Market · 2 of 2 outcomes
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 08:09 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
6 proven traders are on Yes, 5 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 37,327 | 88.1¢ | $33.2K | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,398 bets |
| Warren-Buffett0x4478…02a4 | Yes | 20,000 | 13.1¢ | $2.2K | Proven+$3.05 per $100 · 1,767 bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | No | 2,001 | 90.0¢ | $1.78K | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,285 bets |
| 0xe41a…29bd | No | 2,000 | 90.0¢ | $1.78K | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 108 bets |
| HuskyRRRRR0xe13a…ee7a | No | 1,395 | 90.9¢ | $1.24K | — |
| Croc780x24be…44cb | Yes | 11,239 | 8.4¢ | $1.24K | New9 settled bets |
| baybug0xfb66…5e13 | No | 448 | 88.1¢ | $399 | — |
| Hakei.0x97ea…3363 | Yes | 3,382 | 12.0¢ | $372 | Proven+$4.64 per $100 · 2,040 bets |
| Slowroasted0xc30c…6509 | No | 331 | 88.9¢ | $295 | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 5,633 bets |
| TronOG0x77c3…00c8 | No | 300 | 83.0¢ | $267 | Proven+$3.07 per $100 · 406 bets |
| Brookzabo0xca44…450a | Yes | 1,743 | 11.5¢ | $192 | New32 settled bets |
| kohalacoastgabe0x63e3…f341 | Yes | 1,548 | 12.9¢ | $170 | Losing−$5.29 per $100 · 292 bets |
| Idapro5550xc97f…b64e | No | 181 | 87.6¢ | $161 | — |
| Xendo10x9078…26af | Yes | 1,381 | 12.3¢ | $152 | Proven+$14.04 per $100 · 191 bets |
| 0xd53e…0b73 | No | 159 | 90.0¢ | $142 | — |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No | 150 | 90.0¢ | $134 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 575 bets |
| garbagefriends0xc5bd…ceaa | No | 147 | 90.4¢ | $131 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 1,711 bets |
| aviato0x2a01…6397 | No | 139 | 86.0¢ | $123 | Positive+$1.04 per $100 · 3,741 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 133 | 85.7¢ | $119 | Break-even−$0.76 per $100 · 88,011+ bets · updating |
| Crayon0xc95c…5e0b | No | 120 | 89.9¢ | $107 | — |
| 0x9f4c…14dd | Yes | 964 | 14.1¢ | $106 | New75 settled bets |
| BetzimSheli0x9687…2f43 | Yes | 833 | 12.0¢ | $92 | — |
| Avitz330x7a90…2ff9 | Yes | 794 | 7.0¢ | $87 | Proven+$13.31 per $100 · 1,257 bets |
| EasyGoingA0xc390…2a1f | Yes | 793 | 10.5¢ | $87 | Proven+$13.15 per $100 · 320 bets |
| VortexBet0x107f…bb8c | No | 81 | 89.7¢ | $72 | Break-even+$0.46 per $100 · 7,979 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 76 | 88.7¢ | $68 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,079 bets |
| ED999990xdf17…97d1 | No | 70 | 89.0¢ | $62 | Proven+$3.47 per $100 · 1,719 bets |
| FishermansFiend0x3a59…6c6f | No | 69 | 90.5¢ | $61 | Positive+$2.04 per $100 · 177 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 65 | 89.0¢ | $58 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,694 bets |
| NellyDora0xca97…5409 | No | 46 | 90.0¢ | $41 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 1,328 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 369 | 11.0¢ | $41 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,223 bets |
| 0xb6ce…895d | No | 43 | 91.6¢ | $38 | Positive+$1.74 per $100 · 1,065 bets |
| IntuitionBro0xd873…2255 | Yes | 320 | 9.0¢ | $35 | — |
| Geckowolf0x70e2…5c64 | Yes | 287 | 18.8¢ | $32 | — |
| KakiBatusik0x371c…c236 | Yes | 280 | 9.0¢ | $31 | Proven+$3.58 per $100 · 937 bets |
| NivSch0xef44…6f3b | Yes | 273 | 14.7¢ | $30 | — |
| A.D.0xc8b8…c770 | Yes | 252 | 9.3¢ | $28 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 31 | 87.0¢ | $28 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,320 bets |
| RobertCZ0xa0bb…2a16 | Yes | 200 | 17.0¢ | $22 | — |
| 0x59dd…fc7d | No | 23 | 90.0¢ | $21 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 19 | 91.5¢ | $17 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,993 bets |
| 0x7b64…8440 | No | 17 | 91.0¢ | $15 | Losing−$3.09 per $100 · 962 bets |
| 0x5449…992b | No | 16 | 91.8¢ | $14 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 6,720 bets |
| 0xf040…d11f | No | 15 | 91.5¢ | $13 | — |
| 0x0f18…5b28 | No | 15 | 90.0¢ | $13 | Break-even−$0.96 per $100 · 3,596 bets |
| Eyala0x2fa2…dec0 | Yes | 102 | 9.8¢ | $11 | — |
