Market · 4 of 5 outcomes
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 16:46 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
9 proven traders are on Yes, 8 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | Yes | 8,315 | 63.6¢ | $5.07K | Positive+$3.90 per $100 · 1,966 bets |
| meagainsttheworld0x9592…a7b8 | No | 12,135 | 29.2¢ | $4.73K | Proven+$8.59 per $100 · 1,238 bets |
| eCash0x62cf…5826 | Yes | 7,743 | 62.8¢ | $4.72K | Proven+$6.07 per $100 · 625 bets |
| noib0x187f…5fee | No | 5,823 | 39.5¢ | $2.27K | Positive+$5.43 per $100 · 215 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | Yes | 3,552 | 65.1¢ | $2.17K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,694 bets |
| 8811120xd426…334a | No | 4,412 | 30.7¢ | $1.72K | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| OldZz0x298b…f406 | No | 3,205 | 37.4¢ | $1.25K | Losing−$8.55 per $100 · 232 bets |
| DooBieZ0xdb40…3612 | Yes | 2,000 | 63.5¢ | $1.22K | Break-even+$0.59 per $100 · 8,086 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 1,978 | 63.7¢ | $1.21K | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 130,993 bets |
| cambridgeisaac0xb51b…b4d9 | Yes | 1,803 | 72.8¢ | $1.1K | Proven+$2.33 per $100 · 2,456 bets |
| 0xfc2f…10c7 | No | 2,118 | 33.5¢ | $826 | Positive+$1.66 per $100 · 1,149 bets |
| nope30500x6114…cff0 | No | 2,007 | 34.3¢ | $783 | Losing−$1.97 per $100 · 100 bets |
| katbot0x3007…763a | Yes | 1,238 | 70.8¢ | $755 | Proven+$2.76 per $100 · 159 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 1,052 | 58.6¢ | $642 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,847 bets |
| BaruchGuilty0xb3be…1015 | Yes | 1,037 | 68.5¢ | $633 | — |
| Beyonddream0xb24c…eefe | Yes | 1,000 | 75.0¢ | $610 | Break-even−$0.68 per $100 · 503 bets |
| yeeTradez0x1181…9e90 | Yes | 1,000 | 73.0¢ | $610 | Losing−$1.63 per $100 · 203 bets |
| MEPP0x6d9f…9790 | Yes | 984 | 68.9¢ | $600 | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 1,289 bets |
| RogerFed0xe958…66b7 | Yes | 983 | 67.6¢ | $599 | — |
| BikesAreTheBikes0x215a…254c | Yes | 960 | 60.3¢ | $586 | Positive+$6.62 per $100 · 6,737 bets |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | No | 1,200 | 36.0¢ | $468 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| SleeperHunter0x606f…1083 | Yes | 756 | 71.0¢ | $461 | Positive+$1.81 per $100 · 377 bets |
| Glicha0x91ff…8f40 | Yes | 718 | 68.8¢ | $438 | — |
| 0x223b…85df | No | 1,070 | 27.0¢ | $417 | Proven+$12.29 per $100 · 158 bets |
| Aragorn-II0xc9ad…79d0 | Yes | 667 | 68.0¢ | $407 | — |
| StarMaster0xeca0…e8f8 | No | 1,000 | 37.9¢ | $390 | Proven+$2.31 per $100 · 4,789 bets |
| sqaolkytrpoi0xd6dd…98ee | Yes | 573 | 59.1¢ | $349 | Proven+$5.99 per $100 · 3,127 bets |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e050xe234…304a | Yes | 470 | 73.4¢ | $287 | Positive+$1.66 per $100 · 636 bets |
| Gl4d0x1e3a…9e14 | Yes | 400 | 62.0¢ | $244 | Positive+$1.33 per $100 · 2,434 bets |
| AlphaGooo0xfc55…b21d | No | 600 | 31.7¢ | $234 | — |
| ynadinsky0x2ff6…7c7b | No | 541 | 37.0¢ | $211 | New51 settled bets |
| ja40x501b…fba0 | No | 507 | 38.0¢ | $198 | Losing−$6.35 per $100 · 157 bets |
| RAJAGO0xe154…14e8 | No | 500 | 30.2¢ | $195 | — |
| PMplayer0x174b…5a55 | No | 500 | 33.8¢ | $195 | Losing−$17.89 per $100 · 173 bets |
| johnnath12220x4b28…15df | Yes | 319 | 64.0¢ | $195 | Positive+$3.09 per $100 · 1,177 bets |
| 0x6ead…14f8 | Yes | 295 | 67.7¢ | $180 | Positive+$6.58 per $100 · 200 bets |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | Yes | 273 | 65.2¢ | $167 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 267 | 56.0¢ | $163 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,059 bets |
| Notard0x91c9…d319 | Yes | 261 | 69.4¢ | $159 | — |
| KakiBatusik0x371c…c236 | No | 384 | 28.7¢ | $150 | Proven+$3.58 per $100 · 937 bets |
| DawnOfYemen0xc34a…6007 | Yes | 200 | 76.0¢ | $122 | Proven+$3.27 per $100 · 1,824 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 200 | 62.0¢ | $122 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| 0x3b08…def3 | No | 313 | 32.0¢ | $122 | New8 settled bets |
