Market · 1 of 16 outcomes
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 22:20 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
5 proven traders are on Yes, 7 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ED999990xdf17…97d1 | No | 11,610 | 85.8¢ | $9.81K | Proven+$3.46 per $100 · 1,712 bets |
| skibabiba0x79d9…baec | No | 6,000 | 89.0¢ | $5.07K | Proven+$2.37 per $100 · 116 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 5,945 | 39.7¢ | $5.02K | Proven+$3.50 per $100 · 13,216 bets |
| ImJustKen0x9d84…1344 | Yes | 10,329 | 10.0¢ | $1.6K | Proven+$2.12 per $100 · 17,781 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 1,701 | 88.2¢ | $1.44K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| ivantoney0x2616…c6aa | Yes | 6,437 | 52.9¢ | $998 | New13 settled bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 1,038 | 39.3¢ | $877 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,032 bets |
| MisTKy0x35bb…009b | No | 1,013 | 83.5¢ | $856 | Positive+$1.10 per $100 · 1,166 bets |
| Debosnys0x7e30…1e50 | No | 763 | 85.1¢ | $644 | Break-even+$0.18 per $100 · 3,054 bets |
| cambridgeisaac0xb51b…b4d9 | Yes | 3,600 | 63.9¢ | $558 | Proven+$2.35 per $100 · 2,451 bets |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | No | 600 | 86.7¢ | $507 | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
| steevo0x0437…30f4 | No | 577 | 87.0¢ | $487 | — |
| Drunken-Mentat0x588c…1bf4 | No | 510 | 73.0¢ | $431 | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 676 bets |
| 0x7a63…f706 | Yes | 2,344 | 12.8¢ | $363 | — |
| tja0xe1b3…1426 | No | 418 | 86.0¢ | $353 | Proven+$10.80 per $100 · 1,660 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 366 | 86.1¢ | $309 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| Djibooty0x9690…f2d5 | No | 350 | 89.0¢ | $296 | — |
| Ololo350x9d3f…53a6 | No | 350 | 89.0¢ | $296 | — |
| 0x598e…9d4f | No | 342 | 87.7¢ | $289 | New95 settled bets |
| yen4u0xf0d5…c665 | No | 328 | 87.5¢ | $277 | Losing−$5.26 per $100 · 1,977 bets |
| PMTraderAdam0x1547…d066 | No | 313 | 90.0¢ | $264 | — |
| gueyshh0xd2d7…adde | No | 305 | 70.0¢ | $258 | — |
| rthaseas0x1111…f642 | No | 288 | 70.0¢ | $243 | — |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No | 288 | 86.7¢ | $243 | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,952 bets |
| vnjmfcgd0x55c5…4829 | No | 266 | 70.0¢ | $225 | — |
| doubleone20xff91…ab3a | No | 264 | 86.5¢ | $223 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 833 bets |
| ClearMove0xd7f1…73cd | Yes | 1,200 | 11.2¢ | $186 | Positive+$12.07 per $100 · 1,186 bets |
| PolyJaguar0xc18b…3917 | Yes | 1,110 | 13.8¢ | $172 | Positive+$11.33 per $100 · 989 bets |
| DegenerateJanet0x8964…0bec | No | 200 | 87.0¢ | $169 | Positive+$1.91 per $100 · 666 bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | Yes | 1,000 | 33.0¢ | $155 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| NTYLD0x5a33…7302 | Yes | 992 | 36.7¢ | $154 | — |
| webot-ai0xc2a5…0ce9 | No | 162 | 27.1¢ | $137 | New25 settled bets |
| tryjsefs0xa6e8…8ced | Yes | 859 | 30.0¢ | $133 | — |
| brickbybr1ck0x66e0…5a7d | No | 150 | 85.7¢ | $127 | — |
| MAGALICIOUS0xac58…dff5 | No | 134 | 89.0¢ | $113 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 662 | 15.0¢ | $103 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| 0x5039…946d | Yes | 600 | 56.0¢ | $93 | Break-even−$0.70 per $100 · 587 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 101 | 86.0¢ | $86 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,913 bets |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 100 | 90.0¢ | $85 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 871 bets |
| wasabeej0x8b02…b95f | No | 100 | 90.0¢ | $85 | — |
| Abladollosac0x3e98…5389 | No | 98 | 86.4¢ | $83 | — |
