Market · 1 of 2 outcomes
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 01:45 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
7 proven traders are on Yes, 17 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | Yes | 52,703 | 59.5¢ | $30.8K | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,389 bets |
| lomneivan0x1fee…ed5e | Yes | 48,200 | 58.9¢ | $28.2K | New74 settled bets |
| qrup0xe1e3…f1bd | Yes | 18,058 | 59.0¢ | $10.6K | — |
| flawfence0x23d8…0288 | Yes | 9,995 | 58.0¢ | $5.85K | Proven+$3.89 per $100 · 729 bets |
| Valen90x162f…798d | No | 12,643 | 42.7¢ | $5.25K | Proven+$2.48 per $100 · 882 bets |
| bernardbulletin0x1c14…0869 | No | 12,572 | 35.9¢ | $5.22K | Proven+$11.16 per $100 · 2,363 bets |
| HD450x600e…7aac | No | 12,273 | 43.5¢ | $5.09K | — |
| gateway-0xa20c…451a | No | 10,583 | 40.3¢ | $4.39K | Losing−$1.87 per $100 · 224 bets |
| BigRabbit0xeb22…808a | No | 10,000 | 40.0¢ | $4.15K | Positive+$4.46 per $100 · 2,227 bets |
| grinder10110xeed7…16b2 | No | 8,279 | 43.0¢ | $3.44K | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 356 bets |
| smoovster0xfa77…563b | Yes | 5,849 | 60.8¢ | $3.42K | New50 settled bets |
| nnimrodd0x09bb…f8b1 | No | 8,117 | 44.8¢ | $3.37K | Losing−$3.50 per $100 · 496 bets |
| smoovdawg0x7345…87cf | Yes | 5,619 | 59.8¢ | $3.29K | New60 settled bets |
| Vilgefortz0x3c91…9af7 | Yes | 5,500 | 54.2¢ | $3.22K | Proven+$4.21 per $100 · 360 bets |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e050xe234…304a | No | 7,659 | 47.4¢ | $3.18K | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 625 bets |
| TTdes0x2586…c893 | No | 7,374 | 40.1¢ | $3.06K | Proven+$7.50 per $100 · 1,356 bets |
| JishWa0xf1fc…0ec1 | Yes | 5,000 | 61.0¢ | $2.92K | Losing−$2.20 per $100 · 233 bets |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | No | 6,236 | 39.3¢ | $2.59K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,102 bets |
| Ryxon210x3dca…3c13 | Yes | 3,882 | 62.4¢ | $2.27K | Proven+$7.45 per $100 · 578 bets |
| Heskel20xcfee…ffcd | Yes | 3,595 | 58.8¢ | $2.1K | — |
| AnonymousUsername0x9703…69c2 | No | 5,038 | 42.0¢ | $2.09K | Losing−$1.32 per $100 · 16,257 bets |
| 0xb9d8…275a | No | 5,000 | 41.0¢ | $2.07K | New21 settled bets |
| pieped0xf440…b009 | No | 4,000 | 45.0¢ | $1.66K | Break-even−$0.12 per $100 · 179 bets |
| G.Hchen0xdb97…eee8 | No | 3,500 | 44.6¢ | $1.45K | Proven+$9.18 per $100 · 691 bets |
| carkiller5300xef2f…8b9c | Yes | 2,408 | 65.4¢ | $1.41K | New20 settled bets |
| RabbitRunning0x111f…af00 | Yes | 2,182 | 56.0¢ | $1.28K | — |
| HuntersMethDealer0x3989…27b1 | Yes | 2,000 | 60.0¢ | $1.17K | Positive+$7.46 per $100 · 1,695 bets |
| Javier777Milei0x2e61…19bd | Yes | 1,900 | 56.2¢ | $1.11K | Positive+$1.85 per $100 · 844 bets |
