Market · 5 of 20 outcomes
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 08:53 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fed260xaf45…ec7d | No | 2,352 | 50.5¢ | $2.29K | New30 settled bets |
| na6141mi3231bi321321a32130xbf8c…18fd | No | 1,851 | 12.0¢ | $1.8K | Losing−$4.44 per $100 · 187 bets |
| ratehikes0xa309…4cf2 | No | 1,239 | 56.5¢ | $1.21K | New49 settled bets |
| hippoka0xdd9c…31a0 | No | 1,042 | 7.3¢ | $1.02K | New77 settled bets |
| puravida0x80a4…22cc | No | 900 | 37.4¢ | $877 | Proven+$2.23 per $100 · 2,742 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 614 | 43.3¢ | $598 | Proven+$3.96 per $100 · 66,052 bets |
| varch010x0362…449e | No | 500 | 90.0¢ | $487 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 13,124 bets |
| Paul9739730xa108…abd3 | No | 158 | 95.2¢ | $154 | Break-even−$0.13 per $100 · 1,137 bets |
| nada0xf4f3…330d | No | 153 | 54.6¢ | $149 | Break-even−$0.70 per $100 · 198 bets |
| jutouwangmy0xc338…9f86 | No | 140 | 84.7¢ | $136 | — |
| 0x3c96…a6ef | No | 91 | 8.0¢ | $89 | — |
| 5atka0x1c26…6e31 | No | 79 | 21.8¢ | $77 | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 6,495 bets |
| blackbird050x932f…77a6 | No | 69 | 80.7¢ | $67 | — |
| whumpa0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | 2,480 | 68.9¢ | $63 | — |
| noise126trader0xafb1…0329 | No | 47 | 39.5¢ | $45 | — |
| tont.like.font0x967a…98b3 | No | 45 | 33.0¢ | $44 | — |
| morsels0xb2e9…0571 | No | 43 | 6.9¢ | $42 | — |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699 | Yes | 1,538 | 91.1¢ | $39 | Proven+$9.79 per $100 · 1,188 bets |
| 0x81e7…7389 | No | 40 | 82.4¢ | $39 | — |
| AtomicInsanity0x0156…2ddc | No | 40 | 4.3¢ | $39 | Losing−$20.60 per $100 · 355 bets |
| strategy1.20xc6d0…4bad | Yes | 1,293 | 58.1¢ | $33 | New2 settled bets |
| Itami0x9180…fb11 | No | 29 | 34.2¢ | $29 | — |
| krestx0x8f76…14d0 | No | 21 | 6.0¢ | $21 | — |
| codefly0xa4ef…c98f | No | 20 | 41.9¢ | $19 | New2 settled bets |
| BlazeAxel0xb5ff…bb6c | Yes | 759 | 49.5¢ | $19 | — |
| CompulsiveGambler0xe0f1…c4bd | Yes | 726 | 87.8¢ | $19 | Proven+$5.10 per $100 · 1,724 bets |
| S8880x0711…f03c | No | 18 | 42.1¢ | $17 | Proven+$9.13 per $100 · 9,031 bets |
| ImJustKen0x9d84…1344 | Yes | 555 | 82.5¢ | $14 | Proven+$2.12 per $100 · 17,781 bets |
| TaiQIU0x61a6…5877 | No | 14 | 84.7¢ | $14 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 407 | 34.0¢ | $10 | Positive+$6.99 per $100 · 29,969+ bets · updating |
| 0x39f4…df6a | No | 11 | 56.0¢ | $10 | — |
| akimbogod0x6056…c27c | No | 10 | 82.0¢ | $10 | Proven+$8.97 per $100 · 148 bets |
| liuruijin0x88b3…bad4 | No | 10 | 81.8¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x8c9f…46af | No | 10 | 9.0¢ | $9 | — |
| 0x6993…2108 | No | 9 | 70.1¢ | $8 | — |
| 0x8f4a…1539 | No | 8 | 72.0¢ | $8 | — |
| Flaner0x585b…753f | Yes | 304 | 57.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$4.08 per $100 · 927 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 7 | 90.0¢ | $7 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| this15cleverboy0x30dd…bb80 | Yes | 275 | 94.0¢ | $7 | New34 settled bets |
| ancapthur-6470xc867…8c08 | No | 7 | 14.1¢ | $7 | — |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 228 | 1.3¢ | $6 | — |
| Bond20260xd782…1d90 | Yes | 221 | 68.0¢ | $6 | — |
| TooYoungToWin0x28ab…2048 | No | 5 | 44.0¢ | $5 | — |
| Krzysio0xc124…25cb | No | 5 | 33.4¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xf41d…5e45 | No | 5 | 25.2¢ | $5 | — |
| Lavincey0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | 123 | 45.6¢ | $3 | Losing−$7.89 per $100 · 44,077+ bets · updating |
| Noonoo1230x2f52…9fba | No | 3 | 32.0¢ | $3 | — |
| BrianCole45460x7feb…6bc2 | No | 3 | 11.0¢ | $3 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 108 | 6.5¢ | $3 | Losing−$2.67 per $100 · 123,278+ bets · updating |
| tarifffe0x6255…900b | Yes | 105 | 18.7¢ | $3 | — |
