Market · 3 of 4 outcomes
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by March 31, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 16:52 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TheNobleSavage0xe6f3…2568 | No | 331 | 88.0¢ | $268 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 643 | 14.5¢ | $122 | Losing−$2.54 per $100 · 125,071 bets |
| theitaliangoats0x217a…86db | No | 105 | 95.7¢ | $85 | New15 settled bets |
| chaosj880xca12…ea03 | No | 80 | 81.0¢ | $65 | Proven+$2.86 per $100 · 3,013 bets |
| bakayo33 - 99340x343d…cd2e | No | 40 | 80.0¢ | $32 | Positive+$2.10 per $100 · 988 bets |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | No | 32 | 76.2¢ | $26 | Break-even+$0.32 per $100 · 3,316 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 20 | 82.0¢ | $16 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,223 bets |
| lolzzzlol0x7b25…e4be | No | 20 | 82.0¢ | $16 | Losing−$8.42 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| LeChatonFat0x9629…ee15 | No | 20 | 81.0¢ | $16 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 12 | 86.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$7.40 per $100 · 88,855+ bets · updating |
| congmqian-gendan0x9e16…7a42 | No | 5 | 80.0¢ | $4 | — |
| Tallguy25270x0cf6…3ed9 | Yes | 20 | 19.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$4.15 per $100 · 8,815 bets |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 1 | 5.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 0 | 16.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.00 per $100 · 51,215 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 0 | 19.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.67 per $100 · 13,185 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.