Market · 5 of 15 outcomes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 23:35 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gesst0xadaf…f9f2 | Yes | 126 | 60.0¢ | $73 | Proven+$17.17 per $100 · 566 bets |
| dexter.chow0xf72e…8b51 | Yes | 100 | 62.0¢ | $58 | — |
| newnewuser0x1dd1…a156 | Yes | 94 | 58.0¢ | $55 | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 737 bets |
| 0xf9ea…7b04 | No | 118 | 42.4¢ | $49 | — |
| p0l780x66c6…24af | No | 116 | 43.0¢ | $49 | — |
| 0x8c94…2e06 | Yes | 83 | 58.2¢ | $48 | — |
| omsode0x82bd…335e | No | 60 | 42.0¢ | $25 | — |
| NothingEverHappens120x407d…efcd | Yes | 43 | 58.0¢ | $25 | — |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | No | 50 | 42.0¢ | $21 | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 3,292 bets |
| Milin-dc0x2762…2cf6 | Yes | 20 | 58.0¢ | $12 | — |
| VolodymyrMudryk0x18fa…9cf4 | No | 24 | 41.0¢ | $10 | — |
| Voland67770xc23e…6499 | No | 22 | 41.0¢ | $9 | New18 settled bets |
| Heinrich18710x46f4…5352 | No | 21 | 48.0¢ | $9 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 20 | 43.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| KenanEvren0xb8d6…44ee | No | 20 | 42.0¢ | $8 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 13 | 41.0¢ | $5 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,453 bets |
| winexecutescale0xfe93…8d0e | Yes | 9 | 63.0¢ | $5 | — |
| tacor0x033b…5fd4 | No | 10 | 43.0¢ | $4 | — |
| Agitator0xc4c6…63c1 | No | 5 | 43.0¢ | $2 | — |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | Yes | 2 | 56.0¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| 0x2b73…174e | Yes | 1 | 59.0¢ | $0 | — |
| just-bettor0xa742…9856 | Yes | 1 | 55.0¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 57.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| badatthis0x75ac…33d7 | No | 0 | 39.0¢ | $0 | Proven+$6.73 per $100 · 6,671 bets |
| hithitfar0xe53c…e569 | No | 0 | 41.0¢ | $0 | Proven+$7.52 per $100 · 3,961 bets |
| Zasmes0x66be…1148 | No | 0 | 43.8¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.