Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? · Polyray
Market
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
Chance of Yes
▼ 2 pts this week
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Ends
Nov 1
in 18 days
Full rules
As written on Polymarket for “Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?”.
§1On September 30, 2026, FlyDubai flight FZ1073 from Dubai to Tel Aviv diverted to Saudi Arabia following an incident in the cockpit in which the co-pilot allegedly stabbed the captain. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/diverted-flydubai-flight-israel-was-not-hijacking-incident-israeli-prime-2026-09-30/).
§2This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli national government, or an authorized representative of the Israeli national government, publicly announces that Iran or its affiliated groups deliberately caused this incident, by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
§3Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
§4A public announcement refers to an on-the-record statement issued by the Israeli national government or by its authorized representatives acting in an official capacity on behalf of the Israeli national government.
§5A statement or press release issued by the Israeli national government or any of its agencies will qualify.
§6A Prime Minister or Cabinet Minister’s public statements will always be considered to be issued on-the-record in a capacity representing the Israeli national government for purposes of this market.
§7A statement from a lawmaker or other government official speaking in their own capacity or on behalf of a party not in government will not alone qualify.
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 08:10 UTC. Not financial advice.
§8For purposes of this market, an affiliated group of Iran is: any organization directly controlled by Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis ("Ansar Allah"), Kata'ib Hezbollah, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Badr Organization, and Harakat al-Nujaba.
§9An unlisted group will only qualify if the Israeli claim itself, or accompanying statements or releases, specifies that the group is a proxy of or otherwise is controlled or directed by Iran.
§10A general statement that it was conducted by an Iranian proxy will also qualify, even if no group is named.
§11Such a statement will be considered to claim that Iran or its affiliated groups deliberately caused the incident if it explicitly claims that Iran or an affiliated group ordered, carried out, planned, or otherwise directly aided or coordinated the incident.
§12Statements that attribute only inspiration or ideological influence (e.g., "this would not have happened if Iran didn't radicalize terrorists," "the co-pilot was influenced by Hamas' ideas") will not qualify.
§13Once a qualifying announcement has been made, no subsequent walkback or retraction will be relevant for purposes of this market.
§14The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli national government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolves "Yes" if Israel's government or an authorized representative publicly announces Iran or its affiliated groups deliberately caused this incident by…§2
Walkback ignored
Once a qualifying announcement is made, no later walkback or retraction matters for the market.§13
Inspiration only
Claims of only inspiration or ideological influence, like radicalization, do not qualify.§12
Unlisted group
An unlisted group qualifies only if the Israeli claim or accompanying statements say it is a proxy of or controlled by Iran.§9
Lawmaker statements
A lawmaker or official speaking in their own capacity, or for a non-government party, does not alone qualify.§7
Counted
A statement qualifies if it explicitly claims Iran or an affiliated group ordered, carried out, planned, directly aided or coordinated the incident.§11
Source
Official information from the Israeli national government is primary; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.§14
Closes
Nov 1, 2026 · 03:59 UTC
Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.