Market · 1 of 15 outcomes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 07:03 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tsybka0xd5cc…dea4 | Yes | 18,397 | 69.4¢ | $13.1K | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 943 bets |
| Voland67770xc23e…6499 | No | 9,761 | 30.0¢ | $2.83K | New18 settled bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | No | 8,423 | 28.8¢ | $2.44K | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,264 bets |
| 0x0456…c88a | Yes | 2,355 | 70.0¢ | $1.67K | Proven+$4.70 per $100 · 326 bets |
| trader-05ddbe2e0x05dd…305c | Yes | 2,078 | 72.0¢ | $1.48K | Break-even−$0.55 per $100 · 19,460 bets |
| ihorkoval0xbc48…47bb | No | 4,633 | 33.8¢ | $1.34K | — |
| newnewuser0x1dd1…a156 | Yes | 1,532 | 66.4¢ | $1.09K | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 737 bets |
| AMAM130x52eb…67ac | Yes | 1,464 | 70.0¢ | $1.04K | Losing−$5.46 per $100 · 31,074 bets |
| ClaudeIntern0x95b3…1df1 | Yes | 1,432 | 71.6¢ | $1.02K | Losing−$13.46 per $100 · 104 bets |
| Runner1090x6a67…df6f | Yes | 1,100 | 69.5¢ | $781 | Positive+$2.00 per $100 · 667 bets |
| KnightianUncertainty0x58e1…f652 | No | 2,037 | 29.5¢ | $591 | New45 settled bets |
| 0x36da…907b | Yes | 700 | 67.1¢ | $497 | Losing−$1.36 per $100 · 394 bets |
| KariSpice0x08ab…3af9 | Yes | 500 | 67.3¢ | $355 | Proven+$2.59 per $100 · 586 bets |
| 0x0524…1479 | Yes | 400 | 71.6¢ | $284 | Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 10,876 bets |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No | 735 | 30.0¢ | $213 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 569 bets |
| io30x607e…4011 | No | 672 | 29.8¢ | $195 | New41 settled bets |
| MrMarket0xf769…0114 | No | 628 | 32.0¢ | $182 | Break-even+$0.83 per $100 · 755 bets |
| doctorzhao0x5292…0a64 | No | 485 | 30.9¢ | $141 | New2 settled bets |
| Parz1vaI0xb100…6461 | Yes | 162 | 68.0¢ | $115 | Proven+$3.49 per $100 · 6,933 bets |
| NoCryingOverSpilledMilk0x3404…9660 | No | 345 | 29.0¢ | $100 | New63 settled bets |
| gesoos0x8f78…1141 | Yes | 140 | 71.0¢ | $99 | — |
| siriosleban10x0a31…5dd9 | Yes | 136 | 71.0¢ | $97 | New57 settled bets |
| 0x1ec7…12f7 | No | 323 | 31.0¢ | $94 | Losing−$4.05 per $100 · 456 bets |
| W1nner0xf21a…b6e3 | No | 320 | 31.3¢ | $93 | Losing−$3.23 per $100 · 265 bets |
| retosljk1340xecd0…4364 | No | 316 | 31.6¢ | $92 | — |
| 0xf9ea…7b04 | No | 261 | 31.5¢ | $76 | — |
| 0xf159…2a94 | No | 256 | 34.4¢ | $74 | — |
| InsolentBret0x0a87…3e26 | Yes | 101 | 71.6¢ | $72 | Positive+$1.67 per $100 · 373 bets |
| huguf0x1400…d220 | Yes | 100 | 71.0¢ | $71 | Losing−$8.29 per $100 · 158 bets |
| gtgtr0x5056…d9b5 | Yes | 100 | 69.0¢ | $71 | Break-even−$0.59 per $100 · 152 bets |
| sssoo0xba0c…d35b | Yes | 100 | 69.0¢ | $71 | — |
| HardZix0xf30a…3583 | Yes | 100 | 70.0¢ | $71 | — |
| S8880x0711…f03c | Yes | 100 | 68.4¢ | $71 | Proven+$9.13 per $100 · 9,031 bets |
| pein.rikudo0x2ef3…b420 | Yes | 100 | 68.9¢ | $71 | New67 settled bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 243 | 29.1¢ | $71 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,637 bets |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | No | 234 | 29.9¢ | $68 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| Spielermann0x0c93…aafa | No | 222 | 29.7¢ | $64 | Losing−$6.83 per $100 · 316 bets |
| sfggr0x3b68…c0df | Yes | 86 | 70.0¢ | $61 | Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 148 bets |
| 0xd53e…0b73 | No | 200 | 28.2¢ | $58 | — |
| rocky420050xd6a8…58fd | No | 198 | 28.0¢ | $57 | Break-even−$0.22 per $100 · 12,889 bets |
| ox9Ff03EC541f69848004ef36AFf186a4fbb4d8DAB0x9ff0…8dab | Yes | 72 | 70.0¢ | $51 | — |
| dgsgr0x21ce…7678 | Yes | 72 | 69.5¢ | $51 | Break-even−$0.85 per $100 · 118 bets |
| 0xb6ce…895d | No | 173 | 30.2¢ | $50 | Positive+$1.74 per $100 · 1,065 bets |
| DrNee0xba62…58e9 | No | 129 | 28.9¢ | $38 | Break-even−$0.64 per $100 · 331 bets |
| GeorgiiRach0x296a…fb2f | Yes | 53 | 69.4¢ | $38 | Break-even+$0.92 per $100 · 1,466 bets |
| jiffyjoker668880x162e…7cf3 | Yes | 50 | 72.0¢ | $36 | Losing−$2.00 per $100 · 548 bets |
