Market · 2 of 2 outcomes
Russia coup attempt in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 18:53 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian1010x5408…0466 | No | 7,914 | 95.9¢ | $7.64K | — |
| bazooka10x031d…6570 | No | 6,050 | 90.5¢ | $5.84K | Positive+$1.21 per $100 · 234 bets |
| ANGGGuess0xab01…2558 | No | 3,200 | 93.6¢ | $3.09K | New10 settled bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | No | 3,000 | 94.0¢ | $2.9K | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,273 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 2,198 | 93.1¢ | $2.12K | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,955 bets |
| C-Ride0x4ed7…767e | No | 1,586 | 95.4¢ | $1.53K | New77 settled bets |
| feffefe0x8e34…4480 | No | 838 | 94.0¢ | $809 | Losing−$2.25 per $100 · 7,053 bets |
| 0x46a1…2736 | No | 600 | 84.0¢ | $579 | Positive+$1.73 per $100 · 711 bets |
| exelent0x3bfe…07a5 | No | 558 | 90.1¢ | $539 | — |
| lossii0xc4aa…b7d5 | No | 500 | 88.0¢ | $483 | — |
| alfredon9960xc96a…702c | No | 328 | 92.1¢ | $317 | — |
| Porx0xa0bc…d428 | No | 300 | 96.4¢ | $290 | Proven+$7.58 per $100 · 3,059 bets |
| ScientiaRex0x8f0b…8be2 | No | 263 | 89.5¢ | $254 | — |
| 0x91c7…b576 | No | 249 | 90.6¢ | $240 | Losing−$1.95 per $100 · 584 bets |
| DEGENKHAN0x21d0…ce91 | No | 229 | 90.8¢ | $221 | Positive+$1.05 per $100 · 2,670 bets |
| your-urologist0xc7e9…e046 | Yes | 5,222 | 10.0¢ | $180 | New1 settled bet |
| NellyDora0xca97…5409 | No | 150 | 94.0¢ | $145 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 1,328 bets |
| Sten-Viking0xbbe8…50e3 | Yes | 3,458 | 5.4¢ | $119 | — |
| alfredonatale9960x0156…3644 | No | 110 | 91.0¢ | $106 | — |
| 0xa309…e19c | No | 106 | 94.0¢ | $103 | — |
| delmedicopoetayloco0x3d94…a85f | No | 105 | 96.5¢ | $101 | New17 settled bets |
| keoen0xac99…1380 | No | 100 | 90.0¢ | $97 | — |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 99 | 96.4¢ | $95 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 872 bets |
| 0xf040…d11f | No | 97 | 88.0¢ | $94 | — |
| 0xa03a…baa9 | Yes | 2,585 | 10.0¢ | $89 | — |
| sleepymonkey0xce4d…d0e2 | No | 89 | 87.0¢ | $85 | — |
| TC20x4038…ca66 | No | 85 | 94.0¢ | $82 | — |
| sha-mt0x2e4f…d3a5 | Yes | 1,923 | 7.3¢ | $66 | — |
| stavr0x5c22…e4db | Yes | 1,814 | 6.4¢ | $63 | Break-even−$0.75 per $100 · 151 bets |
| billonbillion0xb769…847c | No | 63 | 96.1¢ | $61 | — |
| pamguez0x4732…3b86 | No | 60 | 96.3¢ | $58 | — |
| shosyddr0x3d1c…27be | No | 60 | 96.1¢ | $57 | — |
| 0xb6ce…895d | No | 57 | 94.0¢ | $55 | Positive+$1.74 per $100 · 1,065 bets |
| 0x4293…fbdc | No | 55 | 96.1¢ | $53 | — |
| Donny.T0x8190…b247 | No | 47 | 88.0¢ | $46 | Positive+$1.24 per $100 · 764 bets |
| jordysurfer0x65c4…ff0e | No | 40 | 89.0¢ | $39 | — |
| Kaldex0xeaca…21aa | Yes | 1,111 | 9.0¢ | $38 | — |
| 0x0783…4385 | Yes | 1,099 | 8.9¢ | $38 | — |
| 0x3eb7…a89e | Yes | 1,015 | 9.9¢ | $35 | New3 settled bets |
| valar9990xc7a7…42b8 | Yes | 1,000 | 9.0¢ | $35 | — |
| Dondigidin0x07b9…0fbb | No | 32 | 90.0¢ | $31 | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 991 bets |
| tricky.eth0xdd33…9a66 | Yes | 861 | 7.0¢ | $30 | — |
| Zelenearn00xb04a…acfc | No | 30 | 97.4¢ | $29 | — |
| 0x7b64…8440 | No | 25 | 94.0¢ | $24 | Losing−$3.09 per $100 · 962 bets |
| Kermit5230x2518…31ad | Yes | 644 | 9.3¢ | $22 | — |
| vovan10xf032…8e71 | Yes | 633 | 7.9¢ | $22 | — |
| Datsenko0xcdb4…9241 | Yes | 592 | 6.0¢ | $20 | — |
| Cohven0x3dab…e5d0 | No | 20 | 93.0¢ | $19 | Break-even+$0.03 per $100 · 1,527 bets |
| 0x5449…992b | No | 20 | 90.9¢ | $19 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 6,720 bets |
