Market · 5 of 15 outcomes
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 22:15 UTC. Not financial advice.
Exactly one of this event's 15 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
5 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xebab…cff5 | No | 1,169 | 95.7¢ | $1.16K | — |
| GamblingEnjoyer0x55d8…0cf5 | No | 155 | 78.8¢ | $154 | Losing−$1.93 per $100 · 152 bets |
| 88mnm880x3b1a…4221 | No | 140 | 70.9¢ | $139 | Break-even+$0.95 per $100 · 8,246 bets |
| 0x5157…942b | No | 139 | 72.0¢ | $138 | — |
| Frank-Fly0x3db0…7f07 | No | 110 | 47.1¢ | $109 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 100 | 60.1¢ | $99 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| akimbogod0x6056…c27c | No | 98 | 48.2¢ | $97 | Proven+$8.97 per $100 · 148 bets |
| immanuelcan0x04b9…79e0 | No | 86 | 59.0¢ | $85 | Positive+$1.13 per $100 · 2,550 bets |
| strategy1.20xc6d0…4bad | Yes | 6,987 | 41.6¢ | $63 | New2 settled bets |
| Razirback0x92c7…c136 | No | 52 | 73.8¢ | $51 | Losing−$1.17 per $100 · 4,966 bets |
| simpleman0xbe89…b88c | No | 48 | 68.0¢ | $48 | Proven+$2.51 per $100 · 1,506 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 40 | 77.1¢ | $40 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,500 bets |
| hippoka0xdd9c…31a0 | Yes | 4,167 | 9.2¢ | $38 | New77 settled bets |
| p3eFbv0H3b0x0603…8f62 | No | 36 | 66.5¢ | $36 | — |
| carpe-noctem0x596a…7a0f | No | 26 | 92.0¢ | $25 | — |
| fed260xaf45…ec7d | Yes | 2,780 | 40.9¢ | $25 | New30 settled bets |
| FlashTradeOracleTester0xa912…297f | No | 23 | 91.9¢ | $23 | — |
| mcorleone0x9e7e…3e1d | Yes | 2,251 | 31.4¢ | $20 | — |
| TerranSupremacy0x4916…f56f | No | 15 | 66.8¢ | $15 | Positive+$4.59 per $100 · 8,855 bets |
| po-ly28-test-user60x53f8…5ce0 | No | 14 | 71.2¢ | $14 | Losing−$1.20 per $100 · 536 bets |
| rousseauuu0x47c1…825f | Yes | 1,443 | 17.7¢ | $13 | Positive+$16.32 per $100 · 485 bets |
| Ume-Chang0xae89…90b8 | Yes | 1,309 | 20.5¢ | $12 | Losing−$2.13 per $100 · 8,308 bets |
| apma-prdct0xe751…5a2a | No | 11 | 72.0¢ | $11 | — |
| summerttt0xa945…110f | No | 10 | 69.9¢ | $10 | — |
| daniel1221340x09fe…76ee | No | 9 | 86.1¢ | $9 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| auramaur0x377d…dddd | No | 8 | 69.7¢ | $8 | — |
| 125-kooyanisqatsi0x4501…39d7 | Yes | 859 | 6.1¢ | $8 | — |
| Deadheadbucky0x68d9…00ed | Yes | 849 | 34.2¢ | $8 | — |
| Beefie0xe6c9…947c | Yes | 500 | 40.0¢ | $5 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 492 | 0.0¢ | $4 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,777 bets |
| awgraewrfa0x699e…a7ec | Yes | 471 | 3.6¢ | $4 | New0 settled bets |
| korda770xa328…4977 | No | 4 | 92.0¢ | $4 | Positive+$6.73 per $100 · 43,120 bets |
| 0x96e2…1690 | Yes | 413 | 40.7¢ | $4 | — |
| DearMaria0xabaa…a174 | Yes | 349 | 47.6¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 348 | 15.9¢ | $3 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,067 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 286 | 7.3¢ | $3 | Losing−$2.52 per $100 · 124,382+ bets · updating |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 278 | 1.8¢ | $3 | — |
| crossFiter0x1284…3694 | Yes | 223 | 0.6¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.65 per $100 · 3,178 bets |
| products0x8575…87fe | No | 2 | 60.7¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.86 per $100 · 10,069 bets |
| 53asdad0x54c6…e5c2 | No | 2 | 70.1¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xf528…7e5b | No | 2 | 73.0¢ | $2 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 187 | 6.7¢ | $2 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,306 bets |
| 0x06d8…9446 | Yes | 150 | 26.2¢ | $1 | — |
| 74744886D1081ab236510E04c5b617b914A3Cef7.0x7474…cef7 | Yes | 150 | 0.6¢ | $1 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 132 | 5.2¢ | $1 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| Hummershark0x4087…ffd2 | Yes | 129 | 62.8¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x539b…c64f | No | 1 | 95.5¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.94 per $100 · 789 bets |