| EmDub90xe624…e63b | Yes | 1,786 | 57.0¢ | $1.04K | — |
| pop0x6404…f250 | No | 2,500 | 43.0¢ | $1.04K | Proven+$2.06 per $100 · 351 bets |
| blockbyblockAI0xc92d…2339 | Yes | 1,724 | 59.0¢ | $1.01K | — |
| Sagand0xa181…ece8 | Yes | 1,713 | 59.4¢ | $1K | — |
| SlavaUkraini0xe899…0899 | No | 2,338 | 38.9¢ | $970 | Proven+$4.28 per $100 · 296 bets |
| ubv0x9763…722d | Yes | 1,639 | 62.0¢ | $959 | New4 settled bets |
| 0xc00d…6cd3 | Yes | 1,565 | 58.5¢ | $916 | New13 settled bets |
| Snarfsnarfsnarf0x9536…7e50 | Yes | 1,549 | 58.0¢ | $906 | New3 settled bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 2,126 | 40.0¢ | $882 | Proven+$3.50 per $100 · 13,216 bets |
| willsom0xaa99…dbbf | No | 2,000 | 45.0¢ | $830 | Proven+$7.45 per $100 · 782 bets |
| elockt0x01da…ea89 | No | 2,000 | 45.0¢ | $830 | — |
| theginth0xbd62…6a7e | Yes | 1,387 | 58.6¢ | $811 | — |
| Sayl7Seas0x77a6…3606 | Yes | 1,379 | 60.6¢ | $807 | New19 settled bets |
| Boey0x0539…70f9 | Yes | 1,200 | 56.0¢ | $702 | Positive+$20.65 per $100 · 454 bets |
| 0x3c64…09cd | No | 1,523 | 44.0¢ | $632 | — |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | No | 1,500 | 39.6¢ | $622 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| Folletin0x08c8…1da2 | Yes | 1,005 | 52.0¢ | $588 | Proven+$5.44 per $100 · 712 bets |
| Oneko0xb6ac…6b83 | Yes | 1,000 | 51.0¢ | $585 | Positive+$3.08 per $100 · 810 bets |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | No | 1,227 | 46.0¢ | $509 | Proven+$2.08 per $100 · 19,488 bets |
| 0xb799…06a1 | Yes | 820 | 62.0¢ | $480 | — |
| Railcool0x94c4…43ca | No | 1,148 | 39.0¢ | $477 | Proven+$13.67 per $100 · 222 bets |
| GrokEnjoyer0x92e5…efee | No | 1,111 | 41.0¢ | $461 | Positive+$1.17 per $100 · 833 bets |
| anciano0xa8b7…ee3c | No | 1,045 | 44.2¢ | $434 | Break-even−$0.07 per $100 · 6,243 bets |
| Zaratustra0x7818…d185 | No | 1,010 | 39.0¢ | $419 | Proven+$2.09 per $100 · 714 bets |
| Rebecca-950x5082…049d | No | 1,001 | 41.9¢ | $415 | Positive+$9.18 per $100 · 165 bets |
| 0xf27dc0x274e…648c | No | 1,000 | 42.0¢ | $415 | — |
| nchgbhy0x57b0…76f4 | No | 1,000 | 44.0¢ | $415 | Proven+$2.09 per $100 · 2,943 bets |
| RadioCCOD0x66f9…adb9 | No | 1,000 | 40.5¢ | $415 | Proven+$95.13 per $100 · 197 bets |
| ThatOneLatino0x2161…a6bb | Yes | 683 | 61.5¢ | $399 | — |
| LR10xad28…1601 | No | 867 | 40.8¢ | $360 | Positive+$2.84 per $100 · 1,226 bets |
| marksman0xb7d5…0789 | No | 827 | 43.2¢ | $343 | Break-even+$0.23 per $100 · 8,118 bets |
| buoys0x7e35…1a6c | No | 808 | 41.8¢ | $335 | Positive+$11.47 per $100 · 2,029 bets |
| 111220x011f…1122 | Yes | 534 | 58.7¢ | $313 | Positive+$1.55 per $100 · 5,659 bets |
| 123pocky0x06b6…eba6 | Yes | 500 | 58.0¢ | $292 | — |
| randomWalkingShrimp0x30d1…4525 | No | 650 | 40.7¢ | $270 | Proven+$8.22 per $100 · 1,875 bets |
