Market · 4 of 16 outcomes
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 19:52 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Alex de Minaur, 5 on Karen Khachanov. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbc43…96d3 | Alex de Minaur | 20,010 | 54.0¢ | $10.9K | Break-even+$0.23 per $100 · 774 bets |
| nigiri990xdc41…dd7e | Karen Khachanov | 11,491 | 47.3¢ | $5.23K | Losing−$2.89 per $100 · 32,447 bets |
| Bagwell3060x9c76…c926 | Karen Khachanov | 7,500 | 47.2¢ | $3.41K | Proven+$2.30 per $100 · 20,165 bets |
| 0x5c54…f1d2 | Karen Khachanov | 3,261 | 50.0¢ | $1.48K | Proven+$4.64 per $100 · 18,038 bets |
| 0xdeff…78f8 | Alex de Minaur | 1,818 | 55.2¢ | $991 | Losing−$2.32 per $100 · 772 bets |
| ggrrb0x9a01…24d0 | Alex de Minaur | 1,000 | 55.2¢ | $545 | Positive+$8.14 per $100 · 456 bets |
| 0x3c9a…d6db | Alex de Minaur | 455 | 50.0¢ | $248 | — |
| 0x3d5a…a0be | Alex de Minaur | 455 | 50.0¢ | $248 | Proven+$12.58 per $100 · 205 bets |
| 0xbedb…c818 | Karen Khachanov | 543 | 47.2¢ | $247 | Proven+$15.77 per $100 · 250 bets |
| NM-P0xcf73…0215 | Karen Khachanov | 542 | 46.0¢ | $246 | Break-even+$0.12 per $100 · 62,113 bets |
| caspar12480xa278…3369 | Alex de Minaur | 302 | 55.6¢ | $164 | — |
| Po1yamory0x5628…abbc | Karen Khachanov | 351 | 45.5¢ | $160 | Break-even−$0.40 per $100 · 29,533 bets |
| hex3d0xc5ff…abd0 | Karen Khachanov | 333 | 46.3¢ | $152 | — |
| itsmee0xda21…8646 | Karen Khachanov | 326 | 47.2¢ | $148 | — |
| GC-P0x2d6a…8add | Karen Khachanov | 262 | 46.0¢ | $119 | Break-even+$0.23 per $100 · 62,276 bets |
| VeryLucky8880x6d3c…d294 | Karen Khachanov | 256 | 45.0¢ | $117 | Break-even+$0.44 per $100 · 130,874+ bets · updating |
| 0x3265…bd34 | Alex de Minaur | 184 | 50.0¢ | $100 | — |
| 0x56c2…1b44 | Alex de Minaur | 182 | 50.0¢ | $99 | — |
| ximba0x7bef…6453 | Karen Khachanov | 217 | 47.2¢ | $99 | — |
| Melon910x0b5e…61b4 | Karen Khachanov | 213 | 48.2¢ | $97 | Losing−$6.01 per $100 · 1,004 bets |
| paulaoofc0xa772…8686 | Alex de Minaur | 172 | 58.2¢ | $94 | — |
| 387918739841890x0d2d…7ff5 | Karen Khachanov | 200 | 46.0¢ | $91 | Break-even+$0.66 per $100 · 36,281+ bets · updating |
| 0x805c…63b7 | Alex de Minaur | 165 | 57.9¢ | $90 | — |
| soliquido0x1fb4…c2c4 | Karen Khachanov | 160 | 48.2¢ | $73 | — |
| lbtrading0xa6db…3155 | Karen Khachanov | 150 | 43.0¢ | $68 | Break-even−$0.22 per $100 · 30,044+ bets · updating |
| 0xa132…6655 | Karen Khachanov | 138 | 50.0¢ | $63 | — |
| 0xc593…2885 | Alex de Minaur | 109 | 50.0¢ | $59 | — |
