Market · 11 of 15 outcomes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 04:03 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KrackenSruster0xd44e…67e2 | No | 2,000 | 67.5¢ | $1.45K | Proven+$10.52 per $100 · 893 bets |
| 0xbfc3…4425 | No | 1,417 | 70.5¢ | $1.03K | — |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | No | 1,055 | 78.3¢ | $765 | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,264 bets |
| k7scooter0x3f39…3318 | No | 650 | 64.8¢ | $471 | — |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | Yes | 1,489 | 27.7¢ | $409 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| Trading4Fridge0x2525…b919 | Yes | 1,312 | 21.8¢ | $361 | — |
| Marty-Byrde0xe0a2…a349 | No | 484 | 66.4¢ | $351 | — |
| 8811120xd426…334a | Yes | 816 | 24.0¢ | $224 | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| vbtb50x8293…773b | Yes | 809 | 24.8¢ | $222 | — |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | Yes | 737 | 22.0¢ | $203 | Proven+$2.08 per $100 · 19,488 bets |
| Yank010xe76d…e5e3 | No | 198 | 73.1¢ | $143 | — |
| p0l780x66c6…24af | No | 154 | 64.8¢ | $112 | — |
| chumichu0x35a7…48de | No | 147 | 67.5¢ | $106 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 361 | 23.5¢ | $99 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 135 | 63.0¢ | $98 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,254 bets |
| serferer0xdc70…cc56 | No | 128 | 69.0¢ | $93 | — |
| 0xf956…896c | Yes | 261 | 26.9¢ | $72 | — |
| BigBoiBettin0x48ee…008c | Yes | 250 | 25.0¢ | $69 | Positive+$19.61 per $100 · 263 bets |
| Gluckyklucky0x97d3…3f3c | Yes | 233 | 24.7¢ | $64 | — |
| LlamaBanana0xe876…c671 | No | 80 | 62.7¢ | $58 | — |
| Intravertas0xba94…4e82 | No | 65 | 62.0¢ | $47 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 152 | 21.0¢ | $42 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| garbagefriends0xc5bd…ceaa | No | 50 | 79.6¢ | $36 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 1,711 bets |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No | 48 | 78.0¢ | $35 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 569 bets |
| V4grant0xf5bb…bdb8 | Yes | 119 | 21.0¢ | $33 | — |
| 0x4e84…ef69 | Yes | 112 | 26.6¢ | $31 | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 809 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 109 | 31.3¢ | $30 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| emmanuelgoldstein0x4d13…53aa | No | 41 | 74.0¢ | $29 | — |
| tzquantalpha0010x5923…49cd | No | 37 | 69.0¢ | $27 | — |
| rocky420050xd6a8…58fd | Yes | 92 | 22.7¢ | $25 | Break-even−$0.22 per $100 · 12,889 bets |
| 0xf9ea…7b04 | No | 33 | 66.1¢ | $24 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 31 | 69.0¢ | $22 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,920 bets |
| AlexZA30x5c5b…1a6d | No | 29 | 69.0¢ | $21 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 29 | 73.0¢ | $21 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 123,024+ bets · updating |
| omsode0x82bd…335e | Yes | 73 | 22.0¢ | $20 | — |
| 0xafa7…6e67 | No | 27 | 69.0¢ | $20 | — |
| 0xd11c…0d06 | No | 26 | 67.4¢ | $19 | — |
| 0xb6ce…895d | No | 23 | 79.7¢ | $17 | Positive+$1.74 per $100 · 1,065 bets |
| newnewuser0x1dd1…a156 | No | 21 | 62.9¢ | $15 | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 737 bets |
| predictdogepepewif0xf524…8178 | No | 20 | 73.0¢ | $15 | Losing−$5.59 per $100 · 11,425 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 20 | 75.0¢ | $14 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| Zasmes0x66be…1148 | No | 19 | 73.0¢ | $14 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 39 | 32.8¢ | $11 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| Abladollosac0x3e98…5389 | No | 15 | 73.9¢ | $11 | — |
| whaleP10x5b1d…8895 | No | 14 | 69.0¢ | $10 | — |
| whoeason0x1ff2…b29f | Yes | 37 | 25.0¢ | $10 | — |
| NellyDora0xca97…5409 | Yes | 35 | 38.0¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 1,328 bets |
| 0xfd02…fb6a | No | 13 | 63.0¢ | $9 | — |
| itsKey0x95c2…485b | Yes | 26 | 38.0¢ | $7 | — |
| Hugin-og-Munin0x8fe7…6c1f | No | 9 | 59.0¢ | $7 | Positive+$5.79 per $100 · 29,719+ bets · updating |
| smndmn0x200e…b074 | No | 8 | 66.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x7b64…8440 | No | 7 | 80.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x5449…992b | No | 6 | 79.7¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 6,692 bets |
| gonnakilmyslf0x5a7f…6413 | No | 5 | 77.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 77kbCcPrd2uG8w0x8dde…5045 | No | 5 | 80.0¢ | $4 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 174 bets |
| 5-testfollower-car0x3be5…f7fe | No | 5 | 76.0¢ | $4 | — |
| EliteBetter0x81c9…4a47 | No | 5 | 71.0¢ | $4 | — |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | No | 3 | 73.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| 0xe601…490b | Yes | 8 | 27.0¢ | $2 | — |
| monoclith0x24e8…4546 | No | 3 | 64.9¢ | $2 | — |
| cabbag0x2af1…d858 | No | 2 | 61.0¢ | $2 | — |
| betstaker0xd3fe…2b28 | No | 2 | 80.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$5.29 per $100 · 542 bets |
| zstaxpl4fpb20x92c7…89f5 | No | 2 | 80.8¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x81cb…7f28 | No | 2 | 62.3¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xb894…9cb7 | No | 2 | 63.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xe5ec…5c81 | Yes | 4 | 38.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x0c2c…dce3 | No | 1 | 74.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Agitator0xc4c6…63c1 | No | 1 | 75.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x5f4e…db92 | No | 1 | 77.0¢ | $1 | — |
| popik440xde26…be65 | Yes | 3 | 36.0¢ | $1 | — |
| G9vQK5Gcyx0xe90f…131e | Yes | 1 | 38.9¢ | $0 | — |
| Eli.copter0x22ef…b8a5 | No | 0 | 79.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 0 | 20.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,489 bets |
| ViscaElBarca0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | 0 | 25.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.