Market · 3 of 22 outcomes
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 23:07 UTC. Not financial advice.
Exactly one of this event's 22 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 5 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5b91…2709 | No | 1,184 | 71.8¢ | $1.05K | Positive+$1.91 per $100 · 1,151 bets |
| Joaks0xdaf6…662c | Yes | 6,303 | 29.1¢ | $693 | — |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | No | 728 | 83.4¢ | $648 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 19,896 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 640 | 75.9¢ | $570 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,067 bets |
| variant1.meta0xdf59…deb0 | No | 541 | 77.3¢ | $481 | — |
| flexibleagedbeef0xbbc5…b08b | No | 508 | 88.7¢ | $452 | — |
| QMG-CORE0xcaab…24dd | Yes | 3,000 | 4.5¢ | $330 | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 2,412 bets |
| 0x1ff3…eb39 | Yes | 2,797 | 14.7¢ | $308 | Positive+$3.53 per $100 · 336 bets |
| buoys0x7e35…1a6c | Yes | 2,655 | 13.2¢ | $292 | Positive+$11.50 per $100 · 2,033 bets |
| pkz0x49b6…170c | Yes | 2,206 | 5.2¢ | $243 | Proven+$5.06 per $100 · 1,472 bets |
| lottonakamoto0x2884…d0c3 | No | 266 | 85.4¢ | $237 | Break-even+$0.80 per $100 · 990 bets |
| Milin-dc0x2762…2cf6 | No | 200 | 81.7¢ | $178 | Break-even+$0.55 per $100 · 1,651 bets |
| paddaa0x60a9…5a71 | Yes | 1,224 | 3.3¢ | $135 | Proven+$5.21 per $100 · 2,232 bets |
| knrad0x4d01…1645 | No | 150 | 85.5¢ | $134 | Positive+$2.87 per $100 · 1,296 bets |
| adenakoz10xb615…73cf | No | 128 | 78.5¢ | $114 | Proven+$21.35 per $100 · 1,988 bets |
| fiter0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | 985 | 0.7¢ | $108 | Positive+$42.72 per $100 · 2,781 bets |
| lolbettor0x8059…f1f3 | Yes | 905 | 21.0¢ | $100 | — |
| Abladollosac0x3e98…5389 | No | 107 | 81.6¢ | $95 | Losing−$25.76 per $100 · 100 bets |
| DonPatatoPatatero0xcc74…f5aa | Yes | 811 | 2.0¢ | $89 | — |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | No | 95 | 83.0¢ | $85 | — |
| Casadepapel0x2ae2…8b8f | Yes | 723 | 3.5¢ | $80 | — |
| aneale0140x1701…466c | Yes | 689 | 8.7¢ | $76 | — |
| marucho760x8bc2…fae1 | Yes | 664 | 1.5¢ | $73 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 78 | 82.5¢ | $69 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,557 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 464 | 4.5¢ | $51 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,803 bets |
| szen0xb74b…d887 | Yes | 444 | 3.4¢ | $49 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 390 | 4.5¢ | $43 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 127,993 bets |
| JK2-Av0xa1d1…64a7 | Yes | 370 | 6.7¢ | $41 | — |
| EconProf0x2811…6818 | No | 43 | 91.1¢ | $39 | Positive+$1.77 per $100 · 519 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 325 | 1.5¢ | $36 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| Banditoes0xe7fe…24e5 | Yes | 300 | 4.0¢ | $33 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 37 | 79.5¢ | $33 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| yatata0xa072…9e34 | Yes | 293 | 28.7¢ | $32 | Break-even−$0.62 per $100 · 2,111 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 264 | 4.8¢ | $29 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| flawfence0x23d8…0288 | Yes | 258 | 1.8¢ | $28 | Proven+$3.89 per $100 · 729 bets |
| CDReves0x3bf2…70a4 | Yes | 250 | 9.4¢ | $28 | — |
| 0xd717…3b85 | No | 31 | 86.9¢ | $27 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 30 | 89.7¢ | $27 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | No | 30 | 80.2¢ | $27 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 236 | 2.0¢ | $26 | Losing−$2.72 per $100 · 78,097+ bets · updating |
| Bigggggggg0x511f…cbe1 | Yes | 187 | 3.4¢ | $21 | Positive+$8.01 per $100 · 18,920 bets |