| Bravo4140xcd96…9ee4 | Yes | 529 | 10.4¢ | $18 | Proven+$10.64 per $100 · 153 bets |
| 77kbCcPrd2uG8w0x8dde…5045 | No | 18 | 95.0¢ | $17 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 174 bets |
| 0x9b08…3764 | No | 18 | 94.7¢ | $17 | — |
| p10ama0xe8a2…560e | Yes | 501 | 6.0¢ | $17 | — |
| Fuzzy-Logic0xdfe1…6c98 | Yes | 500 | 9.0¢ | $17 | Losing−$23.44 per $100 · 212 bets |
| evalso0x4222…aa99 | Yes | 443 | 11.3¢ | $15 | New30 settled bets |
| Arestovych0xd301…8a94 | No | 15 | 89.0¢ | $14 | — |
| ZnotluvuiSamez0x2889…9226 | Yes | 409 | 12.2¢ | $14 | New43 settled bets |
| GeorGona0xeb74…0610 | No | 14 | 93.0¢ | $14 | — |
| hspje890xb44b…3fdb | No | 14 | 92.0¢ | $14 | — |
| betstaker0xd3fe…2b28 | No | 13 | 94.0¢ | $13 | Losing−$5.29 per $100 · 542 bets |
| 0xd2cb…43ee | Yes | 358 | 11.9¢ | $12 | — |
| SomerandomD0x2db9…33f1 | No | 13 | 92.0¢ | $12 | Proven+$5.06 per $100 · 100 bets |
| zstaxpl4fpb20x92c7…89f5 | No | 12 | 94.9¢ | $12 | — |
| DaddyCow0x219f…12d8 | No | 10 | 88.0¢ | $10 | — |
| zeroriskcontrol0x248c…b093 | No | 10 | 90.0¢ | $10 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 261 | 5.3¢ | $9 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| 0xd53e…0b73 | No | 9 | 94.0¢ | $9 | — |
| taerv5340x30f9…fbfc | No | 8 | 80.0¢ | $8 | Proven+$32.96 per $100 · 2,276 bets |
| 0xblocked0x347b…c9bc | Yes | 216 | 6.9¢ | $7 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 12,117 bets |
| bruzze0x4f8c…b9ae | Yes | 214 | 7.0¢ | $7 | — |
| Zumala0x82c7…f1f8 | Yes | 200 | 9.0¢ | $7 | New78 settled bets |
| 0xe240…4681 | Yes | 200 | 10.0¢ | $7 | — |
| shilei070x8b22…47a1 | Yes | 200 | 8.0¢ | $7 | — |
| 0x7d70…80d2 | Yes | 188 | 7.4¢ | $7 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 167 | 3.7¢ | $6 | Losing−$2.57 per $100 · 124,099+ bets · updating |
| Cyclone0xf454…7ecc | Yes | 160 | 4.0¢ | $6 | — |
| itsKey0x95c2…485b | No | 5 | 94.0¢ | $5 | — |
| leCommissaire0x9238…b73e | Yes | 150 | 9.0¢ | $5 | Proven+$12.28 per $100 · 3,035 bets |
| 0xbea6…ed8d | Yes | 150 | 8.0¢ | $5 | — |
| wahoowahoo0x3c21…6c42 | No | 5 | 94.0¢ | $5 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 143 | 1.3¢ | $5 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| Gulgaio0x973e…37dc | Yes | 139 | 3.6¢ | $5 | — |
| purebaby0xe23b…f147 | Yes | 129 | 2.9¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x0061…5562 | Yes | 125 | 8.3¢ | $4 | — |
| WanderingImpulse0x32f0…7f90 | Yes | 125 | 8.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$29.82 per $100 · 550 bets |
| Kapustus0x6cbd…e951 | Yes | 111 | 9.0¢ | $4 | — |
| asterley0xe762…064b | Yes | 105 | 10.0¢ | $4 | — |
| rocky420250x8929…733e | Yes | 104 | 10.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x2915…0f67 | Yes | 100 | 10.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xba34…f1e0 | Yes | 100 | 8.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xbeff…08e4 | Yes | 100 | 10.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | 97 | 3.1¢ | $3 | Positive+$1.38 per $100 · 4,796 bets |
| lazymanatee0x5e3d…409b | Yes | 78 | 9.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Winner780x9a66…9bc0 | Yes | 72 | 7.8¢ | $2 | New47 settled bets |
| Hermnann0x3285…f63d | Yes | 71 | 7.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x3f6f…e536 | Yes | 71 | 7.0¢ | $2 | — |
| BettyBets0x4a7b…75cf | Yes | 71 | 7.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x09d2…a3ac | Yes | 70 | 6.4¢ | $2 | Losing−$11.06 per $100 · 306 bets |
| TheTurkishGoat0x1aab…6c6f | Yes | 64 | 11.0¢ | $2 | — |
| sallyruthstruik0x3a91…a770 | Yes | 60 | 6.0¢ | $2 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.