Market · 15 of 20 outcomes
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 03:01 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 5 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4e25…d7a7 | No | 5,547 | 64.2¢ | $5.44K | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 10,029 bets |
| puravida0x80a4…22cc | No | 3,752 | 87.7¢ | $3.68K | Proven+$2.23 per $100 · 2,742 bets |
| DEGENKHAN0x21d0…ce91 | No | 1,397 | 97.2¢ | $1.37K | Positive+$1.05 per $100 · 2,670 bets |
| Skaliz0x4ba4…8a89 | No | 1,045 | 62.5¢ | $1.02K | Positive+$1.34 per $100 · 1,501 bets |
| hippoka0xdd9c…31a0 | No | 1,042 | 64.0¢ | $1.02K | New77 settled bets |
| StarMaster0xeca0…e8f8 | No | 1,000 | 60.3¢ | $981 | Proven+$2.31 per $100 · 4,789 bets |
| spec-tater0xf70e…97f0 | No | 710 | 67.8¢ | $696 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 678 | 96.0¢ | $665 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,920 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 389 | 63.0¢ | $381 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| ychwuw0xe8fd…f411 | No | 358 | 96.4¢ | $351 | — |
| spoonable0x30ad…b098 | No | 273 | 96.1¢ | $268 | — |
| Joebama0xb9cf…75d1 | Yes | 8,675 | 16.9¢ | $169 | — |
| lopjuty0xbd9b…d2a1 | No | 104 | 95.5¢ | $102 | — |
| RazvanelMan0x4e20…ccb8 | Yes | 5,120 | 36.5¢ | $100 | — |
| Hugin-og-Munin0x8fe7…6c1f | No | 88 | 93.3¢ | $86 | Positive+$5.79 per $100 · 29,719+ bets · updating |
| akimbogod0x6056…c27c | No | 56 | 96.0¢ | $55 | Proven+$8.97 per $100 · 148 bets |
| futuhevcleric0x01c7…97a3 | No | 49 | 96.1¢ | $48 | — |
| S8880x0711…f03c | No | 46 | 94.0¢ | $45 | Proven+$9.13 per $100 · 9,031 bets |
| Ahpo0xcdb1…276c | No | 44 | 96.2¢ | $43 | Break-even+$0.99 per $100 · 3,433 bets |
| axiol0x8217…4936 | No | 32 | 63.2¢ | $31 | — |
| SIGSEGV0x4025…a309 | No | 26 | 64.0¢ | $25 | Proven+$4.10 per $100 · 131 bets |
| whumpa0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | 773 | 17.6¢ | $15 | — |
| UpUp-4630x46c9…c26c | No | 14 | 96.3¢ | $13 | — |
| tytryrt0x07e0…e1e8 | No | 10 | 92.0¢ | $10 | — |
| jnnnv0xe402…76c9 | No | 10 | 82.0¢ | $10 | — |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 405 | 1.9¢ | $8 | — |
| JustBot0xe33b…6de8 | No | 6 | 75.0¢ | $6 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 296 | 1.2¢ | $6 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| Farmer7070xe725…3bb8 | No | 6 | 90.0¢ | $5 | — |
| kiohssudhhd0xd0a5…3e7f | No | 5 | 97.8¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xe298…979b | No | 5 | 96.4¢ | $5 | — |
| HealthyTech0xc8fb…72cd | No | 5 | 80.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xf41d…5e45 | No | 5 | 83.0¢ | $5 | — |
| destropyer0x363c…4463 | No | 5 | 74.0¢ | $4 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 158 | 4.2¢ | $3 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| IlIlllIIIIllllIlIlllllIlIIIllllI0x8374…9149 | Yes | 150 | 29.0¢ | $3 | — |
| xixihaha0090xf17d…6f86 | No | 3 | 95.5¢ | $3 | — |
| krootz0x450e…4fdd | No | 3 | 97.1¢ | $3 | — |
| 5atka0x1c26…6e31 | No | 3 | 75.0¢ | $3 | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 6,495 bets |
| omsode0x82bd…335e | Yes | 130 | 1.9¢ | $3 | — |
| carlosssss0x6d46…c50c | Yes | 128 | 25.8¢ | $2 | — |
| if-then-else0x8b58…aeb6 | Yes | 100 | 17.0¢ | $2 | — |
| papayonci0x0e45…ae93 | No | 2 | 62.0¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.69 per $100 · 711 bets |
| silentbob010xa88d…221c | No | 2 | 62.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xe1db…bcf7 | No | 2 | 64.0¢ | $2 | — |
| no1biao0xdf08…cf97 | No | 1 | 83.0¢ | $1 | — |
| thecaricature0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | 60 | 1.7¢ | $1 | — |
