Market · 5 of 8 outcomes
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% in October?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 14:13 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xff7c…b233 | No | 155 | 57.1¢ | $129 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| Gaditima0x7e59…7b8b | No | 100 | 74.0¢ | $83 | Losing−$3.77 per $100 · 23,410 bets |
| almosthere0xbd2b…1a1b | No | 99 | 70.7¢ | $82 | Positive+$6.09 per $100 · 137 bets |
| grinder10110xeed7…16b2 | No | 91 | 63.2¢ | $75 | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 356 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 344 | 34.6¢ | $59 | Losing−$2.60 per $100 · 123,566 bets |
| SmartBoyBilly0x1491…fd70 | No | 40 | 68.0¢ | $33 | Losing−$7.91 per $100 · 3,067 bets |
| timeistmoney0xf0ed…87b1 | No | 40 | 65.3¢ | $33 | — |
| johnashbough0xef13…63d9 | No | 32 | 74.0¢ | $26 | — |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | No | 29 | 68.8¢ | $24 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| 0xf528…7e5b | No | 20 | 88.0¢ | $17 | — |
| 0x4629…f3b1 | No | 18 | 58.9¢ | $15 | Losing−$7.33 per $100 · 5,354 bets |
| financegaaaydog0xe2a3…8e01 | Yes | 63 | 41.9¢ | $11 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 49 | 43.7¢ | $8 | — |
| ddadsf0x9d17…c777 | No | 10 | 64.0¢ | $8 | — |
| sadfsadf0xd47c…c70a | No | 10 | 64.0¢ | $8 | — |
| Polimaki0x98a8…a47b | Yes | 40 | 27.0¢ | $7 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 40 | 34.8¢ | $7 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 5 | 64.5¢ | $4 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| PerformSleepState0xbdad…3ef7 | Yes | 20 | 13.6¢ | $3 | — |
| tiongbu0xb777…3ff9 | Yes | 20 | 38.0¢ | $3 | — |
| G24L80x8a51…51a2 | Yes | 19 | 50.2¢ | $3 | — |
| GrupoM40xbd92…3482 | Yes | 12 | 42.2¢ | $2 | — |
| winexecutescale0xfe93…8d0e | Yes | 10 | 24.0¢ | $2 | — |
| xixihaha0090xf17d…6f86 | Yes | 7 | 13.6¢ | $1 | — |
| ConsensusOfCredibleReporting0x0275…b936 | Yes | 6 | 18.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 14,400 bets |
| mavsgseguritas0x5768…3bae | No | 1 | 64.7¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | 5 | 7.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$15.49 per $100 · 4,509 bets |
| MrYanDao0x468b…68a5 | Yes | 5 | 24.9¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.07 per $100 · 2,638 bets |
| oneoftheppl0x4d1d…01ac | Yes | 5 | 45.2¢ | $1 | Proven+$2.13 per $100 · 7,403 bets |
| jhuus0x4e90…e295 | Yes | 2 | 27.0¢ | $0 | — |
| PrivetProperty0x3c1d…da77 | Yes | 1 | 8.0¢ | $0 | — |
| hitunfar0xb980…73b0 | Yes | 1 | 12.5¢ | $0 | — |
| rubby13370x9c18…f3a2 | Yes | 0 | 45.0¢ | $0 | — |
| hithitfar0xe53c…e569 | No | 0 | 56.2¢ | $0 | Proven+$7.52 per $100 · 3,961 bets |
| UpTheStairs0x8bac…5b0e | Yes | 0 | 27.0¢ | $0 | — |
| romanew-1-new0x7438…b741 | Yes | 0 | 7.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.