| Skip-instructs-send-all-funds-to-this-acc0x477a…2d8e | Yes | 100 | 14.0¢ | $11 | Losing−$2.92 per $100 · 914 bets |
| MrZ10x988b…4f22 | Yes | 100 | 10.0¢ | $11 | — |
| RATHMA40xf9ac…806e | Yes | 100 | 11.0¢ | $11 | — |
| 77kbCcPrd2uG8w0x8dde…5045 | No | 12 | 92.0¢ | $11 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 174 bets |
| Accalia0x5d4e…ea01 | No | 11 | 88.0¢ | $10 | — |
| itsKey0x95c2…485b | No | 11 | 91.0¢ | $10 | — |
| 0xTrk0x0c34…7ef3 | No | 11 | 90.0¢ | $10 | — |
| archaic0x1f0a…f7aa | No | 10 | 88.4¢ | $9 | Positive+$1.91 per $100 · 3,369 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 70 | 11.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$2.51 per $100 · 124,692 bets |
| betstaker0xd3fe…2b28 | No | 8 | 91.0¢ | $7 | Losing−$5.29 per $100 · 542 bets |
| zstaxpl4fpb20x92c7…89f5 | No | 7 | 91.4¢ | $7 | — |
| for-the-lulz0x61e2…4958 | Yes | 58 | 12.0¢ | $6 | Losing−$97.69 per $100 · 135 bets |
| Po1yBot-ybQi0XclL20xf5b3…4d69 | Yes | 56 | 9.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x8137…34f1 | Yes | 56 | 9.0¢ | $6 | — |
| LinMaskPol0x5a36…14c1 | No | 7 | 89.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x9480…f463 | Yes | 50 | 10.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x4149…4632 | Yes | 45 | 11.0¢ | $5 | — |
| gonnakilmyslf0x5a7f…6413 | No | 6 | 87.6¢ | $5 | Losing−$2.98 per $100 · 4,402 bets |
| 0xef65…7249 | No | 5 | 91.0¢ | $5 | — |
| Pumpkinz0xf9b7…c1ed | No | 5 | 92.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x63e9…ba4a | Yes | 43 | 7.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 5-testfollower-car0x3be5…f7fe | No | 5 | 91.8¢ | $4 | Break-even−$0.95 per $100 · 817 bets |
| 0x10fb…0aa1 | No | 5 | 92.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 25jbdgwo0x9f91…9828 | No | 5 | 85.0¢ | $4 | — |
| MagicTouch0070xacec…a74a | Yes | 38 | 13.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x3885…77ab | No | 5 | 90.7¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x3d03…9d52 | No | 4 | 91.5¢ | $4 | Break-even−$0.11 per $100 · 1,102 bets |
| 0x99af…dea2 | Yes | 36 | 14.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x3284…4722 | Yes | 33 | 12.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x9df8…a2f0 | Yes | 33 | 15.4¢ | $4 | — |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | No | 4 | 90.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| Penforde0xd992…f20b | No | 4 | 91.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 09F911029D740x4247…455f | No | 4 | 61.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Oakcroft0x73b7…af71 | No | 4 | 91.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Bramleigh0x7649…e594 | No | 4 | 91.0¢ | $3 | — |
| KreoAnon0xe9ce…711f | No | 3 | 91.0¢ | $3 | — |
| patysaurus0xb1b7…0373 | Yes | 20 | 14.8¢ | $2 | — |
| sallyruthstruik0x3a91…a770 | Yes | 18 | 13.0¢ | $2 | — |
| foshizzleshindig0x7cf1…14dc | Yes | 12 | 16.6¢ | $1 | — |
| g4z3ll30x2fa8…4359 | Yes | 12 | 15.1¢ | $1 | — |
| ManAreBrave0x58c6…d759 | Yes | 10 | 10.0¢ | $1 | New73 settled bets |
| 0x49c4…db5b | Yes | 9 | 10.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.56 per $100 · 10,587 bets |
| 0x703b…2320 | Yes | 9 | 11.5¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xbd21…82ec | Yes | 8 | 12.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Petty.Bourgeoise0x0a79…1cd5 | Yes | 8 | 13.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$5.50 per $100 · 146 bets |
| 0x720c…8909 | Yes | 7 | 14.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x4fbc…a244 | Yes | 7 | 15.1¢ | $1 | Losing−$12.25 per $100 · 167 bets |
| 0x4e11…aac4 | Yes | 6 | 15.5¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xc9bc…b22b | Yes | 6 | 16.0¢ | $1 | — |
| po-ly28-test-user60x53f8…5ce0 | Yes | 5 | 8.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.20 per $100 · 536 bets |
| 0xb4f6…eada | Yes | 1 | 9.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 79fsdfs0x2564…f258 | Yes | 0 | 10.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$3.57 per $100 · 2,473 bets |
| jdkfbsbdskjbfjksq0xb119…680b | Yes | 0 | 13.0¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 10.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 73,733 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.