Market · 4 of 4 outcomes
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 09:20 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
8 proven traders are on Yes, 7 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| alwaysOn0xc550…272d | No | 11,804 | 88.9¢ | $11.4K | Positive+$1.59 per $100 · 1,030 bets |
| Mithrandiric0x99cb…f629 | No | 10,718 | 82.0¢ | $10.4K | — |
| denizz0xbaa2…2c73 | No | 8,365 | 81.4¢ | $8.08K | Proven+$8.43 per $100 · 1,271 bets |
| MEPP0x6d9f…9790 | No | 7,675 | 79.4¢ | $7.42K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 1,289 bets |
| Kevindoto0xcd71…d127 | No | 5,000 | 90.0¢ | $4.83K | Proven+$4.55 per $100 · 728 bets |
| afdafdafdafdafd0x410a…2643 | No | 2,500 | 89.0¢ | $2.42K | Losing−$2.15 per $100 · 311 bets |
| 0xc3db…0f98 | No | 2,395 | 70.7¢ | $2.32K | Positive+$12.78 per $100 · 405 bets |
| 0x2c79…e0aa | No | 1,285 | 96.0¢ | $1.24K | Proven+$2.22 per $100 · 218 bets |
| ydxistheking0xdbf7…fbea | No | 1,108 | 76.0¢ | $1.07K | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 1,038 | 88.0¢ | $1K | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,320 bets |
| dfgthjytrdsdf0xedb6…77fc | No | 850 | 90.0¢ | $822 | — |
| drfhd0xefd5…1645 | No | 700 | 71.0¢ | $677 | — |
| REGTDRHTD0x28a8…8faa | No | 500 | 91.0¢ | $483 | — |
| hjgfvg0x741c…dd84 | No | 500 | 87.0¢ | $483 | — |
| Xendo10x9078…26af | No | 466 | 75.0¢ | $451 | Proven+$14.04 per $100 · 191 bets |
| fgjnfhjdb0xa8b6…64bd | No | 450 | 91.0¢ | $435 | — |
| Just-Do-It0x18b9…a226 | No | 433 | 92.4¢ | $419 | — |
| dgfbgsxf0xd7fb…13a3 | No | 430 | 87.0¢ | $416 | — |
| sdrhertdrf0x09b5…8dc2 | No | 400 | 87.0¢ | $387 | — |
| srgrgrx0x11ed…68c7 | No | 400 | 89.0¢ | $387 | — |
| rfdbhdth0x9946…c6c2 | No | 400 | 90.0¢ | $387 | — |
| sghbrfsd0xeaeb…f03e | No | 400 | 87.0¢ | $387 | — |
| sedrfgdsr0xfe92…c492 | No | 400 | 71.0¢ | $387 | — |
| ytkjgfydhh0x59a6…1ae1 | No | 380 | 89.0¢ | $367 | — |
| trhfyth0x8db8…a9ba | No | 370 | 87.0¢ | $358 | — |
| fngjufd0xb64e…4baa | No | 360 | 89.0¢ | $348 | — |
| yikaiz0xe258…d084 | Yes | 10,214 | 11.7¢ | $342 | New15 settled bets |
| ergrgzc0x2b6d…6753 | No | 350 | 89.0¢ | $338 | — |
| sdgvas0xa542…e752 | No | 350 | 71.0¢ | $338 | — |
| dthftzz0xc1c6…66a5 | No | 350 | 89.0¢ | $338 | — |
| machine3210x079f…28df | Yes | 9,971 | 30.1¢ | $334 | — |
| fnyhjfyh0x36a1…9d2a | No | 340 | 89.0¢ | $329 | — |
| dthdts0xed97…9839 | No | 330 | 71.0¢ | $319 | New15 settled bets |
| Dima790xdd5a…4d23 | No | 329 | 91.2¢ | $318 | Positive+$1.95 per $100 · 443 bets |
| justme0030xcb89…a2e8 | No | 322 | 88.0¢ | $311 | Losing−$1.29 per $100 · 343 bets |
| yjyfdf0xd770…652a | No | 320 | 71.0¢ | $309 | — |
| srgbrf0x393d…4dd7 | No | 300 | 71.0¢ | $290 | — |
| ftgnjhfy0x79a3…2e6e | No | 300 | 87.0¢ | $290 | — |
| fyjytgd0x7dc9…dd2d | No | 300 | 71.0¢ | $290 | — |
| sdrgrb0x8f80…0efc | No | 300 | 87.0¢ | $290 | New9 settled bets |
| ththfsdc0x98d7…4c49 | No | 300 | 90.0¢ | $290 | — |
| FSRHGD0x264f…9e73 | No | 290 | 90.0¢ | $280 | — |
| segvrsgvr0x8a09…8256 | No | 280 | 90.0¢ | $271 | — |
| fgtjhyfjhs0x6faf…5873 | No | 270 | 90.0¢ | $261 | — |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No | 269 | 89.4¢ | $260 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 575 bets |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | Yes | 7,216 | 10.6¢ | $242 | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,103 bets |
| sfhbgrfdhb0x66a7…4f59 | No | 250 | 91.0¢ | $242 | — |
| Talophex0xd0db…b117 | No | 250 | 95.0¢ | $242 | Proven+$2.05 per $100 · 1,929 bets |
| rtjyrjndcf0x8fd4…a37d | No | 230 | 90.0¢ | $222 | — |
| Shadursky0x63c6…3e53 | No | 221 | 90.9¢ | $213 | New86 settled bets |
| tygjnmgyj0x9cb0…0cf5 | No | 220 | 90.0¢ | $213 | — |