| Raidloner0xf240…f825 | Yes | 42 | 71.0¢ | $30 | — |
| garbagefriends0xc5bd…ceaa | No | 97 | 28.0¢ | $28 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 1,711 bets |
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | No | 86 | 28.0¢ | $25 | Positive+$3.90 per $100 · 1,966 bets |
| letmecookit0x0c78…d53f | No | 80 | 31.4¢ | $23 | Break-even+$0.37 per $100 · 287 bets |
| KREOL0x7cfd…9227 | Yes | 32 | 73.0¢ | $23 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 29 | 69.0¢ | $21 | Losing−$2.70 per $100 · 123,093 bets |
| 0xc1e5…c5df | Yes | 29 | 70.0¢ | $20 | — |
| elixiroflife0xa663…5425 | Yes | 28 | 72.4¢ | $20 | — |
| 0x7b64…8440 | No | 67 | 30.9¢ | $19 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | 60 | 32.0¢ | $17 | Losing−$8.20 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| 0x5449…992b | No | 59 | 30.3¢ | $17 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 6,692 bets |
| Pegas19900x2a43…e214 | No | 59 | 34.0¢ | $17 | New0 settled bets |
| 0xddf1…c293 | Yes | 22 | 70.0¢ | $15 | — |
| kluwqkitxnrs0xc73b…a6c9 | No | 53 | 31.0¢ | $15 | — |
| Davidoff220xe8f4…e241 | No | 52 | 31.0¢ | $15 | — |
| 77kbCcPrd2uG8w0x8dde…5045 | No | 50 | 30.8¢ | $15 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 174 bets |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | No | 50 | 31.0¢ | $14 | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 3,292 bets |
| Alfayonaa0x312e…c604 | Yes | 20 | 68.0¢ | $14 | New83 settled bets |
| ferraracesare0x5aa0…c2d1 | Yes | 20 | 71.0¢ | $14 | New32 settled bets |
| trashtier0x7df6…ac3b | Yes | 20 | 69.0¢ | $14 | Positive+$1.38 per $100 · 6,486 bets |
| 0x8c94…2e06 | Yes | 20 | 70.0¢ | $14 | — |
| Alphax0xc781…59d7 | Yes | 20 | 69.0¢ | $14 | Losing−$2.00 per $100 · 1,638 bets |
| NellyDora0xca97…5409 | No | 49 | 28.0¢ | $14 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 1,328 bets |
| 0xbce8…abd4 | Yes | 14 | 70.8¢ | $10 | — |
| yueyueyn0xb87f…f7d4 | Yes | 14 | 68.6¢ | $10 | — |
| PredictionMMayr0x8f9d…5e06 | Yes | 14 | 72.0¢ | $10 | — |
| 0xa5ba…c545 | Yes | 13 | 70.0¢ | $9 | — |
| 0x0cda…afef | No | 32 | 31.0¢ | $9 | New96 settled bets |
| acarya0x5500…021b | No | 32 | 31.0¢ | $9 | New41 settled bets |
| heliumknown0x948c…dad1 | No | 32 | 31.0¢ | $9 | — |
| p0l780x66c6…24af | No | 31 | 32.0¢ | $9 | — |
| protarus0xb408…fcb1 | No | 30 | 30.0¢ | $9 | — |
| Heinrich18710x46f4…5352 | No | 29 | 34.0¢ | $9 | Losing−$4.94 per $100 · 422 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 27 | 30.5¢ | $8 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0x8cb1…aff5 | Yes | 11 | 70.7¢ | $8 | — |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | Yes | 10 | 70.0¢ | $7 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| zstaxpl4fpb20x92c7…89f5 | No | 24 | 31.0¢ | $7 | — |
| 4gacad6eklxi0xef9e…150c | Yes | 8 | 72.2¢ | $6 | — |
| bibus1230xc8d5…4c74 | Yes | 7 | 71.5¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x69e9…c86a | Yes | 7 | 70.3¢ | $5 | — |
| loferion0x8d3c…5728 | Yes | 7 | 70.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x8193…a2a1 | Yes | 7 | 70.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xf932…00a1 | Yes | 7 | 70.0¢ | $5 | — |
| tuskor0x2a5b…8e74 | No | 16 | 31.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$5.11 per $100 · 189 bets |
| Susycaria0x504f…6fac | No | 16 | 31.0¢ | $5 | New50 settled bets |
| cuprum0xecc7…b16d | No | 16 | 31.0¢ | $5 | — |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | No | 16 | 30.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$6.87 per $100 · 49,874+ bets · updating |
| KreoAnon0xe9ce…711f | No | 16 | 30.6¢ | $5 | — |
| Guber0xfe1f…e3a8 | No | 15 | 33.7¢ | $4 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 14 | 29.0¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,938 bets |
| NestorRomoG0xfd14…a270 | No | 14 | 31.0¢ | $4 | — |
| chenliwang0x6e8a…8343 | No | 14 | 31.0¢ | $4 | — |
| SomeBodyOnceToldMe0x6e5f…9d60 | Yes | 5 | 70.0¢ | $4 | — |
| kookies970x78d0…a337 | Yes | 5 | 70.4¢ | $4 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.