Yes | 3 | 51.0¢ | $2 | — |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | Yes | 3 | 54.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| OctoGeo0x5222…7437 | No | 2 | 46.0¢ | $1 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 1 | 52.0¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 0 | 46.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| bZk0Uo0x138b…0467 | No | 0 | 36.0¢ | $0 | — |
| ViscaElBarca0xe457…5ab3 | No | 0 | 47.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.