| pbdlr0x1c72…cc7f | No | 211 | 95.0¢ | $203 | — |
| DTFHDTGHDT0x7638…c900 | No | 210 | 90.0¢ | $203 | — |
| mindeirs0xe7cb…d447 | Yes | 2,839 | 27.0¢ | $95 | — |
| sdegjn0x5d8a…5771 | Yes | 2,700 | 29.0¢ | $90 | — |
| kgrjbuo0xe544…3028 | Yes | 2,700 | 13.0¢ | $90 | — |
| tgyrjsdrg0xe233…7936 | Yes | 2,600 | 11.0¢ | $87 | New3 settled bets |
| jsjr0x12bf…ddaf | Yes | 2,489 | 9.5¢ | $83 | Losing−$1.74 per $100 · 688 bets |
| groth0x71ab…f015 | Yes | 2,407 | 10.3¢ | $81 | Proven+$20.88 per $100 · 540 bets |
| tedhth0x321b…b02c | Yes | 2,200 | 10.0¢ | $74 | — |
| 0x1bf6…2ecd | Yes | 2,000 | 5.0¢ | $67 | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 159 bets |
| 0x9e5d…c928 | Yes | 1,949 | 25.7¢ | $65 | — |
| kjgyugy0xd8d5…8262 | Yes | 1,900 | 9.0¢ | $64 | — |
| xfile0xd267…9dc6 | Yes | 1,000 | 5.0¢ | $34 | Proven+$4.69 per $100 · 1,974 bets |
| TronOG0x77c3…00c8 | Yes | 853 | 16.3¢ | $29 | Proven+$3.07 per $100 · 406 bets |
| 0x9221…d600 | Yes | 769 | 13.0¢ | $26 | — |
| thecaricature0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | 600 | 3.3¢ | $20 | Losing−$5.95 per $100 · 8,491 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 574 | 5.0¢ | $19 | Losing−$7.00 per $100 · 51,215 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 521 | 3.5¢ | $17 | Losing−$2.53 per $100 · 124,761+ bets · updating |
| Jahnoon0x68bf…459f | Yes | 500 | 6.3¢ | $17 | — |
| enrico-vasaio0xcc79…1c2a | Yes | 500 | 12.0¢ | $17 | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 1,143 bets |
| GodRama0x8b72…6dbe | Yes | 439 | 13.0¢ | $15 | Positive+$4.43 per $100 · 3,463 bets |
| Frank-Lean0xadab…55fb | Yes | 417 | 12.0¢ | $14 | — |
| endo20x5c29…d822 | Yes | 400 | 12.0¢ | $13 | — |
| tradingdecs0x7fc6…7306 | Yes | 400 | 10.0¢ | $13 | Losing−$33.29 per $100 · 568 bets |
| AnCap.Investor0xc6f7…87ae | Yes | 400 | 10.0¢ | $13 | — |
| Needtoneet0xa608…07b3 | Yes | 385 | 13.0¢ | $13 | — |
| Perypery0x0a7a…df1b | Yes | 375 | 3.5¢ | $13 | Positive+$11.86 per $100 · 5,341 bets |
| Matanyec0x19f0…e44e | Yes | 350 | 24.0¢ | $12 | — |
| Geckowolf0x70e2…5c64 | Yes | 333 | 15.0¢ | $11 | — |
| Curry110x82dd…35f0 | Yes | 300 | 10.0¢ | $10 | — |
| Kruidvat0xe2a5…51b4 | Yes | 300 | 28.0¢ | $10 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 290 | 3.1¢ | $10 | Positive+$4.52 per $100 · 88,243+ bets · updating |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | Yes | 272 | 15.0¢ | $9 | Proven+$2.01 per $100 · 20,221 bets |
| alexludoman0xe117…b4e7 | Yes | 254 | 9.0¢ | $9 | — |
| oristones0x9285…359c | Yes | 245 | 14.7¢ | $8 | — |
| 0x1c3d…2ff5 | Yes | 226 | 7.0¢ | $8 | Proven+$4.03 per $100 · 1,177 bets |
| anothaonebitesthedust0x8bac…cb3f | Yes | 225 | 62.7¢ | $8 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 221 | 8.7¢ | $7 | Break-even−$0.76 per $100 · 88,011+ bets · updating |
| 0x036c…e838 | Yes | 210 | 4.8¢ | $7 | Losing−$19.74 per $100 · 953 bets |
| cd30gfu530p00xfd5a…aa7a | Yes | 209 | 12.1¢ | $7 | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 1,176 bets |
| Diplopia20x272c…7f07 | Yes | 200 | 8.1¢ | $7 | Positive+$1.24 per $100 · 811 bets |
| lionsh0x3d60…3834 | Yes | 200 | 37.0¢ | $7 | — |
| EpicFury0xeacf…3c55 | Yes | 200 | 10.0¢ | $7 | — |
| fiter0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | 200 | 2.1¢ | $7 | Positive+$42.72 per $100 · 2,781 bets |
| flykite0x29ae…8367 | Yes | 185 | 27.0¢ | $6 | — |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | Yes | 183 | 5.0¢ | $6 | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,286 bets |
| bulbnbob0x77b5…9170 | Yes | 174 | 25.0¢ | $6 | — |
| exr110xfde9…e91f | Yes | 167 | 12.0¢ | $6 | — |
| rocbalie20x7ce8…144a | Yes | 160 | 10.0¢ | $5 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.