Market · 4 of 4 outcomes
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 20:53 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 6 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| browne0xbf96…9942 | No | 8,306 | 90.8¢ | $8.18K | Proven+$2.85 per $100 · 304 bets |
| OraculumNobius0xd25b…9f3d | No | 5,000 | 98.7¢ | $4.92K | Break-even+$0.04 per $100 · 26,357 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 4,233 | 81.3¢ | $4.17K | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,393 bets |
| 0x5b07…de95 | No | 2,860 | 83.1¢ | $2.82K | — |
| nukecoin-0xa6e6…d5b8 | No | 2,811 | 82.5¢ | $2.77K | — |
| tr10000x8a8b…375c | No | 2,808 | 86.0¢ | $2.76K | Losing−$2.06 per $100 · 6,303 bets |
| byteA0x9765…436b | No | 1,880 | 89.4¢ | $1.85K | — |
| nero25890x1464…5e75 | No | 1,717 | 76.0¢ | $1.69K | Losing−$3.02 per $100 · 2,380 bets |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No | 1,348 | 98.3¢ | $1.33K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,971 bets |
| GOLADS960x894d…04e2 | No | 1,200 | 86.7¢ | $1.18K | New56 settled bets |
| Everestpredictions0xceca…3f67 | No | 1,060 | 94.4¢ | $1.04K | Break-even−$0.24 per $100 · 817 bets |
| mewmew10xe95e…61f2 | No | 952 | 88.8¢ | $937 | Losing−$1.03 per $100 · 1,290 bets |
| Legacy.crypto0x9dfb…e887 | No | 889 | 80.7¢ | $876 | — |
| quantr0x8cd2…0d59 | No | 734 | 75.9¢ | $723 | — |
| SickandTired0x290d…dc40 | No | 548 | 73.2¢ | $539 | Break-even−$0.40 per $100 · 1,218 bets |
| StarMaster0xeca0…e8f8 | No | 500 | 87.6¢ | $492 | Proven+$2.31 per $100 · 4,789 bets |
| crayven0x2aac…dfad | No | 453 | 72.9¢ | $445 | Proven+$5.71 per $100 · 922 bets |
| gambler130x7319…0299 | Yes | 26,809 | 22.3¢ | $416 | Break-even−$0.04 per $100 · 373 bets |
| Skaliz0x4ba4…8a89 | No | 334 | 94.0¢ | $329 | Positive+$1.34 per $100 · 1,501 bets |
| 0x9a35…4d50 | No | 256 | 81.3¢ | $252 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 245 | 87.0¢ | $242 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,067 bets |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | No | 240 | 84.1¢ | $236 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| JMSHZMBR9881150x22a9…97ba | No | 238 | 84.0¢ | $234 | — |
| 2KTrade0xbde4…6109 | No | 224 | 77.3¢ | $221 | New76 settled bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 221 | 73.6¢ | $218 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| STONKS2280x350e…ed02 | No | 200 | 72.0¢ | $197 | Positive+$6.41 per $100 · 137 bets |
| ragutwo0x7db8…ed19 | No | 200 | 81.0¢ | $197 | Proven+$8.47 per $100 · 976 bets |
| ofcourseistillloveyou20190xcea0…3d06 | No | 200 | 94.0¢ | $197 | Break-even+$0.13 per $100 · 1,507 bets |
| Fermatter0x0d09…dd55 | No | 195 | 79.2¢ | $192 | Positive+$1.35 per $100 · 2,822 bets |
| Catslovemeow0x8792…a02c | No | 190 | 82.6¢ | $187 | — |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | No | 179 | 78.2¢ | $176 | Losing−$7.63 per $100 · 410,765 bets |
| mceee0xa3a9…6c89 | No | 170 | 91.2¢ | $167 | — |
| controls0x165e…f5aa | No | 159 | 76.0¢ | $157 | — |
| QuarterlyComeback0x5a22…17a6 | No | 143 | 70.0¢ | $141 | Proven+$7.94 per $100 · 469 bets |
| p0l780x66c6…24af | No | 136 | 76.6¢ | $134 | New6 settled bets |
| annakukus0xecaf…457e | No | 132 | 95.0¢ | $130 | — |
| ProphecyKing0x8eff…fb57 | No | 123 | 81.0¢ | $122 | — |
| tihonkomarov0x2cd7…2f4b | No | 122 | 94.0¢ | $120 | New71 settled bets |
| Delarge0xabd8…141d | No | 117 | 78.0¢ | $115 | — |
| heniyrynku0xbd33…be35 | No | 114 | 83.0¢ | $112 | — |
| gotonetry330x66e0…e8f0 | No | 108 | 73.6¢ | $106 | Losing−$1.35 per $100 · 729 bets |
| abidal0xa11b…63d5 | No | 108 | 93.0¢ | $106 | — |
| 0x0524…1479 | No | 105 | 91.5¢ | $103 | Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 10,876 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 104 | 90.8¢ | $103 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,956 bets |
| aandriy0x5de8…f004 | No | 102 | 82.0¢ | $100 | — |
| Gluckyklucky0x97d3…3f3c | No | 100 | 96.8¢ | $98 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 96 | 81.7¢ | $95 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| h.h0x3b6e…70fa | No | 95 | 69.0¢ | $93 | — |
