Market · 2 of 4 outcomes
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 22:32 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
6 proven traders are on Yes, 7 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xf27d…e6d3 | No | 2,120 | 48.9¢ | $1.39K | Positive+$7.37 per $100 · 1,338 bets |
| A1VENGO0xc0df…9cf1 | No | 1,892 | 42.0¢ | $1.24K | — |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | No | 1,889 | 45.9¢ | $1.24K | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| Outsmarter0x1b60…a55b | Yes | 2,916 | 68.6¢ | $1.01K | Proven+$28.81 per $100 · 152 bets |
| nero25890x1464…5e75 | No | 1,470 | 47.6¢ | $963 | Losing−$3.02 per $100 · 2,380 bets |
| JoeBlack010x9ca1…13b5 | No | 1,400 | 38.0¢ | $917 | Proven+$2.66 per $100 · 1,116 bets |
| Madsolbro0x0e09…05bb | Yes | 2,417 | 66.2¢ | $834 | Losing−$5.70 per $100 · 124 bets |
| controls0x165e…f5aa | No | 1,193 | 39.1¢ | $782 | — |
| gambler130x7319…0299 | Yes | 2,067 | 53.7¢ | $713 | Break-even−$0.04 per $100 · 373 bets |
| Mkfarley0x42c3…6269 | No | 1,022 | 52.5¢ | $669 | — |
| adenakoz10xb615…73cf | No | 1,000 | 36.0¢ | $655 | Proven+$21.35 per $100 · 1,988 bets |
| 0x54a5…ee3d | Yes | 1,718 | 58.0¢ | $593 | New96 settled bets |
| eCash0x62cf…5826 | Yes | 1,650 | 56.6¢ | $569 | Proven+$6.07 per $100 · 625 bets |
| 0x91c3…409f | Yes | 1,531 | 63.9¢ | $528 | New0 settled bets |
| 0xcrag0x0bd8…a74a | Yes | 1,450 | 60.3¢ | $500 | — |
| mehanizator0xaaf7…2e27 | Yes | 1,384 | 57.2¢ | $477 | Positive+$3.84 per $100 · 8,686 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 661 | 27.1¢ | $433 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 127,993 bets |
| FishermansFiend0x3a59…6c6f | No | 655 | 53.1¢ | $429 | Positive+$2.04 per $100 · 177 bets |
| fakwar0xb94a…a623 | No | 640 | 63.4¢ | $419 | — |
| Coldonn1010xe6fd…8bc3 | No | 556 | 41.0¢ | $364 | — |
| QuarterlyComeback0x5a22…17a6 | No | 554 | 45.2¢ | $363 | Proven+$7.94 per $100 · 469 bets |
| bnetopt0xf18f…294c | Yes | 1,000 | 50.7¢ | $345 | Losing−$21.26 per $100 · 431 bets |
| willsom0xaa99…dbbf | Yes | 1,000 | 47.0¢ | $345 | Proven+$7.45 per $100 · 782 bets |
| tr10000x8a8b…375c | No | 420 | 65.0¢ | $275 | Losing−$2.06 per $100 · 6,303 bets |
| RogerFed0xe958…66b7 | No | 400 | 37.1¢ | $262 | — |
| edge9990xab44…c994 | No | 340 | 31.5¢ | $223 | — |
| Polocap0xac42…60d1 | No | 340 | 60.1¢ | $223 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 327 | 27.1¢ | $214 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,067 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 587 | 47.4¢ | $202 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,166 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 293 | 33.2¢ | $192 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,306 bets |
| FirstAMan0xf23e…d7f0 | No | 289 | 38.1¢ | $189 | — |
| matheuscb20x6ae6…c22d | No | 280 | 53.6¢ | $183 | — |
| cr70xa28e…b220 | Yes | 500 | 50.6¢ | $173 | — |
| bakayo33 - 99340x343d…cd2e | No | 254 | 43.5¢ | $166 | Positive+$2.02 per $100 · 982 bets |
| Mahnic0xdf34…dc86 | Yes | 453 | 49.2¢ | $156 | — |
| GenaTheBondKilIer0xd632…8afb | Yes | 452 | 59.2¢ | $156 | — |
| Delarge0xabd8…141d | No | 230 | 45.0¢ | $151 | — |
| mewmew10xe95e…61f2 | Yes | 432 | 57.4¢ | $149 | Losing−$1.03 per $100 · 1,290 bets |
| Porx0xa0bc…d428 | Yes | 400 | 38.0¢ | $138 | Proven+$7.58 per $100 · 3,059 bets |
| copefan0x9592…a85b | No | 200 | 51.0¢ | $131 | — |
| ArkiYo0x1b7c…20a6 | No | 194 | 41.2¢ | $127 | — |
| 0xa9c2…e2c4 | No | 191 | 52.3¢ | $125 | — |
| Deihero0x093c…bc8b | No | 190 | 52.6¢ | $124 | — |
| 0x9a35…4d50 | No | 185 | 56.2¢ | $121 | — |
| WhiteRiceHoldCo0xeb03…5d15 | No | 181 | 58.9¢ | $118 | — |
| LlamaBanana0xe876…c671 | No | 178 | 39.3¢ | $117 | — |
| 0x498f…af74 | No | 160 | 54.0¢ | $105 | — |
