Market · 2 of 6 outcomes
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before June 30, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 04:07 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 1,008 | 28.3¢ | $448 | Losing−$6.87 per $100 · 49,874+ bets · updating |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 142 | 64.0¢ | $79 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 123,024+ bets · updating |
| Valiv0x1fb2…a893 | No | 115 | 57.0¢ | $64 | — |
| WarriorH0xeed8…35f0 | No | 104 | 73.0¢ | $58 | Positive+$3.65 per $100 · 14,505 bets |
| gfdgfvfvssdd0x84bb…1477 | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $56 | — |
| dsds10xc85d…18b2 | No | 100 | 70.0¢ | $56 | Break-even+$0.92 per $100 · 120 bets |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | No | 80 | 72.0¢ | $44 | Losing−$3.71 per $100 · 4,954 bets |
| lolzzzlol0x7b25…e4be | No | 71 | 74.5¢ | $39 | — |
| Laribobibo0x721a…9295 | No | 63 | 73.0¢ | $35 | — |
| foxy40x40ca…a96d | No | 60 | 73.0¢ | $33 | — |
| POB-T0x41e6…66b7 | No | 60 | 73.0¢ | $33 | — |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | No | 50 | 55.0¢ | $28 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | No | 50 | 56.0¢ | $28 | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 3,292 bets |
| 0x7c14…5783 | No | 20 | 47.0¢ | $11 | — |
| SaraDuterte0x23cc…4f5a | No | 20 | 73.5¢ | $11 | Break-even−$0.17 per $100 · 13,909 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 22 | 44.0¢ | $10 | — |
| Klabautermann20xcb0d…23b5 | No | 9 | 57.0¢ | $5 | — |
| SwamiRama0xb187…615f | Yes | 8 | 26.1¢ | $4 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 7 | 35.9¢ | $3 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.