Market · 4 of 4 outcomes
Iran leadership change by October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 02:08 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
5 proven traders are on Yes, 8 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| stupid220x8afa…adb6 | No | 103,300 | 98.0¢ | $101K | Break-even−$0.83 per $100 · 918 bets |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No | 21,883 | 97.9¢ | $21.4K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 776 bets |
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | No | 16,784 | 97.7¢ | $16.4K | Positive+$3.90 per $100 · 1,966 bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 12,906 | 95.8¢ | $12.6K | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| TylerTurden0x69ea…15cd | No | 11,426 | 96.1¢ | $11.2K | Proven+$4.25 per $100 · 939 bets |
| justme0030xcb89…a2e8 | No | 7,977 | 97.0¢ | $7.82K | Losing−$1.29 per $100 · 343 bets |
| 0x0010…eb26 | No | 7,000 | 98.2¢ | $6.86K | New50 settled bets |
| Jjw0xb1a1…d308 | No | 3,612 | 96.1¢ | $3.54K | Positive+$1.30 per $100 · 2,249 bets |
| Bukaj08890x5be7…1b1d | No | 3,189 | 94.0¢ | $3.13K | Positive+$1.97 per $100 · 244 bets |
| zthunderfury0xc682…17bb | No | 3,111 | 94.0¢ | $3.05K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 497 bets |
| mm4ker0x8c57…f939 | No | 2,874 | 87.0¢ | $2.82K | Proven+$4.56 per $100 · 367 bets |
| Atsegine0xf44d…cc17 | No | 2,160 | 97.6¢ | $2.12K | — |
| Manzana6980x4727…5aa5 | No | 2,105 | 95.0¢ | $2.06K | New55 settled bets |
| Marc3450x0911…6594 | No | 2,105 | 95.0¢ | $2.06K | New9 settled bets |
| ULYSSES180x9ef5…5d4f | No | 1,947 | 98.0¢ | $1.91K | Break-even+$0.29 per $100 · 342 bets |
| fourofakind0x18e1…a55a | No | 1,529 | 98.7¢ | $1.5K | — |
| tl2000x2dc6…cf37 | No | 1,000 | 98.1¢ | $980 | New41 settled bets |
| momo5130xcdf8…b8ea | No | 1,000 | 95.9¢ | $980 | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 704 bets |
| DorkiPorki0x9fc0…cb4b | No | 906 | 96.2¢ | $888 | — |
| charlatta0xb7b8…db31 | No | 800 | 96.7¢ | $784 | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 305 bets |
| -teapot-0xb037…500d | No | 760 | 98.7¢ | $744 | — |
| CP-directional0x07e1…27af | No | 717 | 97.6¢ | $703 | Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 141 bets |
| BeneGesseritVoice0xcb59…0a22 | No | 705 | 93.0¢ | $691 | Proven+$2.38 per $100 · 2,191 bets |
| blackjackquad0xa5da…b241 | No | 702 | 98.6¢ | $688 | — |
| Shijiebeiii0xbb59…6ca3 | No | 650 | 93.0¢ | $637 | — |
| TheRealWarMonger0xe472…e7eb | No | 500 | 98.1¢ | $490 | Break-even−$0.18 per $100 · 699 bets |
| 0xf2b0…b26b | No | 500 | 97.7¢ | $490 | — |
| Gyoo0x2ed6…b0b3 | No | 500 | 97.7¢ | $490 | — |
| nchgbhy0x57b0…76f4 | No | 490 | 96.3¢ | $481 | Proven+$2.09 per $100 · 2,943 bets |
| Dellabc10x97cb…c910 | Yes | 23,573 | 2.5¢ | $471 | — |
| grustniyTanec0x5d14…f8bd | No | 453 | 96.3¢ | $444 | — |
| Kawabanga250x5715…1616 | Yes | 21,224 | 1.7¢ | $424 | — |
| Pantheon10x606e…6b3a | No | 419 | 95.0¢ | $411 | — |
| ninesquare0xf119…4c6e | No | 412 | 98.6¢ | $404 | — |
| Dreamer3bcbcd6c0xd280…82b3 | No | 400 | 97.6¢ | $392 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 7,524 bets |
| Yoyoyoyo230x7b66…3a93 | Yes | 17,000 | 2.1¢ | $340 | — |
| donateck0x10af…de20 | Yes | 16,168 | 1.8¢ | $323 | — |
| sqsb0x3abd…2c6a | Yes | 15,796 | 2.2¢ | $316 | — |
| Jean-Claude3220x2dca…4bc5 | No | 308 | 97.4¢ | $302 | Break-even−$0.70 per $100 · 988 bets |
| Aragorn-II0xc9ad…79d0 | No | 300 | 89.0¢ | $294 | — |
| 0x3e59…b2be | Yes | 14,170 | 1.8¢ | $283 | Losing−$22.45 per $100 · 1,060 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 263 | 95.9¢ | $258 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,920 bets |
| 0xc3db…0f98 | Yes | 11,287 | 6.0¢ | $226 | Positive+$12.78 per $100 · 405 bets |
| ED999990xdf17…97d1 | No | 219 | 96.4¢ | $214 | Proven+$3.46 per $100 · 1,712 bets |
| MEPP0x6d9f…9790 | Yes | 10,000 | 2.9¢ | $200 | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 1,289 bets |
| Martin660x3acc…06a3 | No | 200 | 97.8¢ | $196 | — |