| 0x9e3e…f882 | Karen Khachanov | 126 | 47.2¢ | $57 | Losing−$9.60 per $100 · 56,831+ bets · updating |
| LeLynxMalynx0x200f…7a96 | Karen Khachanov | 124 | 43.8¢ | $57 | Break-even+$0.69 per $100 · 58,311+ bets · updating |
| 0xd89e…62e0 | Alex de Minaur | 101 | 50.0¢ | $55 | — |
| Stark220x0cb1…5286 | Alex de Minaur | 100 | 58.2¢ | $55 | Losing−$2.11 per $100 · 1,060 bets |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Karen Khachanov | 118 | 48.1¢ | $54 | Losing−$2.72 per $100 · 78,097+ bets · updating |
| 0x0743…120f | Alex de Minaur | 91 | 50.0¢ | $50 | — |
| 0x5aff…74bf | Alex de Minaur | 91 | 50.0¢ | $50 | — |
| asajon770xa9c4…b7c3 | Alex de Minaur | 90 | 54.0¢ | $49 | — |
| 0xfffc…d552 | Alex de Minaur | 85 | 50.0¢ | $47 | — |
| 0x7d0e…4f01 | Karen Khachanov | 100 | 46.0¢ | $46 | Break-even−$0.36 per $100 · 23,978 bets |
| 0x4442…0efb | Alex de Minaur | 80 | 50.0¢ | $44 | — |
| TE21370x6a80…d472 | Alex de Minaur | 75 | 53.0¢ | $41 | — |
| 0xfa4e…9e69 | Alex de Minaur | 73 | 50.0¢ | $40 | — |
| drex0o0x3d4c…67bc | Karen Khachanov | 87 | 47.2¢ | $40 | — |
| barabarabara0xa4de…672a | Karen Khachanov | 85 | 47.2¢ | $39 | — |
| 0xaf5d…d909 | Alex de Minaur | 67 | 50.0¢ | $37 | — |
| 0x7c58…8fb9 | Alex de Minaur | 64 | 50.0¢ | $35 | — |
| omnibus-076daa0x076d…8d4c | Karen Khachanov | 68 | 47.2¢ | $31 | Proven+$5.33 per $100 · 57,123 bets |
| 0xa1fd…4ab3 | Alex de Minaur | 55 | 56.2¢ | $30 | — |
| 0x8d79…6afc | Alex de Minaur | 55 | 50.0¢ | $30 | — |
| 0xde2e…02d6 | Alex de Minaur | 51 | 50.0¢ | $28 | — |
| Lilybaeum0x01c7…e995 | Karen Khachanov | 60 | 43.2¢ | $28 | Proven+$2.33 per $100 · 49,933 bets |
| plague88880xbd70…ade3 | Alex de Minaur | 50 | 53.0¢ | $27 | — |
| 0x4830…a59d | Alex de Minaur | 48 | 55.2¢ | $26 | — |
| cryptocactus0x2bef…f80a | Alex de Minaur | 48 | 55.8¢ | $26 | — |
| 0x4c92…0ced | Alex de Minaur | 45 | 50.0¢ | $25 | — |
| 0x7e23…1e10 | Alex de Minaur | 45 | 50.0¢ | $25 | — |
| brkalpha0x37a2…775d | Karen Khachanov | 54 | 47.2¢ | $25 | — |
| 0x19af…2747 | Alex de Minaur | 44 | 50.0¢ | $24 | — |
| 0xa703…4d4f | Alex de Minaur | 44 | 50.0¢ | $24 | — |
| 0x042d…0b81 | Alex de Minaur | 41 | 54.0¢ | $22 | — |
| 0xb3ba…de31 | Alex de Minaur | 36 | 50.0¢ | $20 | — |
| oracle910xbebf…9bae | Alex de Minaur | 36 | 56.2¢ | $20 | — |
| Tubal0x89b1…799a | Karen Khachanov | 43 | 47.2¢ | $20 | — |
| 0x1279…7bc7 | Karen Khachanov | 43 | 48.5¢ | $19 | — |
| PhoenixDrifter0xab12…3bd6 | Karen Khachanov | 43 | 48.2¢ | $19 | — |
| vozduhair0xfc4b…c865 | Alex de Minaur | 36 | 56.2¢ | $19 | — |
