Market · 13 of 15 outcomes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 13:15 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
13 proven traders are on Yes, 11 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| God0xc701…920e | No | 20,782 | 58.2¢ | $17.2K | — |
| xoua0xda3f…c282 | No | 20,000 | 78.0¢ | $16.6K | — |
| op1umfan0x4c1a…8985 | No | 16,080 | 68.4¢ | $13.3K | New2 settled bets |
| Artets0x8bfe…c44d | No | 15,866 | 51.2¢ | $13.2K | — |
| WzapS0x32b4…7f09 | No | 10,534 | 69.7¢ | $8.74K | New12 settled bets |
| BigBusinessPro0x71b5…1231 | No | 9,515 | 64.0¢ | $7.9K | New1 settled bet |
| 0x88c8…8c31 | No | 6,897 | 69.0¢ | $5.72K | — |
| 0xbfc3…4425 | No | 6,520 | 76.7¢ | $5.41K | — |
| 0xb886…81b3 | Yes | 29,733 | 40.1¢ | $5.05K | Break-even+$0.69 per $100 · 1,518 bets |
| Dafri2202860x2908…91f5 | No | 5,917 | 85.5¢ | $4.91K | New22 settled bets |
| KrackenSruster0xd44e…67e2 | No | 5,795 | 55.0¢ | $4.81K | Proven+$10.52 per $100 · 893 bets |
| siick0xf9b7…60a4 | No | 5,268 | 77.3¢ | $4.37K | Proven+$3.60 per $100 · 1,967 bets |
| LPTT0xb5f2…f61a | No | 5,267 | 58.1¢ | $4.37K | — |
| 72030xa749…6a65 | No | 4,930 | 56.4¢ | $4.09K | — |
| adenakoz10xb615…73cf | No | 4,800 | 74.8¢ | $3.98K | Proven+$21.35 per $100 · 1,988 bets |
| 0xebc6…4608 | Yes | 22,436 | 45.0¢ | $3.81K | New92 settled bets |
| zxdfbdfgngcxv0x57b0…76f4 | No | 4,492 | 78.5¢ | $3.73K | Proven+$2.09 per $100 · 2,947 bets |
| BigBoiBettin0x48ee…008c | Yes | 21,099 | 38.3¢ | $3.59K | Positive+$19.61 per $100 · 263 bets |
| browne0xbf96…9942 | No | 4,306 | 86.9¢ | $3.57K | Proven+$2.85 per $100 · 304 bets |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e050xe234…304a | No | 4,127 | 76.7¢ | $3.43K | Positive+$1.66 per $100 · 636 bets |
| alexhist0x2d26…07f4 | No | 3,970 | 78.9¢ | $3.3K | New14 settled bets |
| Outsmarter0x1b60…a55b | No | 3,582 | 63.0¢ | $2.97K | Proven+$28.81 per $100 · 152 bets |
| 0x65483555411585564410x952a…bdc8 | No | 3,494 | 82.0¢ | $2.9K | — |
| dmitrybeinsp0x8740…c4c9 | No | 3,343 | 74.8¢ | $2.77K | — |
| Ditto3210x30c1…9f91 | No | 3,333 | 75.0¢ | $2.77K | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 632 bets |
| ddAnon0x07a6…2e31 | No | 3,289 | 79.7¢ | $2.73K | Break-even−$0.61 per $100 · 337 bets |
| smellyEllie0x38f5…6824 | Yes | 14,670 | 23.5¢ | $2.49K | Proven+$13.24 per $100 · 3,540 bets |
| Jango80x23ea…672b | No | 3,000 | 52.0¢ | $2.49K | Positive+$9.78 per $100 · 999 bets |
| kela.mov0x823b…b54f | No | 2,923 | 68.4¢ | $2.43K | New3 settled bets |
| MEPP0x6d9f…9790 | No | 2,876 | 74.0¢ | $2.39K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 1,289 bets |
| Lamantinka0xbb98…6d3c | No | 2,876 | 82.7¢ | $2.39K | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 2,636 | 64.3¢ | $2.19K | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| ferzamo0x866d…d337 | No | 2,564 | 78.0¢ | $2.13K | — |