| Rolocex0x4e8b…1ea1 | No | 200 | 93.5¢ | $196 | Break-even+$0.31 per $100 · 661 bets |
| Robbb0x9cdd…3e97 | No | 200 | 95.0¢ | $196 | Proven+$5.15 per $100 · 4,527 bets |
| Porx0xa0bc…d428 | No | 200 | 94.0¢ | $196 | Proven+$7.70 per $100 · 3,050 bets |
| PutsOnPeace0x635d…5025 | No | 200 | 88.0¢ | $196 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 2,042 bets |
| ethBELIVER0x05f6…25a1 | Yes | 9,326 | 6.0¢ | $187 | New55 settled bets |
| powerfulshrimp0xa92a…a4d8 | No | 183 | 98.1¢ | $180 | Break-even+$0.27 per $100 · 145 bets |
| 0xc6c5…6f9c | Yes | 8,655 | 3.5¢ | $173 | — |
| CaptainCoinflip0xb8fe…ce76 | Yes | 8,100 | 1.8¢ | $162 | Proven+$3.95 per $100 · 743 bets |
| Pakun0x0ffb…7236 | No | 160 | 95.0¢ | $157 | — |
| HMRevenueandCustoms0x0d05…6a81 | Yes | 7,821 | 2.1¢ | $156 | — |
| DAMAE0x93af…94d7 | No | 155 | 98.6¢ | $152 | — |
| vbcbf6460xfb78…d3a2 | No | 146 | 98.4¢ | $143 | — |
| 0x63c0…28e6 | Yes | 7,000 | 2.8¢ | $140 | — |
| hfghrt0xbe59…ce02 | No | 124 | 98.2¢ | $122 | — |
| sdfw332f0xe4ac…5348 | No | 123 | 98.3¢ | $121 | — |
| 0xaf5b…fb1d | Yes | 5,755 | 1.7¢ | $115 | — |
| jhnytfhtbhf0x7a7e…3ade | No | 117 | 98.5¢ | $114 | — |
| Nightingale0x183f…6fdf | No | 115 | 98.3¢ | $113 | — |
| zikit20x2c05…4a54 | Yes | 4,631 | 6.6¢ | $93 | — |
| mebad0x04dc…1c45 | Yes | 4,214 | 7.0¢ | $84 | New7 settled bets |
| XgangX0xd87d…52f9 | Yes | 3,926 | 1.5¢ | $79 | — |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | Yes | 3,054 | 4.0¢ | $61 | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,389 bets |
| Perypery0x0a7a…df1b | Yes | 2,411 | 2.7¢ | $48 | Positive+$11.88 per $100 · 5,339 bets |
| Iagreeto0xe6f8…15ec | Yes | 2,222 | 2.7¢ | $44 | — |
| Saltyballs0xd46b…5dab | Yes | 2,148 | 2.3¢ | $43 | Proven+$7.59 per $100 · 920 bets |
| 0xb2df…6d30 | Yes | 2,105 | 1.9¢ | $42 | — |
| ClearMove0xd7f1…73cd | Yes | 1,960 | 2.0¢ | $39 | Positive+$12.07 per $100 · 1,186 bets |
| Fdavid0x8471…db7d | Yes | 1,867 | 5.6¢ | $37 | — |
| Zizigooloo0x0bd2…9637 | Yes | 1,853 | 2.1¢ | $37 | — |
| ShoudaCouda0xbb65…172c | Yes | 1,808 | 1.8¢ | $36 | — |
| SaturnStormCube0xad52…11ac | Yes | 1,500 | 1.8¢ | $30 | Proven+$5.83 per $100 · 3,598 bets |
| iuH1398SI0x44b7…2e99 | Yes | 1,376 | 2.9¢ | $28 | Losing−$4.93 per $100 · 738 bets |
| 0x7272…a67d | Yes | 1,000 | 6.0¢ | $20 | New73 settled bets |
| Tanjiro.Kamado0x9d77…cf31 | Yes | 1,000 | 2.1¢ | $20 | — |
| PapaFernandMayembo210x333a…bd76 | Yes | 860 | 1.7¢ | $17 | — |
| newnewuser0x1dd1…a156 | Yes | 741 | 10.0¢ | $15 | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 737 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 600 | 2.9¢ | $12 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| adrenvl220xade3…3b44 | Yes | 500 | 5.0¢ | $10 | — |
| autisem0xea41…1c98 | Yes | 500 | 5.0¢ | $10 | — |
| PaddyAlpha0x9ad0…bf3d | Yes | 420 | 4.4¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 3,059 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 411 | 4.5¢ | $8 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0x5449…992b | Yes | 406 | 2.6¢ | $8 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 6,692 bets |
| ScienceDog0xc369…4e87 | Yes | 400 | 3.5¢ | $8 | — |
| f8j38mr0x8425…168a | Yes | 400 | 2.6¢ | $8 | — |
| trullq0x3ecd…b65d | Yes | 313 | 1.6¢ | $6 | — |
| A.D.0xc8b8…c770 | Yes | 300 | 1.9¢ | $6 | — |
| 46318743680xdfb0…d1dd | Yes | 250 | 6.0¢ | $5 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 177 | 3.3¢ | $4 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 122,985 bets |
| josephHFT0x0eef…02c0 | Yes | 172 | 2.9¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x062c…24d5 | Yes | 150 | 1.6¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 116 | 2.4¢ | $2 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,033 bets |
| FernandoNascimento310x0422…1284 | Yes | 108 | 11.1¢ | $2 | — |
| Dima790xdd5a…4d23 | Yes | 106 | 6.6¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.95 per $100 · 443 bets |
| Rowbeee0xf76c…6f18 | Yes | 100 | 1.5¢ | $2 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.