Market

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 18:56 UTC. Not financial advice.

Market

Chance of Yes

None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.

Proven traders, money on each side

11 proven traders are on Yes, 10 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.

Top holders after netting each trader's Yes shares against their No shares
Trader	Side	Shares	Bought at	Worth now	Record
VelvetNova270xf53e…16e3	No	1,052,874	78.4¢	$1M	New0 settled bets
TahitiBob0xe609…d4d4	No	1,034,215	86.0¢	$982K	New

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.

Decided by: The market resolves "Yes" if H.R.3633 is passed by both chambers of Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.§1
Other reporting: Other credible reporting may be used.§3
Counted: Passage by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signing into law of H.R.3633.§1
Source: Congress.gov's legislation tracker for H.R.3633, plus other official U.S. government information.§3
Closes: Jan 1, 2027 · 05:00 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 18:56 UTC. Not financial advice.