Market · 5 of 20 outcomes
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 05:59 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4e25…d7a7 | No | 7,944 | 26.0¢ | $7.72K | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 10,029 bets |
| ImJustKen0x9d84…1344 | No | 2,494 | 39.3¢ | $2.42K | Proven+$2.12 per $100 · 17,781 bets |
| DEGENKHAN0x21d0…ce91 | No | 2,293 | 97.6¢ | $2.23K | Positive+$1.05 per $100 · 2,670 bets |
| CastleRock0xfb64…eb56 | No | 2,000 | 98.0¢ | $1.94K | — |
| puravida0x80a4…22cc | No | 1,900 | 77.4¢ | $1.85K | Proven+$2.23 per $100 · 2,742 bets |
| 0xheavy8880xec98…afcd | No | 1,500 | 60.0¢ | $1.46K | Positive+$1.06 per $100 · 17,735 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 1,426 | 42.0¢ | $1.39K | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| hippoka0xdd9c…31a0 | No | 1,042 | 35.0¢ | $1.01K | New77 settled bets |
| StarMaster0xeca0…e8f8 | No | 1,001 | 42.1¢ | $973 | Proven+$2.31 per $100 · 4,789 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 530 | 97.6¢ | $515 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,934 bets |
| 0x919d…60e1 | No | 400 | 43.0¢ | $389 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 1,345 bets |
| TheLightFire0xa485…a7d5 | Yes | 13,410 | 16.7¢ | $375 | — |
| 0x8948…76e5 | No | 93 | 46.6¢ | $90 | — |
| MillyFilly0x5c57…5b16 | No | 88 | 49.0¢ | $85 | Proven+$2.52 per $100 · 6,881 bets |
| whumpa0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | 2,593 | 23.3¢ | $73 | — |
| mlplarper0x2d41…8c3d | No | 58 | 97.8¢ | $56 | — |
| Za-Loopa0x9233…b022 | No | 56 | 98.3¢ | $54 | — |
| swag.messiah0x77cd…5df0 | No | 55 | 98.3¢ | $53 | — |
| 1337L33T0x0adf…41ed | No | 52 | 98.4¢ | $51 | — |
| pazi-feast0x8883…df82 | No | 52 | 98.3¢ | $51 | — |
| hyperboreanchromosome0xf399…6bf5 | No | 52 | 98.3¢ | $51 | — |
| CDAP10xe033…40a5 | No | 42 | 49.3¢ | $41 | New40 settled bets |
| contabelepisto0x0b85…addd | No | 41 | 98.1¢ | $40 | — |
| mumumur0x18a4…5341 | No | 41 | 98.1¢ | $40 | — |
| axiol0x8217…4936 | No | 37 | 41.4¢ | $35 | — |
| ragnar-rock0x8c5f…3a5c | No | 35 | 97.8¢ | $34 | — |
| xramsey0xce2e…7543 | No | 35 | 34.0¢ | $34 | — |
| jacob090x0243…8586 | No | 28 | 34.0¢ | $27 | — |
| lyoo12100x1abe…f19f | Yes | 975 | 3.1¢ | $27 | Losing−$9.26 per $100 · 727 bets |
| BoughtTheTop0x3a56…387c | No | 21 | 31.0¢ | $20 | — |
| 0x2eba…ffa3 | No | 20 | 54.0¢ | $19 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 19 | 97.6¢ | $19 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 617 | 3.2¢ | $17 | Proven+$3.95 per $100 · 66,043 bets |
| Metusalem0xa65c…32fb | Yes | 577 | 2.2¢ | $16 | — |
| johnsonnina0xfcca…5cc5 | No | 16 | 34.0¢ | $16 | — |
| 0xf646…aa3a | No | 15 | 59.0¢ | $15 | — |
| vo2LCcPrd1x8Qa0x4383…170c | No | 14 | 98.0¢ | $14 | New44 settled bets |
| noise126trader0xafb1…0329 | No | 14 | 82.0¢ | $14 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 488 | 3.2¢ | $14 | Positive+$7.11 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| 0xb0a6…d67f | No | 13 | 36.0¢ | $13 | — |
| iuH1398SI0x44b7…2e99 | Yes | 455 | 2.3¢ | $13 | Losing−$4.93 per $100 · 738 bets |
| explorer2210x7fa5…7621 | Yes | 428 | 3.8¢ | $12 | — |
| Razirback0x92c7…c136 | Yes | 417 | 12.0¢ | $12 | Losing−$1.17 per $100 · 4,966 bets |
| 0xaa06…1e0f | Yes | 398 | 3.0¢ | $11 | Proven+$2.25 per $100 · 1,046 bets |
| 0xf85f…9800 | No | 11 | 53.0¢ | $11 | Break-even+$0.53 per $100 · 919 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 348 | 2.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| yasish180x5df5…31f3 | No | 10 | 68.0¢ | $10 | — |
| Bond20260xd782…1d90 | Yes | 294 | 17.0¢ | $8 | — |
