Market · 3 of 5 outcomes
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 22:34 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 7 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dragontree0x2c39…56dc | Yes | 15,541 | 72.9¢ | $11.7K | Proven+$2.69 per $100 · 3,239 bets |
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | Yes | 8,091 | 75.9¢ | $6.11K | Positive+$3.91 per $100 · 1,963 bets |
| 0x6bab…0fe5 | Yes | 3,765 | 71.3¢ | $2.84K | Proven+$7.70 per $100 · 371 bets |
| pakukudolphi0x88e2…7489 | Yes | 2,471 | 75.0¢ | $1.87K | Proven+$5.66 per $100 · 278 bets |
| EmanuelEG0x9baa…b2f9 | No | 7,234 | 24.7¢ | $1.77K | — |
| noib0x187f…5fee | No | 6,820 | 28.6¢ | $1.67K | Positive+$5.43 per $100 · 215 bets |
| tatimatidaoc0x85fa…d2c6 | No | 6,420 | 33.5¢ | $1.57K | — |
| laureman0x1359…092e | Yes | 2,000 | 78.0¢ | $1.51K | Positive+$1.13 per $100 · 112 bets |
| eCash0x62cf…5826 | Yes | 2,000 | 70.0¢ | $1.51K | Proven+$6.06 per $100 · 622 bets |
| cashy0x8f42…b88f | No | 5,555 | 24.0¢ | $1.36K | Proven+$11.86 per $100 · 1,051 bets |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e050xe234…304a | Yes | 1,762 | 77.0¢ | $1.33K | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 625 bets |
| Huludubu0xe738…df65 | No | 2,872 | 25.0¢ | $704 | Break-even+$0.43 per $100 · 2,529 bets |
| Everestpredictions0xceca…3f67 | Yes | 900 | 74.0¢ | $680 | Break-even−$0.24 per $100 · 817 bets |
| 0xd640…480c | Yes | 893 | 75.0¢ | $674 | Losing−$32.74 per $100 · 775 bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | Yes | 800 | 70.1¢ | $604 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| totti820x5f83…5dc1 | Yes | 694 | 72.0¢ | $524 | — |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | Yes | 511 | 71.4¢ | $386 | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 1,162 bets |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No | 1,333 | 24.0¢ | $327 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 569 bets |
| iuH1398SI0x44b7…2e99 | No | 1,333 | 24.0¢ | $327 | Losing−$4.93 per $100 · 738 bets |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | Yes | 389 | 72.5¢ | $294 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| 0x7774…6ba4 | Yes | 348 | 69.2¢ | $263 | — |
| IceWindL0xdae6…e440 | No | 833 | 24.0¢ | $204 | Proven+$7.53 per $100 · 261 bets |
| abdoohl0x8e4f…4594 | No | 703 | 22.9¢ | $172 | — |
| 0x6a86…8a9a | No | 690 | 29.0¢ | $169 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 657 | 13.0¢ | $161 | Proven+$3.50 per $100 · 13,216 bets |
| 0xf27d…e6d3 | No | 620 | 26.0¢ | $152 | Positive+$7.37 per $100 · 1,338 bets |
| OnlyInGodWeTrust0x0785…ecb4 | No | 500 | 28.0¢ | $122 | — |
| MrMelonHead0x9f66…3a50 | Yes | 139 | 72.0¢ | $105 | — |
| Sakali0x38b6…7bac | No | 400 | 25.0¢ | $98 | — |
| 0xf574…6163 | No | 398 | 25.1¢ | $98 | — |
| meagainsttheworld0x9592…a7b8 | No | 396 | 27.9¢ | $97 | Proven+$8.59 per $100 · 1,238 bets |
| televisionloud0x6c1c…1ac2 | Yes | 123 | 76.3¢ | $93 | — |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | 120 | 75.0¢ | $91 | — |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | No | 347 | 24.0¢ | $85 | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,255 bets |
| GoodLuck0x5065…fdbb | No | 337 | 22.0¢ | $83 | — |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 327 | 22.6¢ | $80 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,039 bets |
| fd43gsfg0x4754…1210 | Yes | 100 | 76.0¢ | $76 | — |
| nchgbhy0x57b0…76f4 | No | 295 | 19.3¢ | $72 | Proven+$2.09 per $100 · 2,943 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 289 | 27.0¢ | $71 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 126,571+ bets · updating |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 90 | 72.0¢ | $68 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,913 bets |
