Market · 1 of 2 outcomes
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 11:18 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
9 proven traders are on Yes, 10 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valen90x162f…798d | No | 31,245 | 69.5¢ | $22.3K | Proven+$2.48 per $100 · 882 bets |
| cambridgeisaac0xb51b…b4d9 | No | 7,897 | 77.2¢ | $5.65K | Proven+$2.35 per $100 · 2,451 bets |
| Raskell0xb37a…f1b1 | No | 6,168 | 77.3¢ | $4.41K | — |
| 0x4135…e462 | Yes | 11,747 | 30.5¢ | $3.35K | — |
| DonJoey10xff91…a1ed | Yes | 10,549 | 28.4¢ | $3.01K | — |
| Hossein-m0xd726…b5c9 | Yes | 8,000 | 37.6¢ | $2.28K | — |
| tr10000x8a8b…375c | No | 2,135 | 77.2¢ | $1.53K | Losing−$2.06 per $100 · 6,303 bets |
| Beyonddream0xb24c…eefe | No | 2,050 | 72.5¢ | $1.47K | Break-even−$0.68 per $100 · 503 bets |
| 0x6e37…2849 | Yes | 5,140 | 30.7¢ | $1.46K | — |
| 0xb223…156b | Yes | 4,900 | 30.0¢ | $1.4K | — |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | No | 1,850 | 70.7¢ | $1.32K | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
| 0805260x9ad7…4084 | No | 1,606 | 76.3¢ | $1.15K | — |
| OneLastHurrah0x7803…9e91 | No | 1,589 | 72.0¢ | $1.14K | Losing−$5.07 per $100 · 741 bets |
| DerDon0xf797…0bf2 | Yes | 3,924 | 21.6¢ | $1.12K | Proven+$4.32 per $100 · 4,225 bets |
| RdogTest0x9908…062c | No | 1,312 | 73.0¢ | $938 | — |
| controls0x165e…f5aa | No | 1,233 | 75.0¢ | $882 | — |
| neetbets0x4526…7a45 | No | 1,000 | 71.5¢ | $715 | Proven+$4.13 per $100 · 1,269 bets |
| deltasniper0x0826…0b32 | No | 1,000 | 59.0¢ | $715 | Losing−$1.42 per $100 · 494 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 1,000 | 73.0¢ | $715 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | No | 998 | 76.0¢ | $714 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 19,896 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 954 | 75.8¢ | $682 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,736 bets |
| BikesAreTheBikes0x215a…254c | No | 931 | 68.1¢ | $665 | Positive+$6.62 per $100 · 6,737 bets |
| prophet-spaces0x2dd2…d5d8 | No | 881 | 76.8¢ | $630 | New83 settled bets |
| 0x7494…e2a3 | Yes | 2,077 | 30.8¢ | $592 | — |
| Trumpchi0xf7b3…eeb2 | No | 800 | 74.8¢ | $572 | Break-even+$0.93 per $100 · 472 bets |
| Frezhboiimatt0x767a…6e8c | No | 724 | 76.0¢ | $517 | — |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | Yes | 1,654 | 16.7¢ | $471 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| Myway0x52f9…e1c7 | Yes | 1,590 | 31.4¢ | $453 | Proven+$8.03 per $100 · 313 bets |
| Mikelious0xdf90…5637 | Yes | 1,456 | 34.2¢ | $415 | — |
| M-Bet0xbff6…5cb2 | Yes | 1,415 | 19.2¢ | $403 | — |
| KakiBatusik0x371c…c236 | Yes | 1,358 | 23.4¢ | $387 | Proven+$3.58 per $100 · 937 bets |
| nmnr0xcb86…feda | No | 521 | 73.7¢ | $373 | — |
| Dondigidin0x07b9…0fbb | No | 500 | 77.4¢ | $358 | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 991 bets |
| nellojello0xa8ae…8eb7 | No | 500 | 74.2¢ | $358 | Proven+$10.19 per $100 · 305 bets |
| 0x6ead…14f8 | No | 495 | 69.0¢ | $354 | Positive+$6.58 per $100 · 200 bets |
| Huludubu0xe738…df65 | Yes | 1,215 | 25.0¢ | $346 | Break-even+$0.43 per $100 · 2,529 bets |
| paddaa0x60a9…5a71 | Yes | 1,097 | 25.4¢ | $313 | Proven+$5.21 per $100 · 2,232 bets |
| Konfucious0xac76…9359 | No | 426 | 72.0¢ | $305 | — |
| Frieren680x9e45…3662 | No | 411 | 73.0¢ | $294 | — |
| PMplayer0x174b…5a55 | Yes | 1,000 | 25.2¢ | $285 | Losing−$17.89 per $100 · 173 bets |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | Yes | 950 | 32.9¢ | $271 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| 0xdb9a…6e8b | Yes | 794 | 35.0¢ | $226 | — |
| Brookzabo0xca44…450a | Yes | 762 | 32.8¢ | $217 | New32 settled bets |
| 0opj4kuu4xb20x3500…07f0 | No | 280 | 75.6¢ | $200 | Losing−$12.60 per $100 · 4,915 bets |
| whichtopick0x6098…c419 | Yes | 678 | 29.8¢ | $193 | Losing−$11.44 per $100 · 108 bets |
