Market · 1 of 5 outcomes
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 14:21 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 10 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| pako0x71ed…d338 | No | 8,852 | 65.4¢ | $8.42K | Proven+$3.00 per $100 · 454 bets |
| 456ythgbvcadscvb0xeb6f…25f0 | No | 3,831 | 91.7¢ | $3.64K | Positive+$1.24 per $100 · 1,517 bets |
| Magamyman0x4dfd…6e4a | No | 3,668 | 61.0¢ | $3.49K | Proven+$49.79 per $100 · 102 bets |
| jadebasilisk0x59db…c353 | No | 1,500 | 61.0¢ | $1.43K | Proven+$15.52 per $100 · 181 bets |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699 | No | 1,200 | 66.0¢ | $1.14K | Proven+$9.79 per $100 · 1,188 bets |
| 0xc636…5ef9 | No | 824 | 86.1¢ | $784 | New41 settled bets |
| podairpod0x2ed8…93d4 | No | 734 | 72.9¢ | $698 | Proven+$6.95 per $100 · 772 bets |
| singaporesling0xfa8f…d61b | Yes | 13,030 | 33.3¢ | $638 | Losing−$19.40 per $100 · 617 bets |
| Oskoreiter0x4518…1cac | No | 668 | 91.6¢ | $635 | — |
| MirAsifAhr0x9437…e75f | No | 619 | 86.2¢ | $589 | Break-even+$0.11 per $100 · 552 bets |
| 123pocky0x06b6…eba6 | No | 600 | 72.1¢ | $571 | Losing−$2.87 per $100 · 228 bets |
| 0xa894…53da | No | 512 | 58.6¢ | $487 | Proven+$9.34 per $100 · 181 bets |
| varch010x0362…449e | No | 500 | 90.0¢ | $476 | Losing−$1.95 per $100 · 13,127 bets |
| 0x40fb…3bd7 | No | 372 | 39.5¢ | $354 | New98 settled bets |
| 0x0363…cac1 | No | 332 | 65.1¢ | $316 | — |
| warptrading0x6f08…54d3 | No | 268 | 56.0¢ | $255 | Losing−$1.09 per $100 · 10,198 bets |
| Musk50x1229…df38 | No | 216 | 90.6¢ | $205 | Break-even+$0.48 per $100 · 494 bets |
| SmartBoyBilly0x1491…fd70 | No | 201 | 95.7¢ | $191 | Losing−$7.91 per $100 · 3,067 bets |
| 0x6c10…df5c | No | 200 | 91.6¢ | $190 | Losing−$7.13 per $100 · 1,041 bets |
| tttt1230xdf40…38b8 | No | 200 | 64.0¢ | $190 | Positive+$2.19 per $100 · 3,002 bets |
| 0xe987…b9c5 | No | 162 | 45.3¢ | $154 | — |
| 5atka0x1c26…6e31 | No | 154 | 38.0¢ | $146 | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 6,495 bets |
| Polyticks0xfdfc…288c | No | 126 | 44.0¢ | $120 | Proven+$3.94 per $100 · 139 bets |
| ernai0x32df…314e | No | 120 | 79.7¢ | $114 | — |
| degenlilcat0x2029…f60a | No | 110 | 91.2¢ | $105 | — |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | No | 105 | 92.1¢ | $100 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| melganis0x0bfb…26a7 | No | 100 | 83.0¢ | $95 | Proven+$4.74 per $100 · 2,886 bets |
| banhe0x6f63…5b31 | No | 100 | 90.9¢ | $95 | — |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 94 | 94.2¢ | $90 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 872 bets |
| ourdemocracy20xbdcb…e811 | No | 94 | 91.1¢ | $90 | Break-even+$0.15 per $100 · 569 bets |
| gummy-usb0xdf81…697d | Yes | 1,737 | 27.7¢ | $85 | — |
| CompulsiveGambler0xe0f1…c4bd | Yes | 1,635 | 10.5¢ | $80 | Proven+$5.10 per $100 · 1,724 bets |
| Tpezaske0xacb1…1b1d | Yes | 1,456 | 61.8¢ | $71 | New39 settled bets |
| diguan0x2a3b…a28f | No | 65 | 50.0¢ | $62 | — |
| MrDraco0x7b7a…5790 | Yes | 1,229 | 17.0¢ | $60 | New3 settled bets |
| stevenero0x76c7…de50 | No | 58 | 95.0¢ | $55 | — |
| chethyg0xe531…1808 | No | 57 | 94.8¢ | $55 | — |
| happshi-tens0x035e…086d | No | 56 | 94.7¢ | $53 | — |
| emrico0x6131…fd16 | Yes | 1,045 | 38.6¢ | $51 | New57 settled bets |
| ruthf3490xa0f1…ab0a | No | 54 | 94.6¢ | $51 | — |
| PMTraderAdam0x1547…d066 | No | 50 | 86.0¢ | $48 | Proven+$2.64 per $100 · 1,415 bets |
| EconProf0x2811…6818 | No | 42 | 95.3¢ | $40 | Positive+$1.77 per $100 · 519 bets |
| jacoboliver0x03ba…91c0 | Yes | 774 | 10.1¢ | $38 | New18 settled bets |
| 0x139e…4ce2 | No | 35 | 41.0¢ | $33 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 34 | 94.7¢ | $33 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 130,831 bets |
| voep0vkmgs9o0xb333…e295 | No | 28 | 43.0¢ | $27 | — |