| PashaAsOracul0x4fbf…f319 | No | 2,532 | 79.0¢ | $2.1K | New62 settled bets |
| tr10000x8a8b…375c | No | 2,395 | 83.9¢ | $1.99K | Losing−$2.06 per $100 · 6,303 bets |
| Gluckyklucky0x97d3…3f3c | No | 2,336 | 83.5¢ | $1.94K | — |
| vovatoxic0xf989…47cc | Yes | 11,037 | 45.3¢ | $1.88K | Proven+$31.56 per $100 · 158 bets |
| 8811120xd426…334a | Yes | 10,603 | 31.7¢ | $1.8K | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| mm4ker0x8c57…f939 | Yes | 10,353 | 49.8¢ | $1.76K | Proven+$4.56 per $100 · 367 bets |
| Warren-Buffett0x4478…02a4 | Yes | 10,043 | 25.6¢ | $1.71K | Proven+$3.05 per $100 · 1,767 bets |
| Sylvester.the.Cat0x0f2b…665a | No | 2,000 | 87.0¢ | $1.66K | Proven+$7.28 per $100 · 118 bets |
| radioigor0x15b2…6f4a | No | 2,000 | 65.0¢ | $1.66K | New24 settled bets |
| Giorgio20x9cb9…7b80 | No | 2,000 | 84.5¢ | $1.66K | Proven+$3.61 per $100 · 1,037 bets |
| Smart-bettor70x7845…417b | No | 1,993 | 78.5¢ | $1.65K | Losing−$1.64 per $100 · 525 bets |
| 0xcd1d…6542 | No | 1,818 | 55.0¢ | $1.51K | — |
| VladimirPooper0xa53e…218d | Yes | 8,763 | 24.5¢ | $1.49K | — |
| newnewuser0x1dd1…a156 | No | 1,763 | 81.6¢ | $1.46K | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 737 bets |
| Valen90x162f…798d | Yes | 8,398 | 33.4¢ | $1.43K | Proven+$2.48 per $100 · 882 bets |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | No | 1,556 | 54.9¢ | $1.29K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,103 bets |
| Crabinn0x725b…f2e9 | Yes | 7,452 | 47.4¢ | $1.27K | New35 settled bets |
| AiBird0xa58d…b9b8 | Yes | 7,332 | 17.5¢ | $1.25K | Positive+$3.43 per $100 · 14,399 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 1,500 | 79.1¢ | $1.25K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,694 bets |
| GaioMario0x94d0…9e65 | No | 1,498 | 53.9¢ | $1.24K | — |
| StoneMarble0xbef5…1c5a | Yes | 7,000 | 46.0¢ | $1.19K | New45 settled bets |
| Trumpchi0xf7b3…eeb2 | No | 1,416 | 74.9¢ | $1.18K | Break-even+$0.93 per $100 · 472 bets |
| 0xf9ea…7b04 | No | 1,406 | 55.7¢ | $1.17K | — |
| Dondigidin0x07b9…0fbb | No | 1,400 | 72.0¢ | $1.16K | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 991 bets |
| gambler130x7319…0299 | Yes | 6,785 | 16.3¢ | $1.15K | Break-even−$0.04 per $100 · 373 bets |
| surf0xfd2b…8e50 | Yes | 6,718 | 24.5¢ | $1.14K | Break-even+$0.35 per $100 · 972 bets |
| 0xff93…51d6 | No | 1,356 | 62.7¢ | $1.13K | — |
| aarco0x7107…2ad4 | No | 1,339 | 74.7¢ | $1.11K | New9 settled bets |
| WaterlooV0xced4…3dc4 | No | 1,332 | 86.3¢ | $1.11K | — |
| kinkkukaarlo0x4c8a…3d45 | No | 1,300 | 82.0¢ | $1.08K | New74 settled bets |
| beraguess0xea79…e4b5 | No | 1,300 | 62.8¢ | $1.08K | Losing−$3.35 per $100 · 202 bets |