| 0xb651…2089 | Yes | 277 | 17.0¢ | $8 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 260 | 12.0¢ | $7 | Positive+$6.99 per $100 · 29,969+ bets · updating |
| 0xfd0e…7ffc | No | 7 | 34.0¢ | $7 | — |
| 0xbdde…e54a | No | 7 | 56.0¢ | $7 | — |
| javictoria0x6365…eba8 | Yes | 227 | 2.3¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x3e3d…bbfa | No | 6 | 82.0¢ | $6 | — |
| mikeyDS0xbce5…bd37 | No | 6 | 88.5¢ | $6 | — |
| saiwang20260x025d…5b22 | Yes | 189 | 3.1¢ | $5 | — |
| zzop0x5b3b…0353 | No | 5 | 87.0¢ | $5 | — |
| ychwuw0xe8fd…f411 | Yes | 144 | 2.4¢ | $4 | — |
| 14gjhgjk0x3f1f…feae | No | 4 | 48.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$1.53 per $100 · 8,319 bets |
| AprilJimenez14650x7e4e…6533 | No | 3 | 43.0¢ | $3 | — |
| cabbag0x2af1…d858 | Yes | 100 | 2.6¢ | $3 | Break-even+$0.86 per $100 · 274 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 92 | 1.6¢ | $3 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| poliknomi0x477d…55a9 | Yes | 87 | 49.6¢ | $2 | — |
| frostyhopper0xef4a…5eeb | Yes | 87 | 2.4¢ | $2 | — |
| thepolwinner0x3078…0389 | No | 2 | 50.1¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.66 per $100 · 30,956 bets |
| thecaricature0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | 80 | 2.7¢ | $2 | — |
| SupersonicStrawberry0x2302…d402 | No | 2 | 44.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$2.35 per $100 · 1,359 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 60 | 2.6¢ | $2 | Losing−$2.70 per $100 · 123,093 bets |
| 0xc1e2…4e7c | Yes | 55 | 2.3¢ | $2 | — |
| MemeLoverOfficial0x5d55…7cba | Yes | 50 | 2.0¢ | $1 | Proven+$40.35 per $100 · 15,805 bets |
| Hugin-og-Munin0x8fe7…6c1f | Yes | 50 | 3.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$5.79 per $100 · 29,719+ bets · updating |
| ivanzolo20040x42fa…4c09 | Yes | 49 | 2.7¢ | $1 | New45 settled bets |
| 5atka0x1c26…6e31 | Yes | 45 | 40.9¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 6,495 bets |
| DyM3TuiM30x03ca…740b | Yes | 42 | 43.1¢ | $1 | — |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | Yes | 38 | 5.2¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.83 per $100 · 218,207+ bets · updating |
| SaucePolly10x2869…527d | No | 1 | 84.0¢ | $1 | — |
| MarkMartinez58360xe87e…4f70 | Yes | 35 | 57.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xbf72…b528 | Yes | 34 | 3.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x3d9d…e521 | No | 1 | 51.0¢ | $1 | — |
| ToniPolster0xb1fc…51ac | Yes | 31 | 49.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Estekero0x0910…ce1c | No | 1 | 54.0¢ | $1 | — |
| rocky420040xcf37…993f | No | 1 | 94.3¢ | $1 | — |
| uniloktij0xf13f…31cb | Yes | 29 | 4.1¢ | $1 | — |
| NordicAnalyst0x9f36…2937 | Yes | 28 | 46.0¢ | $1 | — |
| ramirezedward0xf937…073d | Yes | 28 | 67.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Gohst0x2d4b…ca7a | Yes | 26 | 16.0¢ | $1 | Proven+$80.31 per $100 · 2,060 bets |
| 0x75d1…90da | Yes | 25 | 20.0¢ | $1 | — |
| mariaanderson0xa17e…b172 | Yes | 23 | 67.0¢ | $1 | — |
| LucyAI0xbbf9…9e8b | Yes | 23 | 55.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$4.35 per $100 · 271 bets |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 20 | 2.9¢ | $1 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| bm3i82qz3py90x4e89…2552 | No | 1 | 48.0¢ | $0 | — |
| xixihaha0090xf17d…6f86 | Yes | 17 | 2.3¢ | $0 | — |
| nofreelunch0x19f8…fa4d | Yes | 17 | 60.0¢ | $0 | — |
| TheLARPDestroyer0x3f52…43de | Yes | 16 | 19.0¢ | $0 | — |
| scontreras0x4367…5555 | Yes | 16 | 67.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Brianm0xa8da…d488 | Yes | 15 | 13.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.