| ociueth0xc8b1…8f95 | No | 83 | 78.0¢ | $82 | — |
| geomaf0x86b8…a9ec | No | 76 | 73.0¢ | $75 | — |
| Blueynbingo0x52aa…42a2 | No | 73 | 74.9¢ | $72 | — |
| eCash0x62cf…5826 | Yes | 1,998 | 31.0¢ | $31 | Proven+$6.07 per $100 · 625 bets |
| 00000000000000x90xe63a…0679 | Yes | 1,921 | 8.6¢ | $30 | — |
| Perypery0x0a7a…df1b | Yes | 1,874 | 1.9¢ | $29 | Positive+$11.86 per $100 · 5,341 bets |
| GenaTheBondKilIer0xd632…8afb | Yes | 1,813 | 2.3¢ | $28 | — |
| 0xee67…67a6 | Yes | 1,309 | 1.1¢ | $20 | Positive+$13.28 per $100 · 8,633 bets |
| Volodymyr-Zelensky0x306f…aa99 | Yes | 1,061 | 2.1¢ | $16 | — |
| iadme0x0770…184b | Yes | 927 | 25.6¢ | $14 | Break-even+$0.76 per $100 · 2,502 bets |
| mehanizator0xaaf7…2e27 | Yes | 917 | 13.8¢ | $14 | Positive+$3.84 per $100 · 8,686 bets |
| badatthis0x75ac…33d7 | Yes | 774 | 2.2¢ | $12 | Proven+$6.72 per $100 · 6,681 bets |
| ForcaoDaRaia0x919e…d915 | Yes | 650 | 26.8¢ | $10 | — |
| 8dcc906a9b0xdbd0…8c1c | Yes | 600 | 22.6¢ | $9 | Losing−$19.90 per $100 · 244 bets |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 566 | 3.9¢ | $9 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 350 | 2.7¢ | $5 | Losing−$2.54 per $100 · 124,233+ bets · updating |
| Nobi-Nobita0x24fe…3419 | Yes | 309 | 2.3¢ | $5 | — |
| rocky420060x85d5…bbf0 | Yes | 300 | 26.0¢ | $5 | — |
| Leclerc040x38cf…d885 | Yes | 238 | 21.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$4.36 per $100 · 1,449 bets |
| 73f44919CE0143F0e9a05F531f7C8B15c8a483a0.0x73f4…83a0 | Yes | 160 | 1.9¢ | $2 | — |
| Get100x904f…50c6 | Yes | 137 | 36.6¢ | $2 | — |
| BC0010x9481…4931 | Yes | 130 | 31.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xe3ae…217a | Yes | 119 | 18.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | Yes | 116 | 27.9¢ | $2 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 19,896 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 100 | 42.3¢ | $2 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 127,944 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 58 | 38.5¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,341 bets |
| 0x7a1f…9f05 | Yes | 55 | 2.2¢ | $1 | Losing−$29.41 per $100 · 123 bets |
| ihor-ihor0xaed4…7f61 | Yes | 50 | 2.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Nerok0x9439…bc47 | Yes | 50 | 50.4¢ | $1 | — |
| Csjam0x406c…1f68 | Yes | 49 | 2.1¢ | $1 | — |
| zzzabava0xec80…9b1f | Yes | 37 | 27.0¢ | $1 | — |
| faihjn0x61ed…cc4c | Yes | 36 | 17.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Amirante0x7acb…93fe | Yes | 36 | 28.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xd054…9e28 | Yes | 33 | 28.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x19e5…d7cd | Yes | 30 | 31.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$5.87 per $100 · 217 bets |
| manochartino0xc20e…0a5e | Yes | 28 | 1.8¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.48 per $100 · 1,228 bets |
| 0x9afc…314b | Yes | 27 | 2.8¢ | $0 | — |
| liullll0x64f4…18fc | Yes | 25 | 4.0¢ | $0 | — |
| jksdnf0xb6bf…c1c1 | Yes | 20 | 1.8¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 474 bets |
| charay120x9a51…bf4c | Yes | 17 | 28.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Buzz12z0xac94…e414 | Yes | 16 | 31.0¢ | $0 | — |
| artand0xd3cd…1d27 | Yes | 11 | 9.0¢ | $0 | — |
| htfhrsty0xfc59…30c5 | Yes | 11 | 23.0¢ | $0 | — |
| adsfasdf1130x0dba…2db9 | Yes | 10 | 18.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.12 per $100 · 7,608 bets |
| asdfdd1230x2232…a2c5 | Yes | 10 | 31.0¢ | $0 | — |
| asdfasdfasdf340x48c5…10fc | Yes | 10 | 36.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.17 per $100 · 10,798 bets |
| asdfdd9180x5d3d…8105 | Yes | 10 | 33.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.12 per $100 · 11,893 bets |
| asdfll10x601f…bb82 | Yes | 10 | 22.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 7,353 bets |
| asdfasdf111120xaf53…ca3b | Yes | 10 | 31.0¢ | $0 | — |
| dddab110xced1…d7cd | Yes | 10 | 35.0¢ | $0 | — |
| asdfasdddd44120xe9cd…be3f | Yes | 10 | 31.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.