Market · 12 of 16 outcomes
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 19:33 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Arthur Gea, 3 on Jakub Mensik. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fastball670x45e4…7e20 | Arthur Gea | 15,746 | 39.3¢ | $6.38K | Losing−$7.82 per $100 · 372 bets |
| Cuco840xf3b0…23a1 | Jakub Mensik | 8,475 | 60.2¢ | $5.04K | — |
| VeryLucky8880x6d3c…d294 | Jakub Mensik | 6,270 | 62.1¢ | $3.73K | Break-even+$0.44 per $100 · 130,874+ bets · updating |
| Stickman220xb9ab…f282 | Arthur Gea | 4,331 | 40.8¢ | $1.75K | Proven+$2.45 per $100 · 4,652 bets |
| 0xb4f9…c9a7 | Jakub Mensik | 2,638 | 60.2¢ | $1.57K | Break-even−$0.81 per $100 · 653 bets |
| Flaznorp0x821d…cf16 | Jakub Mensik | 1,971 | 61.0¢ | $1.17K | Break-even+$0.90 per $100 · 155,914+ bets · updating |
| geraldo7770xe53b…a526 | Arthur Gea | 2,531 | 41.7¢ | $1.03K | — |
| 0x1861…408d | Jakub Mensik | 1,344 | 60.6¢ | $800 | — |
| ggrrb0x9a01…24d0 | Jakub Mensik | 1,000 | 61.2¢ | $595 | Positive+$8.14 per $100 · 456 bets |
| Gl4d0x1e3a…9e14 | Jakub Mensik | 998 | 60.0¢ | $594 | Positive+$1.33 per $100 · 2,434 bets |
| NM-P0xcf73…0215 | Arthur Gea | 1,441 | 41.0¢ | $584 | Break-even+$0.12 per $100 · 62,113 bets |
| GC-P0x2d6a…8add | Arthur Gea | 930 | 41.0¢ | $377 | Break-even+$0.23 per $100 · 62,276 bets |
| testyeagles0xaaca…f5d5 | Jakub Mensik | 581 | 60.0¢ | $346 | Losing−$1.58 per $100 · 17,528 bets |
| 387918739841890x0d2d…7ff5 | Jakub Mensik | 555 | 61.6¢ | $330 | Break-even+$0.66 per $100 · 36,281+ bets · updating |
| tennis4tw0x521c…f4aa | Jakub Mensik | 508 | 60.2¢ | $303 | — |
| 0x1ba7…67a1 | Jakub Mensik | 480 | 50.0¢ | $286 | Losing−$5.84 per $100 · 1,794 bets |
| caspar12480xa278…3369 | Jakub Mensik | 437 | 60.2¢ | $260 | — |
| MacroStratFirm0xe090…727f | Jakub Mensik | 424 | 60.2¢ | $252 | — |
| Po1yamory0x5628…abbc | Jakub Mensik | 400 | 61.2¢ | $238 | Break-even−$0.40 per $100 · 29,533 bets |
| TheodoreDoesntPlay0xa292…7025 | Arthur Gea | 579 | 41.0¢ | $234 | — |
| 0x99f0…9495 | Arthur Gea | 549 | 40.0¢ | $222 | Break-even+$0.48 per $100 · 35,659 bets |
| 0x5c54…f1d2 | Arthur Gea | 523 | 50.0¢ | $212 | Proven+$4.64 per $100 · 18,038 bets |
| 0x9438…e019 | Arthur Gea | 500 | 41.0¢ | $203 | — |
| omnibus-076daa0x076d…8d4c | Jakub Mensik | 228 | 62.2¢ | $136 | Proven+$5.33 per $100 · 57,123 bets |
| MeistersApprenticeship0xdc4f…9804 | Jakub Mensik | 225 | 59.0¢ | $134 | — |
| 0x04a0…a986 | Jakub Mensik | 222 | 60.2¢ | $132 | — |
| paulaoofc0xa772…8686 | Arthur Gea | 255 | 39.2¢ | $103 | — |
| obedm0x5159…736d | Jakub Mensik | 164 | 62.2¢ | $98 | — |
| GeorgeFuhrer0xd8a0…2c5a | Jakub Mensik | 162 | 60.2¢ | $96 | — |
| lbtrading0xa6db…3155 | Jakub Mensik | 150 | 60.0¢ | $89 | Break-even−$0.22 per $100 · 30,044+ bets · updating |
| Melon910x0b5e…61b4 | Arthur Gea | 214 | 43.2¢ | $87 | Losing−$6.01 per $100 · 1,004 bets |
| rayvanmechelen0xcc37…c4ea | Jakub Mensik | 140 | 59.0¢ | $83 | Proven+$5.63 per $100 · 2,339 bets |
| 0x7d0e…4f01 | Arthur Gea | 200 | 40.5¢ | $81 | Break-even−$0.36 per $100 · 23,978 bets |
| ZetaKappaEpsilon0xf9dc…aba7 | Jakub Mensik | 116 | 61.0¢ | $69 | — |
| TuttyFruity0x49b6…d152 | Jakub Mensik | 111 | 61.0¢ | $66 | — |
| Danshan110x36b3…e421 | Jakub Mensik | 100 | 62.2¢ | $59 | Losing−$3.04 per $100 · 10,537 bets |
| drex0o0x3d4c…67bc | Jakub Mensik | 97 | 63.2¢ | $58 | — |
| ahms0x3e6b…8a98 | Arthur Gea | 117 | 40.0¢ | $47 | Break-even−$0.60 per $100 · 27,520 bets |