| 0xc422…ae44 | Yes | 122 | 59.4¢ | $1 | — |
| romanew-1-new0x7438…b741 | Yes | 109 | 7.7¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x3fbd…2d2d | Yes | 107 | 43.4¢ | $1 | — |
| tradingwhat0x4d5e…a877 | Yes | 101 | 5.2¢ | $1 | — |
| bulbnbob0x77b5…9170 | No | 1 | 66.5¢ | $1 | — |
| wozaitaibei0xdad7…005a | Yes | 95 | 30.9¢ | $1 | — |
| nada0xf4f3…330d | Yes | 95 | 55.6¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.70 per $100 · 198 bets |
| vamosgaming0x6cff…a463 | No | 1 | 99.3¢ | $1 | — |
| wtfsss0x472c…9c3d | Yes | 88 | 7.9¢ | $1 | — |
| toberich0x793c…e8da | No | 1 | 90.5¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xd0d9…30f2 | Yes | 75 | 4.4¢ | $1 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 67 | 21.7¢ | $1 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 63 | 7.7¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,987 bets |
| zeitfi-vault-v20x6ae0…b747 | Yes | 61 | 4.4¢ | $1 | — |
| BabyGroot0xbefa…300d | Yes | 59 | 40.8¢ | $1 | Positive+$12.22 per $100 · 3,936 bets |
| rated0xa3ad…6866 | No | 1 | 76.2¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.89 per $100 · 18,156 bets |
| human.bean0x39fd…849e | Yes | 54 | 3.6¢ | $0 | — |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | Yes | 53 | 0.8¢ | $0 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 19,896 bets |
| liuruijin0x88b3…bad4 | Yes | 50 | 33.3¢ | $0 | — |
| haouibao0xa499…2a2b | Yes | 45 | 1.6¢ | $0 | — |
| pm7777770xaedd…150c | No | 0 | 97.0¢ | $0 | — |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | Yes | 40 | 6.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd793…c80a | No | 0 | 73.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xeb9b…4549 | Yes | 34 | 31.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x000c…bcf3 | Yes | 33 | 32.9¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.39 per $100 · 409 bets |
| jjeeesusssus0x59fe…14fd | No | 0 | 67.4¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.62 per $100 · 20,907 bets |
| EdwardLewis0xebc0…fa41 | Yes | 32 | 4.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.23 per $100 · 28,021 bets |
| GTOrski10xb3af…84fc | Yes | 30 | 34.2¢ | $0 | New31 settled bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 30 | 10.8¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| 0xee57…50d1 | Yes | 29 | 34.7¢ | $0 | — |
| pd.unique0x27ab…e521 | No | 0 | 47.7¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.06 per $100 · 30,847 bets |
| puravida0x80a4…22cc | Yes | 26 | 41.3¢ | $0 | Proven+$2.23 per $100 · 2,750 bets |
| LetTheGoodTimesRoll0x1408…b4f8 | No | 0 | 70.1¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xad99…dbab | No | 0 | 72.8¢ | $0 | — |
| Tysha0x9be9…c030 | Yes | 25 | 3.9¢ | $0 | — |
| wokerjoesleeper0x63d4…a2f1 | Yes | 25 | 0.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.35 per $100 · 44,557 bets |
| 15rob0x2afd…deb4 | No | 0 | 57.1¢ | $0 | Proven+$2.28 per $100 · 9,823 bets |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | Yes | 20 | 3.9¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.81 per $100 · 18,336 bets |
| S8880x0711…f03c | Yes | 20 | 8.0¢ | $0 | Proven+$9.11 per $100 · 9,042 bets |
| Lavincey0x1cdd…e595 | No | 0 | 51.7¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.89 per $100 · 44,077+ bets · updating |
| PiEDawg0xcf43…b321 | No | 0 | 93.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$9.20 per $100 · 7,924 bets |
| JoE0x7740…cbcd | Yes | 6 | 6.7¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 11,334 bets |
| 0x99bc…4f35 | No | 0 | 56.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd717…3b85 | Yes | 3 | 6.7¢ | $0 | — |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | No | 0 | 75.8¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.72 per $100 · 78,097+ bets · updating |
| hall.in.ass0x6335…ca2b | No | 0 | 93.9¢ | $0 | — |
| nhadap0x4232…4159 | No | 0 | 75.8¢ | $0 | — |
| omnibus-6c8b150x6c8b…645c | No | 0 | 99.0¢ | $0 | Proven+$3.84 per $100 · 4,806 bets |
| acc420200xeab6…d4c6 | Yes | 1 | 32.2¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.