| MrMarket0xf769…0114 | Yes | 538 | 42.9¢ | $26 | Break-even+$0.83 per $100 · 755 bets |
| fireponbabylon0xa667…84fe | No | 27 | 61.6¢ | $26 | Positive+$2.51 per $100 · 1,399 bets |
| jesus-rooster0x5c98…a58b | No | 24 | 42.0¢ | $23 | — |
| BetterFish0xc412…592d | Yes | 462 | 42.3¢ | $23 | — |
| Metusalem0xa65c…32fb | No | 23 | 86.1¢ | $22 | — |
| hr64Ft9gde0xfd0f…5277 | No | 23 | 42.0¢ | $22 | — |
| Whaddaheck0x5275…ea79 | Yes | 424 | 33.0¢ | $21 | — |
| 0x3d77…7786 | Yes | 422 | 42.4¢ | $21 | — |
| ljkilian0xe6b5…d5c6 | Yes | 408 | 10.5¢ | $20 | — |
| danduka0x238a…105f | Yes | 350 | 29.0¢ | $17 | New18 settled bets |
| 0x5925…b194 | Yes | 346 | 28.9¢ | $17 | New61 settled bets |
| PolyEGG0x60a8…7d37 | No | 17 | 85.8¢ | $16 | — |
| IbnKhaldun0xa4bc…026c | Yes | 289 | 29.0¢ | $14 | Positive+$2.23 per $100 · 341 bets |
| 0xf3fc…0426 | No | 13 | 76.9¢ | $13 | — |
| LBZero0xa9a1…c98a | Yes | 238 | 53.3¢ | $12 | Losing−$1.14 per $100 · 8,315 bets |
| SuSuDORIS0xfadb…5645 | Yes | 200 | 5.2¢ | $10 | — |
| S8880x0711…f03c | No | 10 | 49.0¢ | $10 | Proven+$9.11 per $100 · 9,042 bets |
| sludgelife0x11b9…d361 | No | 10 | 81.1¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.32 per $100 · 287 bets |
| 0x127a…3344 | No | 10 | 61.0¢ | $10 | — |
| VLamarca0xf6d6…f810 | No | 10 | 90.9¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.74 per $100 · 278 bets |
| Hugin-og-Munin0x8fe7…6c1f | Yes | 185 | 10.8¢ | $9 | Positive+$5.79 per $100 · 29,719+ bets · updating |
| BuFu0x90e2…1350 | Yes | 170 | 58.9¢ | $8 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 163 | 5.2¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,945 bets |
| 0x846a…8166 | Yes | 150 | 18.7¢ | $7 | — |
| 0x635a…9a4b | Yes | 129 | 42.0¢ | $6 | — |
| himken0x115a…9d44 | Yes | 120 | 6.3¢ | $6 | Losing−$6.27 per $100 · 2,058 bets |
| hangbc0xcfe5…3912 | Yes | 120 | 15.8¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x06a2…0acb | Yes | 100 | 51.0¢ | $5 | Positive+$62.80 per $100 · 626 bets |
| SugahSugieSuge0x6de8…80a2 | Yes | 100 | 42.0¢ | $5 | — |
| bitconnect0xed49…2511 | Yes | 100 | 50.0¢ | $5 | — |
| KingZeManel0x7bff…7cd6 | Yes | 100 | 58.0¢ | $5 | Break-even−$0.05 per $100 · 11,579 bets |
| 0xf52b…bdf5 | Yes | 97 | 41.2¢ | $5 | — |
| whumpa0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | 88 | 9.3¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x0218…41ae | Yes | 83 | 12.5¢ | $4 | New92 settled bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 65 | 5.2¢ | $3 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| etank0x7992…8af4 | Yes | 60 | 44.0¢ | $3 | — |
| lilye0x7e51…08ca | Yes | 60 | 44.0¢ | $3 | — |
| GUINESS1230x2f26…0d8f | Yes | 54 | 14.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$2.11 per $100 · 28,111 bets |
| ktv.020xeab5…f570 | No | 3 | 92.9¢ | $3 | — |
| Babs13370xe5d4…7656 | Yes | 50 | 26.0¢ | $2 | — |
| guife0x8f74…f100 | Yes | 45 | 44.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x941f…35c6 | Yes | 44 | 46.5¢ | $2 | — |
| Itami0x9180…fb11 | Yes | 42 | 44.5¢ | $2 | — |
| thisjustdoesntfeelright0x84a2…c7cf | Yes | 42 | 8.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0RockStar0x9c1e…302f | Yes | 42 | 12.6¢ | $2 | — |
| ZachInsider0x9b62…0b8d | Yes | 40 | 62.3¢ | $2 | — |
| i2dt0x5529…e5b9 | Yes | 40 | 59.5¢ | $2 | Proven+$3.88 per $100 · 2,171 bets |
| wallet-account-test0xcaff…e3ad | Yes | 38 | 5.1¢ | $2 | — |
| deckarddroid0xae58…666f | Yes | 35 | 26.0¢ | $2 | — |
| louj750180x480f…7c91 | Yes | 20 | 19.7¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.01 per $100 · 456 bets |
| BornAgain260x978e…80bc | Yes | 20 | 46.0¢ | $1 | — |
| koninginhetuniverse0xa579…aad0 | Yes | 20 | 23.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.28 per $100 · 2,329 bets |
| patysaurus0xb1b7…0373 | Yes | 20 | 11.5¢ | $1 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.