| q-v30xb040…2f3a | Jakub Mensik | 70 | 60.2¢ | $42 | — |
| antec0x8935…7daa | Arthur Gea | 100 | 40.0¢ | $41 | Break-even−$0.12 per $100 · 77,724+ bets · updating |
| derty230xf66d…c570 | Jakub Mensik | 60 | 63.2¢ | $36 | — |
| gordonwrong0x46f8…68cc | Arthur Gea | 83 | 41.0¢ | $34 | — |
| 0x48jd0ql531a6k7y4z0x0a7c…8964 | Arthur Gea | 77 | 39.0¢ | $31 | — |
| Eulhunter0x98db…dd17 | Jakub Mensik | 50 | 59.0¢ | $30 | Positive+$1.14 per $100 · 24,466 bets |
| StupidGamble0xec6d…5050 | Jakub Mensik | 50 | 63.2¢ | $30 | — |
| capitalpiston20x5e02…b178 | Arthur Gea | 66 | 40.0¢ | $27 | Proven+$3.24 per $100 · 7,170 bets |
| 0x8b89…98d6 | Jakub Mensik | 42 | 50.0¢ | $25 | — |
| 0xe9b1…f626 | Arthur Gea | 57 | 43.6¢ | $23 | — |
| umalytic0x7ed9…fc5e | Jakub Mensik | 36 | 61.2¢ | $22 | — |
| -Prediqa0xfc24…d399 | Jakub Mensik | 35 | 60.0¢ | $21 | — |
| 0xa697…59d5 | Arthur Gea | 50 | 41.0¢ | $20 | Positive+$1.04 per $100 · 46,326 bets |
| 0x397c…6bb2 | Jakub Mensik | 32 | 61.8¢ | $19 | — |
| cryptoqan0n0xcc78…d202 | Jakub Mensik | 32 | 62.2¢ | $19 | — |
| 0xff77…1be5 | Jakub Mensik | 29 | 62.7¢ | $17 | — |
| ethlayermaxim0xad10…c665 | Jakub Mensik | 25 | 60.2¢ | $15 | — |
| bonjourneedahug0xaf83…2852 | Jakub Mensik | 25 | 60.2¢ | $15 | — |
| 0xabae…e55d | Jakub Mensik | 25 | 50.0¢ | $15 | — |
| TheRomanProcurator0x3e1a…4d5c | Jakub Mensik | 25 | 62.2¢ | $15 | Break-even+$0.76 per $100 · 13,728 bets |
| iluvsportslol234340x8345…d5e0 | Jakub Mensik | 23 | 60.2¢ | $14 | Proven+$8.68 per $100 · 238 bets |
| LitquidPM0xf8c8…7c4c | Arthur Gea | 30 | 41.0¢ | $12 | — |
| topdogbigboi0x5d40…ba95 | Jakub Mensik | 20 | 61.0¢ | $12 | Losing−$1.98 per $100 · 35,437 bets |
| moneypoli0xf2da…9385 | Jakub Mensik | 20 | 61.2¢ | $12 | — |
| 0x8c99…ebdc | Arthur Gea | 29 | 43.2¢ | $12 | — |
| 0x29a8…05d2 | Jakub Mensik | 19 | 60.2¢ | $11 | — |
| scottatp20xda80…53d7 | Arthur Gea | 27 | 39.4¢ | $11 | — |
| 0xb224…dfa6 | Jakub Mensik | 17 | 61.0¢ | $10 | — |
| pirate060x091a…8287 | Arthur Gea | 24 | 41.2¢ | $10 | — |
| Flipso0070x05c5…8181 | Jakub Mensik | 16 | 62.2¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x8ee8…b335 | Arthur Gea | 23 | 50.0¢ | $9 | — |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Arthur Gea | 18 | 43.2¢ | $7 | Losing−$2.72 per $100 · 78,097+ bets · updating |
| jmp1230x147c…2540 | Jakub Mensik | 9 | 62.0¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.38 per $100 · 22,745 bets |
| oracle910xbebf…9bae | Arthur Gea | 13 | 40.2¢ | $5 | — |
| olivzer0xf429…79a4 | Arthur Gea | 12 | 42.2¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x3340…13c8 | Arthur Gea | 12 | 42.2¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xb4b5…1bd4 | Arthur Gea | 12 | 43.4¢ | $5 | Losing−$10.78 per $100 · 1,476 bets |
| 0x4830…a59d | Arthur Gea | 10 | 43.2¢ | $4 | — |
| FraneSelak0x35e7…8331 | Arthur Gea | 7 | 39.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x62e3…9696 | Arthur Gea | 7 | 43.4¢ | $3 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 1,917 bets |
| grandeYdesagradable0x2a0f…06fd | Arthur Gea | 6 | 41.2¢ | $2 | — |
| TennisUnder0xe5a2…5f4c | Arthur Gea | 5 | 39.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xa0e0…0fcb | Arthur Gea | 3 | 43.4¢ | $1 | — |
| Valouass0x6e36…5374 | Arthur Gea | 3 | 41.2¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.67 per $100 · 1,644 bets |
Shares = Arthur Gea minus Jakub Mensik for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.