| Babs13370xe5d4…7656 | Yes | 60 | 36.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 59 | 4.4¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.95 per $100 · 66,042 bets |
| cabbag0x2af1…d858 | Yes | 57 | 1.9¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x2059…f13b | No | 1 | 91.4¢ | $1 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 52 | 2.2¢ | $1 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| deSora0x6eae…1916 | No | 1 | 96.8¢ | $1 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 50 | 6.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$6.99 per $100 · 29,969+ bets · updating |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 48 | 2.6¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 122,985 bets |
| 0x012f…24dd | No | 1 | 82.0¢ | $1 | — |
| poliknomi0x477d…55a9 | Yes | 42 | 25.2¢ | $1 | — |
| 15rob0x2afd…deb4 | No | 1 | 93.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Lavincey0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | 41 | 17.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.89 per $100 · 44,077+ bets · updating |
| 0x572c…4360 | No | 1 | 97.9¢ | $1 | — |
| markisalambert0x21c3…5654 | No | 1 | 95.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xb651…2089 | Yes | 30 | 10.0¢ | $1 | — |
| explorer2210x7fa5…7621 | Yes | 26 | 4.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x595a…bca8 | No | 1 | 64.0¢ | $0 | — |
| ivybaby020x9771…db67 | Yes | 25 | 3.8¢ | $0 | — |
| LetTheGoodTimesRoll0x1408…b4f8 | No | 0 | 82.4¢ | $0 | — |
| uniloktij0xf13f…31cb | Yes | 23 | 1.9¢ | $0 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 22 | 2.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| Tanxuan-poker0xe196…b2b8 | Yes | 21 | 5.1¢ | $0 | — |
| LBZbot20xdb6c…ee14 | Yes | 20 | 19.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x90990xfafc…8a4e | Yes | 20 | 2.2¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 0 | 96.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| 0x13e2…8363 | Yes | 10 | 10.5¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x67dd…9eb9 | Yes | 10 | 10.5¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xc686…1421 | Yes | 10 | 10.5¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xdeb3…60cc | Yes | 10 | 18.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xf869…2e90 | Yes | 10 | 10.5¢ | $0 | — |
| krestx0x8f76…14d0 | Yes | 10 | 23.0¢ | $0 | — |
| frank195710xa182…aca0 | Yes | 8 | 17.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xb536…6f32 | Yes | 7 | 36.0¢ | $0 | — |
| ZakazDostavlen0x34dc…08e9 | Yes | 6 | 8.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xa204…3857 | Yes | 6 | 39.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x1a54…f101 | Yes | 5 | 39.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xf004…adaf | Yes | 5 | 20.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Asakalang0x0109…02d4 | Yes | 5 | 4.3¢ | $0 | — |
| snic0xfe4a…e5a9 | Yes | 5 | 20.0¢ | $0 | — |
| speed-70xda89…f562 | Yes | 5 | 8.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Agitator0xc4c6…63c1 | Yes | 4 | 27.0¢ | $0 | — |
| norbika0xa7db…6688 | Yes | 4 | 4.5¢ | $0 | — |
| thepolwinner0x3078…0389 | Yes | 4 | 18.1¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.66 per $100 · 30,956 bets |
| 0x04df…5401 | Yes | 3 | 30.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 0 | 94.5¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,489 bets |
| Surfplayer0xc599…d730 | Yes | 3 | 34.0¢ | $0 | — |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | No | 0 | 97.9¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.67 per $100 · 44,379+ bets · updating |
| predictdogepepewif0xf524…8178 | Yes | 2 | 4.5¢ | $0 | Losing−$5.59 per $100 · 11,425 bets |
| labubulalala0x23eb…c516 | Yes | 1 | 11.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.