Market · 3 of 4 outcomes
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 04:12 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
9 proven traders are on Yes, 13 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RewardsMafia0x3eed…cb2a | No | 16,479 | 69.8¢ | $13.1K | Losing−$7.88 per $100 · 238 bets |
| gambler130x7319…0299 | Yes | 50,391 | 29.9¢ | $10.3K | Break-even−$0.04 per $100 · 373 bets |
| 0x5b07…de95 | No | 12,827 | 70.3¢ | $10.2K | — |
| 0x1156…5eb4 | No | 3,601 | 64.0¢ | $2.86K | — |
| nukecoin-0xa6e6…d5b8 | No | 2,588 | 79.3¢ | $2.06K | — |
| 0x9053…0901 | No | 2,048 | 80.1¢ | $1.63K | — |
| controls0x165e…f5aa | No | 1,848 | 54.4¢ | $1.47K | Proven+$9.06 per $100 · 895 bets |
| nero25890x1464…5e75 | No | 1,552 | 64.0¢ | $1.23K | Losing−$3.02 per $100 · 2,380 bets |
| JoeBlack010x9ca1…13b5 | No | 1,500 | 50.0¢ | $1.19K | Proven+$2.66 per $100 · 1,116 bets |
| TralaleloTralalala0x5d91…3578 | No | 1,389 | 55.4¢ | $1.1K | Proven+$16.25 per $100 · 885 bets |
| tr10000x8a8b…375c | No | 1,266 | 70.3¢ | $1.01K | Losing−$2.06 per $100 · 6,303 bets |
| Mac-Gyver0x524d…4495 | Yes | 4,676 | 45.6¢ | $959 | Proven+$12.04 per $100 · 581 bets |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | No | 1,150 | 75.2¢ | $915 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| browne0xbf96…9942 | No | 1,110 | 72.3¢ | $883 | Proven+$2.85 per $100 · 304 bets |
| mamai0xabbe…8f37 | No | 1,000 | 70.0¢ | $795 | Losing−$7.39 per $100 · 667 bets |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | No | 1,000 | 66.3¢ | $795 | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
| adenakoz10xb615…73cf | No | 1,000 | 55.0¢ | $795 | Proven+$21.35 per $100 · 1,988 bets |
| eastpak0x06ac…79ec | No | 989 | 78.0¢ | $786 | Break-even−$0.73 per $100 · 298 bets |
| Legacy.crypto0x9dfb…e887 | No | 974 | 67.8¢ | $774 | — |
| mehanizator0xaaf7…2e27 | Yes | 3,176 | 40.5¢ | $651 | Positive+$3.84 per $100 · 8,686 bets |
| RogerFed0xe958…66b7 | No | 760 | 76.3¢ | $604 | — |
| Maru.lucky.nala.lenu0x392a…262d | No | 753 | 52.1¢ | $598 | Losing−$1.59 per $100 · 306 bets |
| 1014560x8de0…7f22 | No | 686 | 54.0¢ | $545 | Proven+$14.71 per $100 · 249 bets |
| 0xbfc3…4425 | No | 629 | 79.5¢ | $500 | — |
| Pulsar14.80x4457…2dcc | No | 620 | 72.6¢ | $493 | — |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e050xe234…304a | Yes | 2,396 | 31.0¢ | $491 | Positive+$1.66 per $100 · 636 bets |
| 0x3b6e…1889 | No | 601 | 55.7¢ | $478 | — |
| Gluckyklucky0x97d3…3f3c | No | 565 | 76.8¢ | $449 | — |
| AChad0x98d1…ed25 | No | 537 | 55.6¢ | $427 | — |
| Outsmarter0x1b60…a55b | Yes | 2,041 | 45.6¢ | $418 | Proven+$28.81 per $100 · 152 bets |
| grohman0x297c…df58 | No | 501 | 79.9¢ | $398 | — |
| whig0x40cf…d21d | No | 500 | 73.0¢ | $398 | Proven+$11.46 per $100 · 1,102 bets |
| trx10xc6a2…c9b7 | No | 500 | 77.0¢ | $398 | Proven+$5.61 per $100 · 172 bets |
| CHIKI330xff52…4546 | No | 500 | 50.0¢ | $398 | — |
| crossor0xb393…1867 | No | 460 | 86.9¢ | $366 | — |
| FoolingAround0x0f4f…7039 | No | 450 | 61.6¢ | $358 | — |
| Madsolbro0x0e09…05bb | Yes | 1,739 | 46.0¢ | $356 | Losing−$5.70 per $100 · 124 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 438 | 78.7¢ | $348 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,223 bets |
| Porx0xa0bc…d428 | Yes | 1,657 | 20.2¢ | $340 | Proven+$7.58 per $100 · 3,059 bets |
| Mahnic0xdf34…dc86 | No | 412 | 69.5¢ | $328 | — |
| FishermansFiend0x3a59…6c6f | No | 401 | 71.0¢ | $319 | Positive+$2.04 per $100 · 177 bets |
| Jet90x8705…8354 | No | 400 | 62.7¢ | $318 | Proven+$8.39 per $100 · 490 bets |
| STONKS2280x350e…ed02 | No | 400 | 58.5¢ | $318 | Positive+$6.41 per $100 · 137 bets |
| Dondigidin0x07b9…0fbb | No | 400 | 64.7¢ | $318 | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 991 bets |
| quantr0x8cd2…0d59 | No | 396 | 73.5¢ | $315 | — |
| Vipine0xb82b…730e | No | 395 | 75.9¢ | $314 | — |
| jebiga0010xb2ed…0584 | No | 361 | 73.7¢ | $287 | — |
| HippoMaro0xf81a…eba3 | No | 359 | 54.6¢ | $285 | — |
| chilli0080x06a5…e1fb | No | 339 | 59.0¢ | $269 | — |