| thepolwinner0x3078…0389 | No | 2 | 29.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.66 per $100 · 30,956 bets |
| 0xd10a…b9cd | No | 2 | 81.0¢ | $2 | — |
| LBZbot20xdb6c…ee14 | Yes | 60 | 70.7¢ | $2 | — |
| welldone6660x0609…29f5 | Yes | 50 | 10.5¢ | $1 | — |
| 25oodksmsss090x3bef…f04e | No | 1 | 23.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$2.74 per $100 · 3,550 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 45 | 33.3¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| troublemake0xf924…435b | Yes | 39 | 88.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xd2c5…91d7 | No | 1 | 83.7¢ | $1 | — |
| 11279930xec4e…dbeb | Yes | 35 | 64.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | 31 | 10.9¢ | $1 | Positive+$33.48 per $100 · 563 bets |
| 0xbc42…f042 | Yes | 29 | 95.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Italiancabin0xea4d…c654 | Yes | 26 | 94.0¢ | $1 | — |
| new-account-test2220xfe91…4cd3 | No | 1 | 92.9¢ | $1 | — |
| growwise0xe5aa…87ac | Yes | 18 | 29.2¢ | $0 | — |
| daroghi0xf0b0…8cab | Yes | 17 | 65.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.46 per $100 · 40,033+ bets · updating |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 17 | 6.3¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,938 bets |
| Raketa090x1790…6fd2 | Yes | 15 | 18.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.54 per $100 · 1,256 bets |
| colorfultortise110x6b16…6936 | Yes | 12 | 7.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$5.52 per $100 · 990 bets |
| Trashstar0x87ba…9fd1 | Yes | 10 | 78.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Agitator0xc4c6…63c1 | Yes | 10 | 90.0¢ | $0 | — |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | Yes | 10 | 19.8¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.08 per $100 · 225,331+ bets · updating |
| 0x929a…6efe | Yes | 8 | 95.0¢ | $0 | — |
| zxcdemon0x08c5…7836 | Yes | 8 | 65.0¢ | $0 | — |
| rocky420040xcf37…993f | No | 0 | 29.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xf85f…9800 | Yes | 5 | 91.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.53 per $100 · 919 bets |
| Adirza0x0e99…e191 | Yes | 5 | 95.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x2b06…754a | Yes | 5 | 11.0¢ | $0 | — |
| nc3iceibvtvetvbt0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | 5 | 5.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$18.76 per $100 · 22,737 bets |
| 0x474a…c816 | No | 0 | 26.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x0bf7…43a2 | Yes | 5 | 1.6¢ | $0 | — |
| sporty23120x54f6…8402 | No | 0 | 25.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x61f2…e77a | No | 0 | 94.4¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 1,637 bets |
| 51dgfd0x2baf…70ad | Yes | 4 | 23.3¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.53 per $100 · 229 bets |
| 7576770x7b98…5cfa | Yes | 3 | 93.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.20 per $100 · 1,528 bets |
| TamaraGomez62280xb338…1ff0 | Yes | 3 | 89.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xb4df…ef74 | Yes | 3 | 95.0¢ | $0 | — |
| rando123450xb401…df2a | Yes | 2 | 36.2¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.84 per $100 · 561 bets |
| HCStrikesBack0x3a1e…5bb5 | No | 0 | 72.8¢ | $0 | — |
| Sunbrowser0x9b1a…9a62 | Yes | 1 | 94.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xa344…bb29 | Yes | 1 | 94.0¢ | $0 | — |
| predictgeek0x21ff…5e2a | Yes | 1 | 8.4¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.69 per $100 · 1,185 bets |
| LetTheGoodTimesRoll0x1408…b4f8 | Yes | 1 | 59.4¢ | $0 | — |
| Maoshifu1230x6c12…748f | No | 0 | 61.2¢ | $0 | — |
| no1biao0xdf08…cf97 | Yes | 0 | 67.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 15rob0x2afd…deb4 | Yes | 0 | 13.6¢ | $0 | Proven+$2.28 per $100 · 9,823 bets |
| 0xf653…de77 | Yes | 0 | 89.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.