| 0xfe5b…babf | No | 97 | 88.0¢ | $82 | — |
| moneymakingmachine0x420e…e3c9 | No | 94 | 86.9¢ | $80 | Losing−$3.29 per $100 · 1,690 bets |
| gesoos0x8f78…1141 | Yes | 500 | 14.8¢ | $78 | — |
| Embole0xc37d…96cb | No | 91 | 86.1¢ | $77 | — |
| rgess0x2c7a…6875 | Yes | 489 | 32.6¢ | $76 | — |
| 1014560x8de0…7f22 | No | 68 | 42.0¢ | $57 | Proven+$14.85 per $100 · 244 bets |
| Fullvie0x6286…f59c | Yes | 346 | 22.3¢ | $54 | — |
| 0xa2b7…efee | Yes | 333 | 9.0¢ | $52 | — |
| JoeMama4Evah0x82ca…44c8 | No | 58 | 89.0¢ | $49 | — |
| memorymaker20490x9259…c2d3 | No | 55 | 57.3¢ | $46 | — |
| cd30gfu530p00xfd5a…aa7a | No | 50 | 87.9¢ | $42 | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 1,176 bets |
| PaddyAlpha0x9ad0…bf3d | Yes | 258 | 12.8¢ | $40 | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 3,059 bets |
| fiter0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | 250 | 11.4¢ | $39 | Positive+$43.18 per $100 · 2,767 bets |
| 0x3ad1…b4c5 | No | 45 | 52.5¢ | $38 | — |
| Ogre-Magi0x99f0…649f | No | 42 | 86.2¢ | $36 | — |
| noam56780xb593…1dca | Yes | 200 | 25.0¢ | $31 | — |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 200 | 38.0¢ | $31 | Positive+$1.44 per $100 · 5,411 bets |
| gonnakilmyslf0x5a7f…6413 | No | 30 | 88.0¢ | $25 | — |
| BaruchGuilty0xb3be…1015 | No | 30 | 56.8¢ | $25 | — |
| aybigspender0xe3c5…a0f3 | Yes | 156 | 32.0¢ | $24 | — |
| 0xf85f…9800 | Yes | 155 | 11.0¢ | $24 | Break-even+$0.53 per $100 · 919 bets |
| huntss0x1252…42c4 | Yes | 152 | 14.0¢ | $24 | — |
| Destinybeats0xa230…1cdb | Yes | 150 | 48.0¢ | $23 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 149 | 14.6¢ | $23 | Losing−$2.85 per $100 · 108,352+ bets · updating |
| johnnath12220x4b28…15df | No | 27 | 65.8¢ | $23 | — |
| 0x5449…992b | No | 25 | 79.8¢ | $21 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 6,692 bets |
| OzBilu0xcc3e…633c | Yes | 130 | 10.0¢ | $20 | — |
| siick0xf9b7…60a4 | Yes | 129 | 54.0¢ | $20 | Proven+$3.60 per $100 · 1,967 bets |
| geonb0x7558…970a | No | 24 | 85.0¢ | $20 | — |
| ApollowVL0xe128…ccb4 | Yes | 121 | 14.0¢ | $19 | — |
| 0xddb5…9d52 | Yes | 121 | 82.5¢ | $19 | — |
| Praescientia0x94bb…c320 | Yes | 119 | 48.4¢ | $18 | Break-even+$0.39 per $100 · 6,664 bets |
| BobbyBrant0x9028…8608 | No | 21 | 84.5¢ | $18 | — |
| bbb560x6000…cad5 | Yes | 111 | 9.0¢ | $17 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 111 | 19.1¢ | $17 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 126,571+ bets · updating |
| PBot-100x5d63…9075 | No | 20 | 85.0¢ | $17 | — |
| 0x1307…5b63 | Yes | 100 | 11.0¢ | $16 | — |
| MinasTirith0x2782…0f94 | Yes | 100 | 80.0¢ | $16 | — |
| Started-with-20-USD0x4388…5050 | Yes | 100 | 44.0¢ | $16 | — |
| Safdar160x86f3…af44 | Yes | 100 | 12.0¢ | $16 | — |
| SenseiX0x7f70…fe56 | Yes | 90 | 22.0¢ | $14 | — |
| doronyos0x2281…06fd | Yes | 84 | 37.0¢ | $13 | — |
| VolynMolfar0x6c2a…b7b5 | Yes | 73 | 53.7¢ | $11 | — |
| 0xc48c…f469 | Yes | 67 | 15.0¢ | $10 | — |
| 0xd512…79b3 | Yes | 67 | 15.0¢ | $10 | — |
| DawnOfYemen0xc34a…6007 | Yes | 66 | 61.5¢ | $10 | Proven+$3.27 per $100 · 1,824 bets |
| Judea-Pearl0x4e94…d649 | Yes | 62 | 50.6¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 515 bets |
| Kimera-0xcc7c…4ce2 | Yes | 60 | 83.0¢ | $9 | — |
| S8880x0711…f03c | Yes | 59 | 23.2¢ | $9 | Proven+$9.13 per $100 · 9,031 bets |
| sanchez.0x74cf…4d07 | Yes | 56 | 9.0¢ | $9 | — |
| Dow-Jones0xc5a9…0c9a | Yes | 55 | 70.9¢ | $9 | — |
| hping020x9e25…afd6 | Yes | 51 | 15.9¢ | $8 | — |
| Noonoo1230x2f52…9fba | Yes | 50 | 48.5¢ | $8 | — |
| AltiGabi0x0d27…6e05 | Yes | 50 | 41.6¢ | $8 | — |
| smye1000xfb8e…3dc3 | Yes | 6 | 61.2¢ | $1 | Losing−$3.44 per $100 · 5,616 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.