| Sakali0x38b6…7bac | No | 300 | 33.0¢ | $117 | New45 settled bets |
| 0xe948…ecc7 | No | 300 | 37.0¢ | $117 | — |
| Aleksei-Ivanovich0xf0ee…4b33 | Yes | 177 | 70.8¢ | $108 | — |
| numerology0xabd3…637f | No | 264 | 39.3¢ | $103 | — |
| mnov0xa07f…52ec | No | 250 | 29.0¢ | $98 | — |
| MrMelonHead0x9f66…3a50 | Yes | 159 | 63.0¢ | $97 | — |
| Mikelaawrey0x6bc7…4ad4 | No | 247 | 30.8¢ | $96 | Proven+$66.61 per $100 · 500 bets |
| 0xeffe…5efa | Yes | 156 | 64.0¢ | $95 | New85 settled bets |
| 52centis0xcb4c…6d64 | No | 196 | 33.0¢ | $76 | Losing−$12.98 per $100 · 182 bets |
| Rawdy0xc6fa…51e5 | No | 193 | 30.5¢ | $75 | Losing−$4.74 per $100 · 11,532 bets |
| RATHMA40xf9ac…806e | Yes | 100 | 72.0¢ | $61 | — |
| Fr5660x6abf…0d4a | Yes | 100 | 66.0¢ | $61 | New41 settled bets |
| Zeongweonkoo8976510xd362…9684 | No | 151 | 36.3¢ | $59 | — |
| proseandcons0x5830…757f | No | 150 | 36.0¢ | $59 | New50 settled bets |
| whumpa0xe000…cbb1 | No | 140 | 34.1¢ | $55 | — |
| 0x27e0…0987 | No | 135 | 29.6¢ | $53 | New11 settled bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 83 | 68.7¢ | $51 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,947 bets |
| DiamondSander0x48a1…2e04 | No | 129 | 31.0¢ | $50 | New48 settled bets |
| 0xbeef…620e | Yes | 80 | 62.8¢ | $49 | — |
| WashTrade0x4c2d…f8ae | No | 125 | 37.0¢ | $49 | Proven+$5.16 per $100 · 1,285 bets |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | No | 120 | 37.0¢ | $47 | — |
| HeziKadosi0x9799…be8f | No | 118 | 38.0¢ | $46 | — |
| 0xce0c…2945 | Yes | 67 | 75.0¢ | $41 | — |
| Luciwini0x5549…f0fa | No | 101 | 25.3¢ | $39 | New35 settled bets |
| friendlyusername0xea30…f2a9 | No | 100 | 35.0¢ | $39 | — |
| howay0x141e…b254 | No | 100 | 30.0¢ | $39 | New11 settled bets |
| purplegatto0x032e…2a9e | No | 91 | 23.0¢ | $35 | Losing−$7.02 per $100 · 15,941 bets |
| yangwoo0x4cd9…5e48 | Yes | 58 | 70.0¢ | $35 | New10 settled bets |
| 0xd640…480c | No | 88 | 38.0¢ | $34 | Losing−$32.74 per $100 · 775 bets |
| 0x5d5e…9746 | No | 80 | 33.0¢ | $31 | New65 settled bets |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | Yes | 50 | 63.0¢ | $31 | Break-even+$0.33 per $100 · 3,303 bets |
| ClaudeIntern0x95b3…1df1 | Yes | 48 | 71.0¢ | $29 | Losing−$13.46 per $100 · 104 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 47 | 62.6¢ | $29 | Losing−$2.61 per $100 · 123,902+ bets · updating |
| ForeverRed0xa577…b06a | Yes | 43 | 70.0¢ | $26 | — |
| An5240x5bdc…d929 | No | 66 | 32.1¢ | $26 | New14 settled bets |
| bianshui10xa498…ef3f | Yes | 42 | 70.0¢ | $26 | — |
| adasol0x5297…7b99 | No | 65 | 27.5¢ | $25 | Positive+$1.62 per $100 · 488 bets |
| 0x7400…0875 | No | 65 | 31.0¢ | $25 | Losing−$18.84 per $100 · 176 bets |
| bakayo33 - 99340x343d…cd2e | Yes | 40 | 71.0¢ | $24 | Positive+$2.02 per $100 · 982 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 60 | 42.0¢ | $23 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| Dima790xdd5a…4d23 | No | 54 | 37.0¢ | $21 | Positive+$1.95 per $100 · 443 bets |
| soundboyfunk0xb30a…3491 | No | 52 | 29.0¢ | $20 | — |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No | 50 | 24.7¢ | $20 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 575 bets |
| DJa0xf9df…3b0a | No | 50 | 29.0¢ | $20 | — |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | No | 50 | 29.0¢ | $19 | Losing−$2.92 per $100 · 1,163 bets |
| LeChatonFat0x9629…ee15 | Yes | 31 | 64.0¢ | $19 | — |
| 0x8021…6189 | Yes | 31 | 72.0¢ | $19 | Proven+$2.71 per $100 · 166 bets |
| iuH1398SI0x44b7…2e99 | No | 47 | 24.7¢ | $18 | Losing−$4.94 per $100 · 743 bets |
| ThequalityRock0xfe01…202d | No | 45 | 31.0¢ | $18 | — |
| Vrtk100x2b24…c361 | No | 41 | 31.0¢ | $16 | — |
| Avenger8180xc623…3ba8 | Yes | 25 | 70.0¢ | $15 | — |
| oilstud0xf538…7c7c | Yes | 18 | 44.2¢ | $11 | — |
| 0xecf9…328a | Yes | 16 | 66.0¢ | $10 | — |
| seppohovi0x2d4c…2dd4 | Yes | 16 | 63.8¢ | $10 | New59 settled bets |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 15 | 72.0¢ | $9 | Losing−$2.72 per $100 · 78,097+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.