| Notard0x91c9…d319 | Yes | 82 | 72.9¢ | $62 | — |
| delta-fox0xdf88…70f1 | No | 234 | 25.0¢ | $57 | — |
| Rishrash0x2626…2b65 | No | 200 | 26.0¢ | $49 | — |
| 0xe948…ecc7 | No | 200 | 26.5¢ | $49 | — |
| 0xdc36…1aad | No | 197 | 29.1¢ | $48 | — |
| mrcormoran0x5027…2f82 | No | 172 | 29.0¢ | $42 | — |
| HeziKadosi0x9799…be8f | No | 172 | 29.1¢ | $42 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 158 | 24.9¢ | $39 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| Tallguy25270x0cf6…3ed9 | Yes | 50 | 81.0¢ | $38 | — |
| DJa0xf9df…3b0a | Yes | 50 | 50.0¢ | $38 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 153 | 17.0¢ | $37 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,032 bets |
| Leclerc040x38cf…d885 | Yes | 37 | 68.0¢ | $28 | Losing−$4.46 per $100 · 1,422 bets |
| rainbowlilies0x2106…4dea | No | 100 | 24.9¢ | $25 | Positive+$6.97 per $100 · 10,606 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 100 | 25.0¢ | $25 | Losing−$2.85 per $100 · 108,352+ bets · updating |
| nickthechopper0xe807…4d35 | Yes | 32 | 69.8¢ | $24 | — |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | Yes | 32 | 72.8¢ | $24 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| Sshauhs0xa668…54fa | No | 96 | 26.0¢ | $24 | — |
| 0x28e7…98b8 | No | 96 | 25.1¢ | $24 | — |
| BigFishHunter0x75dc…698e | Yes | 29 | 76.0¢ | $22 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | 90 | 26.0¢ | $22 | Losing−$8.20 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| 0x6741…2b47 | Yes | 28 | 74.0¢ | $21 | — |
| GoodTillDate0x90a9…1bf1 | No | 83 | 24.0¢ | $20 | — |
| Dima790xdd5a…4d23 | No | 77 | 26.0¢ | $19 | Positive+$1.95 per $100 · 443 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 22 | 73.5¢ | $17 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| FelTri0x00bb…33c5 | Yes | 21 | 72.0¢ | $16 | — |
| Praescientia0x94bb…c320 | No | 55 | 25.0¢ | $14 | Break-even+$0.39 per $100 · 6,664 bets |
| 0x19e5…d7cd | Yes | 17 | 72.1¢ | $13 | — |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.0x29ed…a8da | No | 50 | 27.0¢ | $12 | — |
| Mikelaawrey0x6bc7…4ad4 | No | 50 | 27.0¢ | $12 | — |
| seppohovi0x2d4c…2dd4 | Yes | 16 | 72.4¢ | $12 | — |
| Yishtabach-Shemo0x9986…27ae | No | 46 | 26.0¢ | $11 | — |
| xSundancer0xfdc3…f14e | Yes | 14 | 72.0¢ | $10 | — |
| qcp30xd663…ca64 | No | 42 | 25.0¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x70a1…a9f1 | No | 38 | 26.0¢ | $9 | — |
| 0x3e8a…0f61 | No | 36 | 27.0¢ | $9 | — |
| 0x6c76…d9af | No | 34 | 29.1¢ | $8 | — |
| Shsjxyse0x31b9…06ce | No | 31 | 29.0¢ | $8 | — |
| 0xbeef…620e | Yes | 10 | 75.7¢ | $8 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 27 | 27.0¢ | $7 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
| Wiggly0x3a67…6095 | Yes | 8 | 72.0¢ | $6 | — |
| curiousfund0x4b3a…04be | Yes | 8 | 72.4¢ | $6 | — |
| JEndo0xfb58…39e5 | Yes | 8 | 72.4¢ | $6 | — |
| 0xcb17…2955 | No | 22 | 26.3¢ | $5 | — |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | No | 22 | 27.7¢ | $5 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| wjusty0x1f2c…15a9 | No | 20 | 26.0¢ | $5 | — |
| LeChatonFat0x9629…ee15 | Yes | 6 | 72.0¢ | $5 | — |
| thunderquack0x07fd…ad26 | Yes | 6 | 70.0¢ | $4 | — |
| congmqian-gendan0x9e16…7a42 | Yes | 5 | 74.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xblink0xf6d3…7e6c | Yes | 5 | 73.0¢ | $4 | — |
| KiraHK10xa87f…864d | No | 6 | 23.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x40ed…726d | Yes | 1 | 68.0¢ | $1 | — |
| random-random1230xa1cc…fa62 | Yes | 1 | 72.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | No | 1 | 25.0¢ | $0 | — |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | Yes | 0 | 70.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.12 per $100 · 9,353 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.