Market · 12 of 15 outcomes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 10:48 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
10 proven traders are on Yes, 5 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | Yes | 17,862 | 28.0¢ | $4.38K | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,266 bets |
| zynxs0x9772…a418 | No | 3,180 | 72.2¢ | $2.4K | — |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | No | 2,514 | 68.9¢ | $1.9K | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| cat-dog0x7056…c95c | No | 2,500 | 72.3¢ | $1.89K | Positive+$21.47 per $100 · 139 bets |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | No | 2,291 | 69.6¢ | $1.73K | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| tr10000x8a8b…375c | No | 2,000 | 78.0¢ | $1.51K | Losing−$2.06 per $100 · 6,303 bets |
| 0x65483555411585564410x952a…bdc8 | No | 1,757 | 78.9¢ | $1.33K | — |
| Trading4Fridge0x2525…b919 | No | 1,674 | 78.9¢ | $1.26K | Proven+$2.05 per $100 · 2,426 bets |
| 0xbfc3…4425 | No | 1,622 | 67.8¢ | $1.22K | — |
| 0x568d…87d0 | No | 1,410 | 71.0¢ | $1.06K | Losing−$7.24 per $100 · 998 bets |
| georgeSt0x2cb5…553b | No | 1,335 | 79.4¢ | $1.01K | New4 settled bets |
| 0x36da…907b | No | 1,165 | 70.2¢ | $880 | Losing−$1.36 per $100 · 394 bets |
| Kwon1230x5da1…54a3 | No | 1,034 | 78.7¢ | $780 | New11 settled bets |
| newnewuser0x1dd1…a156 | No | 865 | 76.3¢ | $653 | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 737 bets |
| 0x5840…4580 | No | 782 | 77.2¢ | $590 | New40 settled bets |
| unsecured73080xe0d9…8483 | No | 734 | 68.1¢ | $554 | — |
| KnureKnume0xcf6a…f9d0 | Yes | 2,200 | 24.3¢ | $539 | Proven+$5.98 per $100 · 1,078 bets |
| 8811120xd426…334a | No | 670 | 73.0¢ | $506 | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| Gluckyklucky0x97d3…3f3c | Yes | 2,045 | 25.6¢ | $501 | — |
| Lamantinka0xbb98…6d3c | No | 603 | 82.9¢ | $455 | — |
| Marty-Byrde0xe0a2…a349 | No | 545 | 72.1¢ | $412 | — |
| Porx0xa0bc…d428 | Yes | 1,555 | 22.8¢ | $381 | Proven+$7.70 per $100 · 3,050 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 384 | 77.0¢ | $290 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,736 bets |
| Dinosaurus070x4304…ac42 | No | 371 | 80.9¢ | $280 | Losing−$16.43 per $100 · 152 bets |
| SaturnStormCube0xad52…11ac | Yes | 1,000 | 22.0¢ | $245 | Proven+$5.83 per $100 · 3,598 bets |
| vartv270xe6e2…e41a | No | 315 | 67.0¢ | $238 | — |
| fljbomjimy0xbdbf…c873 | No | 310 | 66.4¢ | $234 | — |
| kot.v.tance0x5be2…8fa3 | No | 301 | 70.2¢ | $227 | Break-even+$0.79 per $100 · 535 bets |
| Voland67770xc23e…6499 | No | 287 | 70.0¢ | $216 | New18 settled bets |
| 0x0959…6c45 | No | 286 | 69.8¢ | $216 | New5 settled bets |
| smellyEllie0x38f5…6824 | Yes | 868 | 24.0¢ | $213 | Proven+$13.24 per $100 · 3,540 bets |
| Carpfisher0x054b…8477 | No | 271 | 70.0¢ | $205 | Proven+$2.17 per $100 · 259 bets |
| alivedeer0xe0c5…913c | Yes | 800 | 25.1¢ | $196 | Losing−$12.71 per $100 · 427 bets |
| xoda780x5bb5…844e | Yes | 717 | 27.9¢ | $176 | Proven+$13.60 per $100 · 2,106 bets |
| Runner1090x6a67…df6f | No | 225 | 76.0¢ | $170 | Positive+$2.00 per $100 · 671 bets |
| 0x4e84…ef69 | No | 207 | 64.7¢ | $157 | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 809 bets |
| garbagefriends0xc5bd…ceaa | Yes | 626 | 31.1¢ | $153 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 1,711 bets |
| absolutelyfkngnot0xecf3…cf5c | No | 201 | 80.0¢ | $152 | — |
| bartimusmaximus0xaf81…e317 | No | 200 | 67.0¢ | $151 | — |
| 0xd53e…0b73 | Yes | 549 | 28.4¢ | $135 | — |
| arh660xdc27…82ac | No | 163 | 78.0¢ | $123 | — |
| BigBoiBettin0x48ee…008c | Yes | 500 | 29.0¢ | $123 | Positive+$19.61 per $100 · 263 bets |
| acmzsk0x0ef8…0dc3 | No | 162 | 75.2¢ | $122 | New65 settled bets |
| Intravertas0xba94…4e82 | No | 159 | 65.9¢ | $120 | — |
| 0x1ec7…12f7 | No | 149 | 67.0¢ | $113 | Losing−$4.05 per $100 · 456 bets |
| doctorzhao0x5292…0a64 | No | 149 | 67.2¢ | $112 | New2 settled bets |
| p0l780x66c6…24af | No | 147 | 68.0¢ | $111 | New6 settled bets |
| 0xea44…abab | No | 135 | 74.0¢ | $102 | — |
| pandapythoner0x8854…60a2 | No | 129 | 77.0¢ | $98 | — |
| WarriorH0xeed8…35f0 | No | 112 | 76.0¢ | $85 | Positive+$3.66 per $100 · 14,608 bets |