| 0x8b89…98d6 | Karen Khachanov | 42 | 50.0¢ | $19 | — |
| 0x2926…db98 | Alex de Minaur | 34 | 50.0¢ | $19 | — |
| Jobli0xe773…e1b0 | Alex de Minaur | 34 | 59.2¢ | $19 | — |
| Cavernicolo0xeed3…039b | Alex de Minaur | 30 | 56.2¢ | $16 | — |
| clownly0x7547…d158 | Karen Khachanov | 34 | 42.0¢ | $15 | — |
| 0x89e7…cebe | Alex de Minaur | 27 | 50.0¢ | $15 | — |
| 0x92ed…c155 | Alex de Minaur | 27 | 50.0¢ | $15 | — |
| HevWei0xbe16…d380 | Alex de Minaur | 27 | 57.2¢ | $15 | — |
| ethlayermaxim0xad10…c665 | Karen Khachanov | 32 | 48.2¢ | $15 | — |
| KaiMy0x9bc0…9556 | Alex de Minaur | 26 | 57.2¢ | $14 | — |
| 0x1697…ef7e | Alex de Minaur | 26 | 50.0¢ | $14 | — |
| 0x841d…75c3 | Alex de Minaur | 26 | 50.0¢ | $14 | — |
| jmp1230x147c…2540 | Alex de Minaur | 23 | 56.0¢ | $13 | Break-even+$0.38 per $100 · 22,745 bets |
| 0xaced…e4b8 | Alex de Minaur | 22 | 53.0¢ | $12 | — |
| FraneSelak0x35e7…8331 | Karen Khachanov | 25 | 46.0¢ | $11 | — |
| moneypoli0xf2da…9385 | Alex de Minaur | 20 | 56.2¢ | $11 | — |
| scottatp20xda80…53d7 | Karen Khachanov | 23 | 46.0¢ | $10 | — |
| Gondolala0xf339…fc0c | Karen Khachanov | 23 | 45.2¢ | $10 | — |
| guonri0xef80…7edf | Karen Khachanov | 22 | 46.0¢ | $10 | — |
| Kazacugambler390x37b0…799f | Karen Khachanov | 17 | 47.2¢ | $8 | Losing−$3.17 per $100 · 7,668 bets |
| 12186436100xcb08…86d8 | Karen Khachanov | 16 | 47.2¢ | $7 | — |
| iWasEnough0x2160…4c78 | Karen Khachanov | 10 | 47.5¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.66 per $100 · 8,204 bets |
| congmqian-gendan0x9e16…7a42 | Karen Khachanov | 5 | 47.2¢ | $2 | — |
| ameisgoat110x2da3…f258 | Karen Khachanov | 5 | 46.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.73 per $100 · 42,480 bets |
| Req90x4384…62c5 | Karen Khachanov | 5 | 47.2¢ | $2 | — |
| FranxTY0x5550…0d07 | Karen Khachanov | 5 | 47.2¢ | $2 | — |
| kogurt0x701a…2cfb | Karen Khachanov | 5 | 46.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xfe1b…3e4b | Karen Khachanov | 3 | 50.0¢ | $2 | — |
| antec0x8935…7daa | Karen Khachanov | 2 | 45.2¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.12 per $100 · 77,724+ bets · updating |
| 0xeb3d…d8a2 | Karen Khachanov | 2 | 47.2¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xa0e0…0fcb | Karen Khachanov | 1 | 48.5¢ | $1 | — |
| clb-q0x801e…71b4 | Alex de Minaur | 0 | 55.2¢ | $0 | — |
| cryptoqan0n0xcc78…d202 | Karen Khachanov | 0 | 47.2¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Alex de Minaur minus Karen Khachanov for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.