Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Germany by December 31, 2027?
Chance of Yes
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29 outcomes
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Ends
Jan 1
in 444 days
Full rules
As written on Polymarket for “Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Germany by December 31, 2027?”.
§1This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict begins by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
§2A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments.
§3Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
§4Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar.
§5Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
§6The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media.
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 21:43 UTC. Not financial advice.
§7Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
§8If the next qualifying diplomatic meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first diplomatic session begins.
§9For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia.
§10A meeting held in Vatican City will resolve to "Vatican City," not "Italy."
§11If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Europe."
§12If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Middle East/North Africa."
§13If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to "Other."
§14For purposes of this market, countries' regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department's regional classifications in the "Countries and Areas List" (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list).
§15Any country classified as part of "Europe and Eurasia" will be considered to be in Europe.
§16Any country classified as part of "Near East (Middle East and North Africa)" will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa.
§17If no qualifying senior-level peace talks begin by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Talks by December 31, 2027.”
§18The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.