| DrNee0xba62…58e9 | Yes | 339 | 25.3¢ | $83 | Break-even−$0.64 per $100 · 331 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 109 | 67.7¢ | $82 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,641 bets |
| 0xfd02…fb6a | No | 104 | 70.3¢ | $78 | — |
| Zasmes0x66be…1148 | No | 102 | 75.0¢ | $77 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 258 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 100 | 76.0¢ | $76 | Losing−$2.66 per $100 · 123,344 bets |
| negativePNL0x2675…2374 | Yes | 300 | 28.0¢ | $74 | Proven+$11.10 per $100 · 557 bets |
| rocky420050xd6a8…58fd | Yes | 300 | 33.3¢ | $73 | Break-even−$0.22 per $100 · 12,889 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 286 | 32.1¢ | $70 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| 1nvoker10x748a…3c56 | No | 89 | 71.0¢ | $67 | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 914 bets |
| smndmn0x200e…b074 | No | 77 | 71.5¢ | $58 | New72 settled bets |
| 0xb6ce…895d | Yes | 232 | 32.7¢ | $57 | Positive+$1.74 per $100 · 1,065 bets |
| omsode0x82bd…335e | No | 73 | 78.0¢ | $55 | Losing−$1.89 per $100 · 146 bets |
| NellyDora0xca97…5409 | Yes | 222 | 31.4¢ | $54 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 1,328 bets |
| seafoodcapital0xbb8b…4b1c | No | 70 | 71.0¢ | $53 | New19 settled bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 67 | 76.8¢ | $51 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| Peaven0x4b48…35d0 | Yes | 200 | 29.0¢ | $49 | Proven+$10.60 per $100 · 592 bets |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | Yes | 191 | 29.4¢ | $47 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| vsepuchkom0x5603…7a24 | No | 60 | 65.0¢ | $45 | Positive+$1.45 per $100 · 1,916 bets |
| 15billionplus0x6406…bc04 | No | 60 | 76.0¢ | $45 | Losing−$1.90 per $100 · 1,811 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 183 | 29.0¢ | $45 | Proven+$3.96 per $100 · 66,052 bets |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | Yes | 182 | 27.7¢ | $45 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 569 bets |
| S8880x0711…f03c | Yes | 181 | 28.8¢ | $44 | Proven+$9.11 per $100 · 9,042 bets |
| 0x7b64…8440 | Yes | 144 | 30.9¢ | $35 | Losing−$3.09 per $100 · 962 bets |
| Fennek0x4180…904b | Yes | 129 | 36.0¢ | $32 | New52 settled bets |
| 77kbCcPrd2uG8w0x8dde…5045 | Yes | 107 | 30.2¢ | $26 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 174 bets |
| InsiderRadar.io0x29fe…22cf | Yes | 104 | 36.1¢ | $26 | Losing−$4.53 per $100 · 114 bets |
| Zelenearn00xb04a…acfc | Yes | 82 | 27.0¢ | $20 | — |
| itsKey0x95c2…485b | Yes | 77 | 32.3¢ | $19 | — |
| sosala0xb195…0c62 | Yes | 71 | 33.9¢ | $17 | — |
| Spielermann0x0c93…aafa | Yes | 64 | 31.7¢ | $16 | Losing−$6.83 per $100 · 316 bets |
| 0x5449…992b | Yes | 56 | 29.3¢ | $14 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 6,692 bets |
| iuH1398SI0x44b7…2e99 | Yes | 55 | 28.0¢ | $14 | Losing−$4.93 per $100 · 738 bets |
| zstaxpl4fpb20x92c7…89f5 | Yes | 54 | 30.4¢ | $13 | — |
| frenchflair50x2ce9…5fc6 | Yes | 51 | 38.0¢ | $13 | New46 settled bets |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | Yes | 50 | 24.0¢ | $12 | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 3,292 bets |
| nizi150x4177…57df | Yes | 47 | 21.3¢ | $11 | Losing−$48.00 per $100 · 191 bets |
| algoking0x8dee…0a5f | Yes | 45 | 24.6¢ | $11 | — |
| yueyueyn0xb87f…f7d4 | Yes | 33 | 32.9¢ | $8 | — |
| 0xb4f6…eada | Yes | 31 | 29.1¢ | $8 | — |
| KentoUklad4ik0x43fe…d554 | Yes | 31 | 29.0¢ | $8 | New0 settled bets |
| whoeason0x1ff2…b29f | Yes | 30 | 21.0¢ | $7 | Losing−$9.90 per $100 · 100 bets |
| 0x0f18…5b28 | Yes | 20 | 30.0¢ | $5 | Break-even−$0.95 per $100 · 3,585 bets |
| TheMogger720x54fc…4330 | Yes | 19 | 21.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$2.40 per $100 · 709 bets |
| 0x3d03…9d52 | Yes | 19 | 27.9¢ | $5 | Break-even−$0.11 per $100 · 1,098 bets |
| KreoAnon0xe9ce…711f | Yes | 19 | 34.4¢ | $5 | — |
| captain-banana0xc291…976a | Yes | 16 | 37.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 5-testfollower-car0x3be5…f7fe | Yes | 15 | 30.5¢ | $4 | Break-even−$0.92 per $100 · 808 bets |
| 0xd29d…765c | Yes | 13 | 35.0¢ | $3 | — |
| DrShredz0x0f38…e56c | Yes | 4 | 24.1¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.40 per $100 · 617 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.