Market · 10 of 15 outcomes
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 06:50 UTC. Not financial advice.
Exactly one of this event's 15 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 40 | 97.9¢ | $40 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,334 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 34 | 99.8¢ | $34 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,934 bets |
| FlashTradeOracleTester0xa912…297f | No | 23 | 96.8¢ | $23 | — |
| 125-kooyanisqatsi0x4501…39d7 | Yes | 5,934 | 0.4¢ | $15 | — |
| daniel1221340x09fe…76ee | No | 9 | 98.0¢ | $9 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| fiter0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | 3,693 | 0.2¢ | $9 | Positive+$43.18 per $100 · 2,767 bets |
| xvsp0x20a3…29db | Yes | 3,439 | 0.8¢ | $9 | — |
| Supersegg0x60a4…378d | Yes | 1,985 | 0.4¢ | $5 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 1,195 | 0.3¢ | $3 | Positive+$7.11 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| 0x85be…fe8b | Yes | 1,140 | 0.5¢ | $3 | — |
| goldisoverrated0x1617…d790 | No | 2 | 99.3¢ | $2 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 3,857 bets |
| acc420200xeab6…d4c6 | Yes | 680 | 0.8¢ | $2 | — |
| thecaricature0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | 650 | 2.1¢ | $2 | — |
| wokerjoesleeper0x63d4…a2f1 | No | 1 | 97.9¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.48 per $100 · 31,278+ bets · updating |
| ICountElectricSheep0x0894…cf93 | Yes | 500 | 3.3¢ | $1 | — |
| awgraewrfa0x699e…a7ec | Yes | 471 | 3.6¢ | $1 | — |
| rated0xa3ad…6866 | No | 1 | 99.5¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.89 per $100 · 18,156 bets |
| 0x6841…6ebc | No | 1 | 95.9¢ | $1 | — |
| vamosgaming0x6cff…a463 | No | 1 | 99.8¢ | $1 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 332 | 6.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.70 per $100 · 123,093 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 301 | 6.7¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 244 | 6.7¢ | $1 | Positive+$3.81 per $100 · 101,137 bets |
| 0x1d36…2a3b | Yes | 214 | 0.9¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 207 | 5.3¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.95 per $100 · 66,044 bets |
| PolyJaguar0xc18b…3917 | Yes | 195 | 0.4¢ | $0 | Positive+$11.33 per $100 · 989 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 180 | 6.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.63 per $100 · 127,579 bets |
| MHD19970xfad4…a7f1 | Yes | 178 | 0.5¢ | $0 | — |
| RexScrat0x78b1…cf6a | Yes | 175 | 0.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x597f…702c | Yes | 167 | 0.6¢ | $0 | — |
| EirikL0xb834…7e1d | Yes | 167 | 0.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x06d8…9446 | Yes | 150 | 1.2¢ | $0 | — |
| Tiger880xa802…23df | Yes | 130 | 0.8¢ | $0 | — |
| andreaxbt0xa66b…20da | Yes | 126 | 0.8¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xc5d0…02c2 | Yes | 118 | 0.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xbbc0…10d2 | Yes | 114 | 0.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xe5ab…8b8d | Yes | 113 | 0.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x4773…0dde | Yes | 111 | 0.9¢ | $0 | — |
| BSS370x1e98…6345 | Yes | 100 | 0.3¢ | $0 | Positive+$4.13 per $100 · 15,893 bets |
| 843Cc4C8e6dc29A4581126660814B0a6eF6A0734.0x843c…0734 | Yes | 100 | 0.6¢ | $0 | — |
| akunai0x7ac4…4f44 | Yes | 95 | 0.6¢ | $0 | — |
| wozaitaibei0xdad7…005a | Yes | 95 | 0.7¢ | $0 | — |
| wtfsss0x472c…9c3d | Yes | 88 | 0.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd0e4…7d60 | Yes | 83 | 3.6¢ | $0 | — |
| pestanimal0x7bbf…7ce5 | Yes | 80 | 3.6¢ | $0 | — |
| fang19570xf82f…5ac5 | Yes | 80 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd0d9…30f2 | Yes | 75 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| fm140x4b91…982d | Yes | 75 | 0.5¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.79 per $100 · 4,018 bets |
| NoMoreMister0x4df7…522d | Yes | 65 | 7.1¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.57 per $100 · 28,074 bets |
| 0xb032…c16c | Yes | 60 | 50.0¢ | $0 | — |
| web3catworld0xa89d…fb00 | Yes | 56 | 3.6¢ | $0 | — |
| haouibao0xa499…2a2b | Yes | 45 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| Tee10000x5edc…bbad | Yes | 40 | 7.1¢ | $0 | — |
| products0x8575…87fe | No | 0 | 99.6¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.86 per $100 · 10,069 bets |
| EdwardLewis0xebc0…fa41 | Yes | 32 | 4.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.23 per $100 · 28,021 bets |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | Yes | 30 | 5.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 18,243 bets |
| gazzadk19810xda59…30db | Yes | 29 | 0.7¢ | $0 | — |
| rainbowlilies0x2106…4dea | Yes | 28 | 6.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.97 per $100 · 10,606 bets |
| Olrefand20x969b…db70 | Yes | 26 | 1.3¢ | $0 | — |
| Tysha0x9be9…c030 | Yes | 25 | 3.9¢ | $0 | — |
| LesterDiamond0x558f…1a56 | Yes | 25 | 7.1¢ | $0 | Proven+$4.05 per $100 · 23,888 bets |
| i18z0xd49b…bdf9 | No | 0 | 99.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd717…3b85 | Yes | 9 | 6.7¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 0 | 99.4¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,637 bets |
| 0x1e82…af92 | No | 0 | 99.5¢ | $0 | — |
| Anon3213213210x98ac…40d9 | No | 0 | 99.7¢ | $0 | — |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.