| Mustafalafel0x8c0b…f0fb | Yes | 500 | 28.0¢ | $143 | Proven+$9.94 per $100 · 497 bets |
| Arif6680x121d…832a | Yes | 450 | 50.0¢ | $128 | — |
| 0xb502…30b9 | Yes | 435 | 23.0¢ | $124 | — |
| Crayon0xc95c…5e0b | No | 170 | 75.8¢ | $122 | — |
| purify0xeb28…3694 | Yes | 384 | 25.0¢ | $109 | — |
| NOIZYUV0x30db…33c0 | Yes | 380 | 35.8¢ | $108 | Positive+$3.04 per $100 · 277 bets |
| danikonsens0x51a2…051b | Yes | 365 | 56.8¢ | $104 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 142 | 76.6¢ | $102 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| data-sync0x21ad…10d2 | No | 132 | 76.0¢ | $94 | New43 settled bets |
| Bravo4140xcd96…9ee4 | Yes | 328 | 24.4¢ | $93 | Proven+$10.64 per $100 · 153 bets |
| mhh0x557e…5007 | Yes | 300 | 42.6¢ | $85 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 300 | 28.1¢ | $85 | Proven+$3.96 per $100 · 66,052 bets |
| 0xOTd0x79a8…bb66 | No | 115 | 78.0¢ | $82 | Break-even−$0.07 per $100 · 541 bets |
| rocky420130xf971…0a57 | Yes | 280 | 30.9¢ | $80 | — |
| ourdemocracy0x08c9…a2ef | No | 100 | 56.0¢ | $72 | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 577 bets |
| 0x2db7…8f9b | No | 100 | 64.0¢ | $72 | Proven+$8.35 per $100 · 335 bets |
| lisa670x5768…08fd | No | 100 | 72.0¢ | $72 | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 158 bets |
| Jet90x8705…8354 | No | 100 | 76.0¢ | $72 | Proven+$8.39 per $100 · 490 bets |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | No | 100 | 77.0¢ | $72 | — |
| Zizigooloo0x0bd2…9637 | Yes | 250 | 24.0¢ | $71 | New28 settled bets |
| Dima790xdd5a…4d23 | Yes | 239 | 41.9¢ | $68 | Positive+$1.95 per $100 · 443 bets |
| GoodLuck0x5065…fdbb | Yes | 221 | 22.6¢ | $63 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 329 bets |
| Nadmi0xe154…0b7f | Yes | 212 | 31.0¢ | $60 | Positive+$11.65 per $100 · 5,809 bets |
| CassianAndor0x4169…fc04 | Yes | 208 | 24.0¢ | $59 | — |
| RogerFed0xe958…66b7 | No | 83 | 71.0¢ | $59 | — |
| meagainsttheworld0x9592…a7b8 | Yes | 200 | 28.0¢ | $57 | Proven+$8.59 per $100 · 1,238 bets |
| IP13800x96e8…d240 | Yes | 200 | 25.5¢ | $57 | — |
| 0xf4d9…22e4 | Yes | 200 | 28.5¢ | $57 | — |
| Fleeze990xfb36…29ef | Yes | 200 | 21.5¢ | $57 | — |
| AlphaGooo0xfc55…b21d | Yes | 200 | 31.0¢ | $57 | — |
| Donaldtrumpp0x7e96…f109 | No | 70 | 71.0¢ | $50 | — |
| 0x6a96…69de | Yes | 166 | 27.0¢ | $47 | — |
| goldfinch-cz0xd7a4…8229 | Yes | 160 | 25.0¢ | $46 | — |
| apoosh0xb010…2930 | Yes | 156 | 25.6¢ | $45 | — |
| 0x7f6d…f6f6 | No | 61 | 76.5¢ | $44 | Proven+$2.28 per $100 · 273 bets |
| qqqppp20250x2899…6ee3 | No | 59 | 68.5¢ | $42 | — |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 58 | 75.0¢ | $41 | Losing−$7.36 per $100 · 1,391 bets |
| 0xa957…50e4 | Yes | 144 | 27.0¢ | $41 | New18 settled bets |
| notsure1230x87fc…1515 | Yes | 144 | 41.8¢ | $41 | — |
| PBH0xe24a…07db | No | 57 | 72.0¢ | $41 | — |
| Luciwini0x5549…f0fa | Yes | 141 | 25.5¢ | $40 | New35 settled bets |
| 0x3c34…3d3e | Yes | 136 | 47.4¢ | $39 | New23 settled bets |
| soul9625330x980e…9ce0 | Yes | 132 | 25.0¢ | $38 | — |
| psk6660x61af…c770 | No | 51 | 68.0¢ | $37 | — |
| stu0x84b0…5bc8 | No | 50 | 66.0¢ | $36 | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 113 bets |
| Hermnann0x3285…f63d | Yes | 125 | 24.0¢ | $36 | — |
| User-Name180x0202…55b0 | Yes | 122 | 65.6¢ | $35 | — |
| tinman20x9bae…5d34 | No | 45 | 65.0¢ | $32 | — |
| DooBieZ0xdb40…3612 | No | 40 | 69.0¢ | $29 | Break-even+$0.59 per $100 · 8,086 bets |
| KariSpice0x08ab…3af9 | Yes | 100 | 24.9¢ | $28 | Proven+$2.59 per $100 · 586 bets |
| jc70x8a95…a40a | No | 32 | 78.0¢ | $23 | — |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | No | 30 | 72.0¢ | $21 | Losing−$3.30 per $100 · 5,059 bets |
| DrShredz0x0f38…e56c | No | 25 | 68.0¢ | $18 | Losing−$1.40 per $100 · 617 bets |
| S8880x0711…f03c | No | 20 | 73.0¢ | $14 | Proven+$9.11 per $100 · 9,042 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.