| hspje890xb44b…3fdb | No | 22 | 97.0¢ | $19 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 20 | 89.6¢ | $18 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,166 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 159 | 16.6¢ | $18 | Losing−$2.52 per $100 · 124,382+ bets · updating |
| 0xd965…98cf | Yes | 130 | 21.5¢ | $14 | — |
| Tallguy25270x0cf6…3ed9 | Yes | 130 | 25.8¢ | $14 | Losing−$4.17 per $100 · 8,350 bets |
| POB-T0x41e6…66b7 | Yes | 103 | 17.3¢ | $11 | Losing−$4.82 per $100 · 8,567 bets |
| haouibao0xa499…2a2b | Yes | 95 | 24.8¢ | $10 | — |
| asdfasd110x0680…4ba7 | No | 10 | 83.6¢ | $9 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 6,368 bets |
| ddd13421b0x1292…b00b | No | 10 | 75.0¢ | $9 | Positive+$1.73 per $100 · 9,059 bets |
| asdfdd9180x5d3d…8105 | No | 10 | 76.1¢ | $9 | Positive+$1.12 per $100 · 11,893 bets |
| asdfll10x601f…bb82 | No | 10 | 75.1¢ | $9 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 7,353 bets |
| lll918dd0x6250…f49a | No | 10 | 90.9¢ | $9 | Proven+$2.63 per $100 · 3,025 bets |
| gerardom550x914b…a886 | Yes | 80 | 6.0¢ | $9 | — |
| jmanb0xd65f…c498 | Yes | 74 | 9.2¢ | $8 | — |
| carlosegh35308u0xf86f…41b2 | Yes | 65 | 24.5¢ | $7 | — |
| Gorea0x22e0…3adb | Yes | 57 | 3.5¢ | $6 | Losing−$21.33 per $100 · 690 bets |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 51 | 9.5¢ | $6 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| televisionloud0x6c1c…1ac2 | Yes | 50 | 11.4¢ | $6 | Losing−$5.59 per $100 · 1,838 bets |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | No | 6 | 80.6¢ | $5 | Break-even−$0.81 per $100 · 18,336 bets |
| 0xf965…ccb0 | No | 6 | 72.4¢ | $5 | New34 settled bets |
| MrGrunbaum0xaf1f…9dc5 | Yes | 42 | 13.5¢ | $5 | — |
| asdfdd1230x2232…a2c5 | No | 5 | 74.7¢ | $4 | — |
| aaab819d0x901e…58f0 | No | 5 | 74.9¢ | $4 | — |
| kk8s118es0xe39f…f224 | No | 5 | 76.1¢ | $4 | — |
| whoeason0x1ff2…b29f | Yes | 40 | 21.4¢ | $4 | Losing−$9.90 per $100 · 100 bets |
| NotManu0x0815…1dc5 | No | 5 | 81.2¢ | $4 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 36 | 19.6¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,989 bets |
| daniel1221340x09fe…76ee | No | 4 | 97.8¢ | $3 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| 0xb032…c16c | Yes | 30 | 2.4¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xccf5…f72f | Yes | 26 | 18.9¢ | $3 | — |
| IntoDarkness7790x3d3c…630b | Yes | 26 | 3.8¢ | $3 | — |
| romanew-5-15p0x93e2…92b9 | Yes | 21 | 24.3¢ | $2 | — |
| Espiritu0xb548…0750 | Yes | 20 | 24.9¢ | $2 | — |
| KickstandBot0xca1f…d282 | Yes | 20 | 2.9¢ | $2 | — |
| Gwigwi1994030x744b…8d31 | Yes | 19 | 15.7¢ | $2 | Losing−$5.55 per $100 · 529 bets |
| Hugin-og-Munin0x8fe7…6c1f | Yes | 18 | 4.3¢ | $2 | Positive+$5.79 per $100 · 29,719+ bets · updating |
| romanew-cryp0xbd91…6262 | Yes | 16 | 21.4¢ | $2 | Positive+$3.04 per $100 · 3,574 bets |
| 0x05b2…c70d | No | 1 | 95.8¢ | $1 | — |
| babyalgo0x0a3a…e990 | Yes | 10 | 2.4¢ | $1 | — |
| ddd333aaa0x1dc1…5f5b | Yes | 10 | 20.8¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.06 per $100 · 4,881 bets |
| guay2xd0x2971…0573 | Yes | 10 | 20.4¢ | $1 | — |
| StevieKiwi0xe9f3…c4a6 | No | 1 | 75.7¢ | $0 | — |
| rocky420080x79dc…ca77 | No | 0 | 82.1¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.10 per $100 · 5,361 bets |
| skyrocks0xa3cf…1a67 | No | 0 | 98.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xc5da…5f86 | No | 0 | 91.5¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x86dd…1af2 | No | 0 | 83.1¢ | $0 | — |
| haveagoodday0xae2a…384d | No | 0 | 80.5¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.93 per $100 · 12,423 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 0 | 13.4¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.