| DrNee0xba62…58e9 | No | 1,295 | 77.2¢ | $1.07K | Break-even−$0.64 per $100 · 331 bets |
| AAVVAA0xb2c4…43e8 | Yes | 5,207 | 39.1¢ | $885 | — |
| intwit0xdbb4…afe9 | Yes | 5,080 | 42.6¢ | $864 | — |
| Geminae.Columbae0x61ea…bbf7 | Yes | 4,400 | 24.0¢ | $748 | New98 settled bets |
| Metusalem0xa65c…32fb | Yes | 3,950 | 37.1¢ | $672 | — |
| gesst0xadaf…f9f2 | Yes | 3,329 | 19.4¢ | $566 | Proven+$17.17 per $100 · 568 bets |
| Tommy910xcc00…0115 | Yes | 2,934 | 35.7¢ | $499 | — |
| rfhbtdhtf0xaad4…d249 | Yes | 2,900 | 39.0¢ | $493 | — |
| uyfguh0xae02…4a2a | Yes | 2,900 | 36.0¢ | $493 | New10 settled bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 2,740 | 32.8¢ | $466 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,713 bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | Yes | 2,491 | 25.9¢ | $423 | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,060 bets |
| BBTAN0x5f56…a330 | Yes | 2,133 | 43.2¢ | $363 | New76 settled bets |
| hku20900xa494…5e1d | Yes | 2,034 | 39.3¢ | $346 | — |
| rip0x5950…8c48 | Yes | 2,000 | 28.3¢ | $340 | Proven+$2.14 per $100 · 647 bets |
| OxF6C33EaE7cbC1dB8f9c6F10f0a3C54E5dC7aF1b80xe9cd…701f | Yes | 1,794 | 43.0¢ | $305 | — |
| 0xf913…969b | Yes | 1,784 | 48.0¢ | $303 | — |
| 0xd0f8…6b50 | Yes | 1,782 | 37.9¢ | $303 | Proven+$11.40 per $100 · 266 bets |
| Hazya0xe795…6068 | Yes | 1,718 | 23.3¢ | $292 | — |
| 0x3eb7…a89e | Yes | 1,633 | 49.0¢ | $278 | New3 settled bets |
| Kar-9600x3331…eb45 | Yes | 1,429 | 21.0¢ | $243 | New6 settled bets |
| 0xf3e9…ec41 | Yes | 1,304 | 23.1¢ | $222 | New33 settled bets |
| SaturnStormCube0xad52…11ac | Yes | 1,288 | 14.4¢ | $219 | Proven+$5.83 per $100 · 3,598 bets |
| 0xa2c6…757b | Yes | 1,260 | 47.4¢ | $214 | — |
| Denis990xc6a2…d076 | Yes | 1,210 | 44.5¢ | $206 | New72 settled bets |
| Copezilla0x9f08…73a8 | Yes | 1,152 | 46.8¢ | $196 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 1,116 bets |
| zojmma0xc3be…0e17 | Yes | 1,136 | 26.4¢ | $193 | — |
| narikela0x0380…4d8a | Yes | 1,132 | 22.0¢ | $192 | New31 settled bets |
| 0x789e…1efe | Yes | 1,094 | 13.5¢ | $186 | New15 settled bets |
| toshua0x56c2…17bf | Yes | 1,036 | 23.4¢ | $176 | Positive+$1.22 per $100 · 1,304 bets |
| Mo4O110xac88…33f6 | Yes | 1,000 | 22.0¢ | $170 | — |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699 | Yes | 1,000 | 44.8¢ | $170 | Proven+$9.79 per $100 · 1,188 bets |
| LePaix0xae69…65c9 | Yes | 1,000 | 25.0¢ | $170 | — |
| OneIsAll.0xa557…5e8a | Yes | 1,000 | 46.0¢ | $170 | — |
| yuansir0x7a09…8cdb | Yes | 1,000 | 23.0¢ | $170 | Break-even+$0.33 per $100 · 182 bets |
| bosshog0x47ab…95df | Yes | 1,000 | 23.0¢ | $170 | Positive+$1.02 per $100 · 1,839 bets |
| olegan0xde50…d25f | Yes | 1,000 | 45.0¢ | $170 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.