Market · 1 of 15 outcomes
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 20:43 UTC. Not financial advice.
Exactly one of this event's 15 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hippoka0xdd9c…31a0 | Yes | 5,270 | 4.6¢ | $3.56K | New77 settled bets |
| DancewithRisk0xb0fc…ce0b | Yes | 3,979 | 36.3¢ | $2.69K | — |
| ratehikes0xa309…4cf2 | Yes | 2,753 | 11.3¢ | $1.86K | New49 settled bets |
| 0xebab…cff5 | Yes | 2,000 | 51.5¢ | $1.35K | — |
| podairpod0x2ed8…93d4 | Yes | 1,825 | 44.7¢ | $1.23K | Proven+$6.95 per $100 · 772 bets |
| akimbogod0x6056…c27c | Yes | 1,187 | 58.1¢ | $803 | Proven+$8.97 per $100 · 148 bets |
| 0xf52b…bdf5 | Yes | 1,048 | 5.7¢ | $708 | — |
| tinman20x9bae…5d34 | Yes | 937 | 43.2¢ | $633 | — |
| tradingwhat0x4d5e…a877 | Yes | 801 | 45.5¢ | $541 | — |
| bomzh.kolyadun0xa916…c6a3 | Yes | 797 | 0.2¢ | $539 | — |
| 0x1d36…2a3b | Yes | 704 | 1.7¢ | $476 | — |
| Deadheadbucky0x68d9…00ed | Yes | 653 | 16.7¢ | $442 | — |
| puravida0x80a4…22cc | Yes | 587 | 54.2¢ | $397 | Proven+$2.23 per $100 · 2,750 bets |
| TENETENET0x3329…43a6 | Yes | 500 | 0.1¢ | $338 | Positive+$874.76 per $100 · 26,465 bets |
| howesr19700x4097…88f2 | Yes | 400 | 2.8¢ | $270 | — |
| JotaFoward0xe99f…7ce9 | Yes | 390 | 20.6¢ | $264 | — |
| OkaneKasegu0x5d74…ee45 | Yes | 381 | 2.6¢ | $258 | Positive+$1.35 per $100 · 710 bets |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 311 | 0.5¢ | $210 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| SC2610010xa2c0…cbe8 | Yes | 255 | 52.8¢ | $173 | — |
| 0x06d8…9446 | Yes | 150 | 2.1¢ | $101 | — |
| Bobothebear0x4c85…635c | No | 259 | 87.4¢ | $84 | Break-even+$0.82 per $100 · 184 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 232 | 35.9¢ | $75 | Losing−$2.54 per $100 · 124,233+ bets · updating |
| simpleman0xbe89…b88c | No | 224 | 47.0¢ | $73 | Proven+$2.51 per $100 · 1,506 bets |
| BornAgain260x978e…80bc | Yes | 105 | 59.6¢ | $71 | — |
| wozaitaibei0xdad7…005a | Yes | 95 | 14.7¢ | $64 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 90 | 18.8¢ | $61 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,956 bets |
| wtfsss0x472c…9c3d | Yes | 88 | 1.9¢ | $60 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 86 | 0.0¢ | $58 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,756 bets |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | No | 162 | 41.2¢ | $53 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 19,896 bets |
| 0xd0d9…30f2 | Yes | 75 | 32.3¢ | $51 | — |
| S8880x0711…f03c | Yes | 70 | 16.8¢ | $47 | Proven+$9.11 per $100 · 9,042 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 143 | 64.3¢ | $46 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,065 bets |
| zeitfi-vault-v20x6ae0…b747 | Yes | 60 | 38.2¢ | $41 | — |
| 88mnm880x3b1a…4221 | No | 110 | 97.4¢ | $36 | Break-even+$0.95 per $100 · 8,246 bets |
| tiancs0x8301…3bdc | Yes | 50 | 1.0¢ | $34 | — |
| haouibao0xa499…2a2b | Yes | 45 | 52.0¢ | $30 | — |
| human.bean0x39fd…849e | Yes | 43 | 3.6¢ | $29 | — |
| LBZbot20xdb6c…ee14 | Yes | 43 | 2.5¢ | $29 | — |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | Yes | 40 | 6.7¢ | $27 | — |
| michaelmunoz0x93bf…10a4 | No | 82 | 64.3¢ | $27 | — |
| gaskan0x4618…8d41 | Yes | 38 | 2.6¢ | $26 | — |
| GTOrski10xb3af…84fc | No | 75 | 89.1¢ | $24 | New31 settled bets |
| immanuelcan0x04b9…79e0 | No | 72 | 87.0¢ | $23 | Positive+$1.13 per $100 · 2,550 bets |
| HettieKali301200xc4b6…4dc1 | No | 72 | 97.6¢ | $23 | — |
| andreacarter0x73b7…f5e1 | No | 70 | 63.8¢ | $23 | — |
| EdwardLewis0xebc0…fa41 | Yes | 32 | 4.8¢ | $22 | Positive+$1.23 per $100 · 28,021 bets |