| PavtheGreat0x048a…9be4 | Yes | 452 | 60.0¢ | $265 | Losing−$1.76 per $100 · 325 bets |
| cashmoneyyy0x1847…460f | Yes | 431 | 59.0¢ | $252 | — |
| gopfan20xf2f6…5817 | Yes | 416 | 59.8¢ | $244 | Proven+$5.39 per $100 · 2,338 bets |
| rocky420160x8d88…1e28 | No | 567 | 43.7¢ | $236 | Break-even−$0.49 per $100 · 11,002 bets |
| stoic-jang0x63d1…5083 | Yes | 400 | 59.0¢ | $234 | — |
| JAMJAMJAM40xe8c4…395d | Yes | 394 | 59.0¢ | $230 | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 7,027 bets |
| Echelonprt0x516d…03e5 | No | 500 | 41.0¢ | $208 | — |
| PK1230x6d65…3781 | No | 500 | 40.2¢ | $208 | Losing−$5.68 per $100 · 1,488 bets |
| Mecky0xa82b…5220 | No | 500 | 43.0¢ | $208 | Positive+$3.93 per $100 · 2,966 bets |
| pompey0xbbae…13f8 | Yes | 326 | 62.3¢ | $191 | — |
| bananaleaf0x3ec9…9ee3 | Yes | 314 | 56.0¢ | $184 | — |
| drtoxic780xea04…e79c | Yes | 310 | 63.1¢ | $181 | — |
| 1014560x8de0…7f22 | Yes | 309 | 55.0¢ | $181 | Proven+$14.85 per $100 · 244 bets |
| cocococococo0xbad2…5296 | No | 427 | 43.0¢ | $177 | Positive+$1.80 per $100 · 4,082 bets |
| COCOA0xd975…c6d6 | Yes | 300 | 59.4¢ | $176 | — |
| PMMMR0xb47e…c602 | No | 411 | 41.0¢ | $171 | — |
| ansatz0x5fa4…cd4e | No | 400 | 42.8¢ | $166 | Positive+$1.24 per $100 · 320 bets |
| GreatAgain280x681d…4cbf | No | 394 | 44.1¢ | $164 | — |
| WeJustBettin0xf6c6…7d80 | Yes | 270 | 66.9¢ | $158 | Break-even−$0.65 per $100 · 735 bets |
| TheNoobBeaver0x2bcd…cbfb | Yes | 270 | 60.0¢ | $158 | — |
| sweetj0x39a5…87f2 | Yes | 268 | 58.0¢ | $157 | Break-even+$0.80 per $100 · 3,603 bets |
| 0xcbdf…6a49 | Yes | 254 | 60.0¢ | $149 | New29 settled bets |
| TomsAwaki0xce5c…b3db | Yes | 251 | 60.7¢ | $147 | — |
| mountaindewd0x944e…8c94 | No | 350 | 45.9¢ | $145 | Proven+$9.46 per $100 · 748 bets |
| ImJustKen0x9d84…1344 | Yes | 236 | 76.0¢ | $138 | Proven+$2.12 per $100 · 17,781 bets |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | Yes | 231 | 56.7¢ | $135 | Losing−$9.18 per $100 · 190,902+ bets · updating |
| qfwdsd10x00cb…e987 | Yes | 222 | 56.0¢ | $130 | Losing−$4.68 per $100 · 2,952 bets |
| efghvcdbjkpqwo0xe0a5…f6a4 | Yes | 210 | 60.1¢ | $123 | New78 settled bets |
| 0x66e7…8bcd | No | 285 | 42.8¢ | $118 | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 22,911 bets |
| Brandon20250x4a12…e633 | Yes | 200 | 58.0¢ | $117 | — |
| Snoopyfan0x6291…cc47 | Yes | 200 | 50.0¢ | $117 | — |
| Dondigidin0x07b9…0fbb | No | 250 | 43.0¢ | $104 | — |
| choclopolis0xd449…450f | No | 250 | 41.0¢ | $104 | — |
| g1280x88d7…5762 | No | 238 | 42.0¢ | $99 | — |
| lpgb0x1f5f…50fa | No | 235 | 42.0¢ | $98 | — |
| wqeewqeadawfawfwa0xc4db…7e0c | No | 220 | 43.0¢ | $91 | — |
| AntonioSoto80530xe17a…c6fb | No | 210 | 38.0¢ | $87 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.