Market · 14 of 15 outcomes
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 20:38 UTC. Not financial advice.
Exactly one of this event's 15 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FlashTradeOracleTester0xa912…297f | No | 23 | 98.8¢ | $23 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 20 | 99.1¢ | $20 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,341 bets |
| 125-kooyanisqatsi0x4501…39d7 | Yes | 5,772 | 0.4¢ | $14 | — |
| fiter0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | 3,845 | 0.2¢ | $10 | Positive+$42.72 per $100 · 2,781 bets |
| daniel1221340x09fe…76ee | No | 9 | 98.9¢ | $9 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| 0xbe9d…a829 | Yes | 2,149 | 0.9¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xB16B00B50x8a7b…782f | Yes | 2,039 | 0.2¢ | $5 | — |
| dogmatrader0x44a7…c2e4 | No | 5 | 99.7¢ | $5 | — |
| BabyGroot0xbefa…300d | Yes | 1,473 | 1.0¢ | $4 | Positive+$12.19 per $100 · 3,935 bets |
| acc420200xeab6…d4c6 | Yes | 1,249 | 0.5¢ | $3 | — |
| wokerjoesleeper0x63d4…a2f1 | No | 2 | 99.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.35 per $100 · 44,557 bets |
| 0x85be…fe8b | Yes | 893 | 0.6¢ | $2 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 2 | 99.7¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| wwyy0xee29…89d8 | No | 2 | 98.7¢ | $2 | — |
| illyasviel0xa2d0…0823 | Yes | 562 | 0.6¢ | $1 | — |
| ICountElectricSheep0x0894…cf93 | Yes | 500 | 0.9¢ | $1 | — |
| awgraewrfa0x699e…a7ec | Yes | 471 | 50.0¢ | $1 | New0 settled bets |
| 0xc5d0…02c2 | Yes | 421 | 1.5¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xbe37…77c8 | Yes | 418 | 0.8¢ | $1 | — |
| MHD19970xfad4…a7f1 | No | 1 | 99.5¢ | $1 | — |
| PeppyCupW0x0e06…47ce | No | 1 | 99.6¢ | $1 | — |
| rated0xa3ad…6866 | No | 1 | 99.1¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.89 per $100 · 18,156 bets |
| 0x597f…702c | Yes | 378 | 0.5¢ | $1 | — |
| vamosgaming0x6cff…a463 | No | 1 | 99.8¢ | $1 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 335 | 5.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.54 per $100 · 124,233+ bets · updating |
| stupidestmoney0xe5ce…7f3f | No | 1 | 98.7¢ | $1 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 269 | 6.7¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,295 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 207 | 5.3¢ | $1 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,065 bets |
| 0x85b8…224d | Yes | 200 | 0.5¢ | $1 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 200 | 6.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 127,944 bets |
| 0xe5ab…8b8d | Yes | 197 | 0.5¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x1d36…2a3b | Yes | 172 | 0.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd686…d041 | Yes | 154 | 1.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x06d8…9446 | Yes | 150 | 0.5¢ | $0 | — |
| tamalaile0x1e69…e777 | Yes | 150 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| nandro0x9d2f…0e5b | Yes | 150 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xb032…c16c | Yes | 120 | 3.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xed88…0dfd | Yes | 120 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| Tiger880xa802…23df | Yes | 111 | 0.9¢ | $0 | — |
| EirikL0xb834…7e1d | Yes | 111 | 0.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd0e4…7d60 | Yes | 111 | 2.7¢ | $0 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 103 | 0.4¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| PolyJaguar0xc18b…3917 | Yes | 100 | 0.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$11.33 per $100 · 989 bets |
| wozaitaibei0xdad7…005a | Yes | 95 | 0.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x0853…f4fe | Yes | 92 | 1.1¢ | $0 | — |
| wtfsss0x472c…9c3d | Yes | 88 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 85 | 6.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,756 bets |
| fm140x4b91…982d | Yes | 80 | 0.5¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.79 per $100 · 4,018 bets |
| fang19570xf82f…5ac5 | Yes | 80 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| ShadowH10xd001…6850 | Yes | 77 | 1.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd0d9…30f2 | Yes | 75 | 0.4¢ | $0 | — |
| web3catworld0xa89d…fb00 | Yes | 74 | 2.7¢ | $0 | — |
| tiancs0x8301…3bdc | Yes | 50 | 1.0¢ | $0 | — |
| haouibao0xa499…2a2b | Yes | 45 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| ma990x6c37…d40f | Yes | 45 | 0.5¢ | $0 | Positive+$7.97 per $100 · 7,458 bets |
| Tee10000x5edc…bbad | Yes | 40 | 7.1¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.84 per $100 · 18,336 bets |
| products0x8575…87fe | No | 0 | 99.4¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.86 per $100 · 10,069 bets |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | Yes | 33 | 6.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$5.59 per $100 · 87,486 bets |
| Lucerys0x1387…55f8 | Yes | 33 | 6.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$5.70 per $100 · 57,440 bets |
| EdwardLewis0xebc0…fa41 | Yes | 32 | 4.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.23 per $100 · 28,021 bets |
| jeanmermier0x1e63…7267 | No | 0 | 99.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd39c…8d35 | No | 0 | 99.6¢ | $0 | — |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | Yes | 30 | 5.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.81 per $100 · 18,336 bets |
| hklcrypt0x7449…c05e | No | 0 | 99.7¢ | $0 | — |
| Underecusandaelo0x03a1…ecfa | No | 0 | 99.2¢ | $0 | — |
| Tysha0x9be9…c030 | Yes | 25 | 3.9¢ | $0 | — |
| LesterDiamond0x558f…1a56 | Yes | 25 | 7.1¢ | $0 | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 23,948 bets |
| i18z0xd49b…bdf9 | No | 0 | 99.6¢ | $0 | — |
| AIDROPP0x6f2a…9551 | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x227b…76f9 | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | — |
| lonelyfighter0x97c6…6587 | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | — |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | No | 0 | 99.7¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.72 per $100 · 78,097+ bets · updating |
| 0x01d2…c603 | No | 0 | 99.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xa996…34b5 | No | 0 | 99.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd717…3b85 | Yes | 9 | 6.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xf4c0…f9b2 | No | 0 | 99.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x8220…92a5 | No | 0 | 99.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x3317…76b4 | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xa158…1c1b | No | 0 | 99.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x72e0…0b96 | No | 0 | 99.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x6a07…2952 | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | — |
| Laurentdepau0x38ab…ab66 | No | 0 | 99.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x1e82…af92 | No | 0 | 99.3¢ | $0 | — |
| Anon3213213210x98ac…40d9 | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | — |
| Stack30x0525…5264 | No | 0 | 99.5¢ | $0 | — |
| Keyible0x37d1…d606 | No | 0 | 99.5¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x3ba0…417f | No | 0 | 99.6¢ | $0 | — |
| Helixus0x81e0…74cd | No | 0 | 99.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x84e4…1b06 | No | 0 | 99.6¢ | $0 | — |
| Dolorvoluptatefa0x8d91…d026 | No | 0 | 99.5¢ | $0 | — |
| D9f43eD0xa767…f938 | No | 0 | 100.5¢ | $0 | — |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | — |
| RadiantQuant0xd6b7…3ea5 | No | 0 | 99.6¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.