| 00000000000000x90xe63a…0679 | Yes | 300 | 37.0¢ | $103 | — |
| rocky420060x85d5…bbf0 | Yes | 299 | 46.7¢ | $103 | — |
| filthymudeok0xbbe3…5b92 | No | 149 | 51.7¢ | $98 | Losing−$11.70 per $100 · 325 bets |
| trx10xc6a2…c9b7 | No | 147 | 61.0¢ | $96 | Proven+$5.61 per $100 · 172 bets |
| 0x364f…e9c9 | No | 122 | 42.6¢ | $80 | — |
| vonPommern0x78ae…143a | No | 121 | 43.8¢ | $79 | — |
| Konfucious0xac76…9359 | No | 101 | 56.5¢ | $66 | — |
| Maru.lucky.nala.lenu0x392a…262d | No | 100 | 56.0¢ | $66 | Losing−$1.59 per $100 · 306 bets |
| petronov0x6dbc…52fa | No | 100 | 49.0¢ | $66 | — |
| Dodexo0xebdf…ac87 | No | 100 | 40.0¢ | $66 | — |
| 0x1a2d…2c6a | No | 98 | 51.0¢ | $64 | — |
| Iho0x9199…8638 | No | 97 | 51.5¢ | $64 | — |
| asterley0xe762…064b | No | 88 | 44.0¢ | $57 | — |
| takacsbenyo870xef70…7f2b | No | 87 | 53.0¢ | $57 | — |
| kanhaoleaha0xd98a…4db0 | Yes | 160 | 62.0¢ | $55 | — |
| olrulius0x0a9b…074b | No | 80 | 49.0¢ | $52 | — |
| tinman20x9bae…5d34 | Yes | 150 | 56.9¢ | $52 | — |
| 0x23d9…4f2e | No | 78 | 47.5¢ | $51 | — |
| abdoohl0x8e4f…4594 | No | 73 | 48.9¢ | $48 | — |
| whumpa0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | 136 | 48.2¢ | $47 | — |
| 0x1c55…aaaa | No | 70 | 55.0¢ | $46 | — |
| bigm4c0xf97f…7b69 | No | 69 | 42.0¢ | $45 | — |
| 0x4e84…ef69 | Yes | 129 | 35.4¢ | $45 | Break-even+$0.27 per $100 · 817 bets |
| Motosha0x124f…0dea | No | 64 | 42.0¢ | $42 | — |
| MarineGravitta0xd458…50c9 | No | 64 | 47.3¢ | $42 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 117 | 40.1¢ | $40 | Losing−$2.52 per $100 · 124,382+ bets · updating |
| Oskoreiter0x4518…1cac | Yes | 112 | 58.3¢ | $39 | — |
| 0x09d2…a3ac | Yes | 90 | 52.8¢ | $31 | Losing−$11.06 per $100 · 306 bets |
| BigBoiBettin0x48ee…008c | Yes | 87 | 46.0¢ | $30 | Positive+$19.61 per $100 · 263 bets |
| 0x73cc…e708 | Yes | 86 | 63.1¢ | $30 | — |
| Mr.Alexx0x1a1f…cfdc | Yes | 80 | 61.0¢ | $28 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 78 | 59.0¢ | $27 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,987 bets |
| Leclerc040x38cf…d885 | Yes | 71 | 35.0¢ | $25 | Losing−$4.36 per $100 · 1,449 bets |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | Yes | 68 | 36.0¢ | $23 | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | Yes | 60 | 60.3¢ | $21 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| cx20xfd04…cfbe | Yes | 50 | 61.6¢ | $17 | — |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | Yes | 50 | 38.0¢ | $17 | Break-even+$0.33 per $100 · 3,303 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 48 | 41.6¢ | $16 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0x7969…ed43 | Yes | 42 | 54.0¢ | $15 | New4 settled bets |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | 40 | 59.0¢ | $14 | — |
| LeChatonFat0x9629…ee15 | Yes | 33 | 60.0¢ | $12 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 30 | 41.0¢ | $10 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| S8880x0711…f03c | Yes | 30 | 59.3¢ | $10 | Proven+$9.11 per $100 · 9,042 bets |
| needleladder0x4462…bfdf | Yes | 30 | 35.0¢ | $10 | — |
| xSundancer0xfdc3…f14e | Yes | 22 | 45.0¢ | $8 | — |
| Wiggly0x3a67…6095 | Yes | 20 | 45.4¢ | $7 | Break-even−$0.54 per $100 · 889 bets |
| 0x9161…fb65 | Yes | 19 | 59.0¢ | $7 | — |
| 0x19e5…d7cd | Yes | 16 | 49.8¢ | $6 | Positive+$5.87 per $100 · 217 bets |
| kirby260xa0d3…5b5e | Yes | 15 | 56.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$6.53 per $100 · 3,226 bets |
| RolandZhang0x0cd6…2784 | Yes | 10 | 39.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$7.28 per $100 · 216 bets |
| Dufoos0x79d6…d2e2 | Yes | 10 | 53.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x8c94…2e06 | Yes | 10 | 57.3¢ | $3 | — |
| asdfasdf110xc216…888c | Yes | 10 | 39.0¢ | $3 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.