| crayven0x2aac…dfad | No | 330 | 63.6¢ | $262 | Proven+$5.71 per $100 · 922 bets |
| Delarge0xabd8…141d | No | 330 | 52.4¢ | $262 | — |
| brokemane0x47dc…c27e | No | 328 | 61.0¢ | $261 | Positive+$1.58 per $100 · 175 bets |
| Coldonn1010xe6fd…8bc3 | No | 326 | 58.0¢ | $259 | — |
| 0xdcfe…b7d3 | No | 324 | 75.0¢ | $257 | — |
| JMSHZMBR9881150x22a9…97ba | No | 300 | 66.6¢ | $239 | — |
| DumplingBMF0x8f69…7df1 | No | 292 | 65.0¢ | $232 | Proven+$2.52 per $100 · 3,946 bets |
| nickadamus0xca37…a2ae | No | 271 | 73.9¢ | $215 | — |
| Loyrens0x2326…ef44 | Yes | 995 | 57.4¢ | $204 | — |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | Yes | 895 | 30.2¢ | $184 | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,398 bets |
| 00000000000000x90xe63a…0679 | Yes | 800 | 29.6¢ | $164 | — |
| eCash0x62cf…5826 | Yes | 774 | 35.8¢ | $159 | Proven+$6.07 per $100 · 625 bets |
| 0x393d…6b95 | Yes | 638 | 47.0¢ | $131 | Losing−$11.95 per $100 · 1,435 bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | Yes | 589 | 26.4¢ | $121 | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,284 bets |
| 0x7272…a67d | Yes | 500 | 39.0¢ | $102 | New73 settled bets |
| 0x39aa…583c | Yes | 394 | 34.3¢ | $81 | Break-even+$0.69 per $100 · 22,697 bets |
| rocky420060x85d5…bbf0 | Yes | 300 | 40.5¢ | $61 | — |
| Volodymyr-Zelensky0x306f…aa99 | Yes | 290 | 32.5¢ | $59 | Proven+$18.90 per $100 · 214 bets |
| kanhaoleaha0xd98a…4db0 | Yes | 286 | 46.0¢ | $59 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 268 | 14.0¢ | $55 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,318 bets |
| purplegatto0x032e…2a9e | Yes | 250 | 44.8¢ | $51 | Losing−$7.02 per $100 · 15,975 bets |
| BikesAreTheBikes0x215a…254c | Yes | 244 | 13.8¢ | $50 | Positive+$6.62 per $100 · 6,737 bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | Yes | 227 | 47.2¢ | $47 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| tinman20x9bae…5d34 | Yes | 200 | 46.2¢ | $41 | — |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | No | 50 | 70.9¢ | $40 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| 0xe873…cb60 | Yes | 190 | 43.8¢ | $39 | — |
| Zelenearn00xb04a…acfc | Yes | 166 | 14.0¢ | $34 | — |
| S8880x0711…f03c | Yes | 136 | 38.8¢ | $28 | Proven+$9.11 per $100 · 9,042 bets |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | Yes | 127 | 19.2¢ | $26 | Losing−$8.71 per $100 · 69,942+ bets · updating |
| cr70xa28e…b220 | Yes | 125 | 30.0¢ | $26 | — |
| pykue0xa45f…d6cb | Yes | 101 | 43.0¢ | $21 | — |
| liuxb19980x4514…b502 | Yes | 100 | 36.0¢ | $21 | New55 settled bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 70 | 20.0¢ | $14 | Losing−$2.51 per $100 · 124,642 bets |
| NellyDora0xca97…5409 | Yes | 67 | 20.2¢ | $14 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 1,328 bets |
| TruthSignalFramework0x7e64…c43e | Yes | 58 | 26.0¢ | $12 | — |
| garbagefriends0xc5bd…ceaa | Yes | 55 | 30.4¢ | $11 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 1,711 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 52 | 31.5¢ | $11 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 50 | 43.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | Yes | 50 | 24.0¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.33 per $100 · 3,303 bets |
| Bvx0xac2f…b8af | Yes | 50 | 46.0¢ | $10 | — |
| TRUTH0x1409…ee77 | Yes | 40 | 17.2¢ | $8 | — |
| BigBoiBettin0x48ee…008c | Yes | 40 | 37.0¢ | $8 | Positive+$19.61 per $100 · 263 bets |
| 0x5449…992b | Yes | 40 | 35.8¢ | $8 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 6,720 bets |
| Mr.Alexx0x1a1f…cfdc | Yes | 38 | 45.7¢ | $8 | — |
| 46318743680xdfb0…d1dd | Yes | 36 | 28.0¢ | $7 | — |
| Peaven0x4b48…35d0 | Yes | 35 | 27.3¢ | $7 | Proven+$10.60 per $100 · 592 bets |
| 0xb4f6…eada | Yes | 28 | 31.1¢ | $6 | — |
| ccyy20260x4282…3455 | Yes | 27 | 25.2¢ | $6 | Losing−$1.85 per $100 · 1,702 bets |
| maxiimuss0x8bc5…5b4c | Yes | 26 | 39.0¢ | $5 | — |
| HealingRightfully0x7e29…e05d | Yes | 26 | 20.0¢ | $5 | — |
| walkwithyourboy0xbc1f…8f78 | Yes | 2 | 48.6¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.