| forgetfuldory0xf1e1…6f6f | Yes | 31 | 28.1¢ | $21 | New6 settled bets |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | Yes | 31 | 46.0¢ | $21 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| gonnakilmyslf0x5a7f…6413 | Yes | 30 | 61.8¢ | $20 | Losing−$2.96 per $100 · 4,379 bets |
| daroghi0xf0b0…8cab | Yes | 30 | 6.2¢ | $20 | Break-even+$0.81 per $100 · 69,025+ bets · updating |
| quiddy0x5562…3b41 | Yes | 29 | 0.0¢ | $20 | — |
| 0x4b80…88c6 | Yes | 28 | 42.6¢ | $19 | — |
| 0xe682…fdf5 | Yes | 27 | 19.0¢ | $18 | — |
| quidy0x8538…ee29 | Yes | 27 | 0.0¢ | $18 | — |
| gamerdad.820xfdd6…ca6f | No | 52 | 96.1¢ | $17 | — |
| Alla-h0x6236…4558 | No | 51 | 96.9¢ | $17 | New63 settled bets |
| kellwill0x2055…aee1 | No | 51 | 97.2¢ | $17 | — |
| roserowerbrrr0xd652…fa8f | No | 51 | 97.7¢ | $17 | — |
| riplteams0x7635…9a34 | No | 50 | 95.6¢ | $16 | — |
| tugoserya0xaa63…1546 | No | 50 | 96.1¢ | $16 | — |
| hueplet2280xe015…c3b4 | No | 50 | 96.0¢ | $16 | — |
| new-account-test2220xfe91…4cd3 | Yes | 23 | 53.0¢ | $15 | — |
| hohorga0xa654…ec03 | No | 45 | 97.9¢ | $15 | — |
| 0xe004…7849 | Yes | 21 | 48.7¢ | $14 | — |
| triklozoid0xeab7…b389 | Yes | 15 | 0.1¢ | $10 | Positive+$2630.36 per $100 · 34,840 bets |
| WKBPAKA0xd295…d0d7 | Yes | 13 | 4.0¢ | $9 | — |
| flexer780x9422…f273 | No | 22 | 53.6¢ | $7 | — |
| 0x24ec…832f | Yes | 10 | 53.0¢ | $7 | — |
| 0xba2c…54d0 | Yes | 10 | 1.0¢ | $7 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 20 | 93.0¢ | $7 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,341 bets |
| KickstandBot0xca1f…d282 | No | 20 | 88.1¢ | $6 | — |
| Lavincey0x1cdd…e595 | No | 11 | 82.5¢ | $4 | Losing−$7.89 per $100 · 44,077+ bets · updating |
| auramaur0x377d…dddd | No | 10 | 84.0¢ | $3 | — |
| FlashTradeOracleTester0xa912…297f | No | 10 | 99.8¢ | $3 | — |
| krootz0x450e…4fdd | Yes | 5 | 71.0¢ | $3 | — |
| daniel1221340x09fe…76ee | No | 9 | 99.0¢ | $3 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| 0xa06e…d147 | No | 8 | 54.6¢ | $2 | — |
| 125-kooyanisqatsi0x4501…39d7 | No | 5 | 28.7¢ | $2 | — |
| TaylorBenjaminw0x351c…8cb0 | No | 4 | 99.6¢ | $1 | — |
| deSora0x6eae…1916 | No | 4 | 83.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$2.54 per $100 · 2,328 bets |
| wokerjoesleeper0x63d4…a2f1 | No | 2 | 98.7¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.35 per $100 · 44,557 bets |
| WhiteDaniel0x8819…07b0 | No | 2 | 99.5¢ | $1 | — |
| elderSay0x6cf1…2961 | No | 2 | 97.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Stovechurn0xe698…a6c9 | No | 2 | 97.3¢ | $1 | — |
| rated0xa3ad…6866 | No | 1 | 98.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.89 per $100 · 18,156 bets |
| Throwqd330x00a3…5655 | No | 1 | 97.8¢ | $0 | — |
| evidenceCanoe0x1b59…dccc | No | 1 | 97.3¢ | $0 | — |
| exactLadder0x34ff…3851 | No | 1 | 97.3¢ | $0 | — |
| Muscle-Family-Narrow0x3529…5067 | No | 1 | 97.7¢ | $0 | — |
| nothing-grunt-across0x5714…3288 | No | 1 | 97.8¢ | $0 | — |
| fault-core0x60ba…0112 | No | 1 | 97.8¢ | $0 | — |
| sock7340x7fae…c21c | No | 1 | 97.3¢ | $0 | — |
| Emotionax580x8c46…9c76 | No | 1 | 97.3¢ | $0 | — |
| Upsetgd140xb93e…3a14 | No | 1 | 97.8¢ | $0 | — |
| Steak.Genius.Spray0xd80c…45dd | No | 1 | 97.8¢ | $0 | — |
| LetTheGoodTimesRoll0x1408…b4f8 | No | 1 | 96.9¢ | $0 | — |
| oijfoijwoiroiwoirui20x7399…46d6 | No | 1 | 97.4¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.11 per $100 · 3,019 bets |
| 15rob0x2afd…deb4 | No | 1 | 82.1¢ | $0 | Proven+$2.28 per $100 · 9,823 bets |
| 0x2b73…174e | No | 1 | 50.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.