Market · 20 of 23 outcomes
Will Palmer Luckey attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 14, 2026, 01:02 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| aviato0x2a01…6397 | No | 1,299 | 95.0¢ | $1.27K | Positive+$1.04 per $100 · 3,747 bets |
| S8880x0711…f03c | No | 10 | 94.0¢ | $10 | Proven+$9.08 per $100 · 9,048 bets |
| ViscaElBarca0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | 250 | 5.0¢ | $7 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 200 | 18.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$7.00 per $100 · 51,215 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 170 | 18.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$2.53 per $100 · 125,473+ bets · updating |
| Touge0x1c44…6c6b | Yes | 136 | 3.5¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.05 per $100 · 317 bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | Yes | 92 | 3.0¢ | $2 | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,308 bets |
| Convex790x4d86…1cb2 | Yes | 60 | 3.0¢ | $2 | Positive+$2.38 per $100 · 1,401 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 60 | 18.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$8.67 per $100 · 13,185 bets |
| 0x8b1c…d8a9 | Yes | 60 | 28.3¢ | $2 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 42 | 5.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$14.60 per $100 · 54,599 bets |
| znyb25tza7az0x7362…12c1 | No | 1 | 98.0¢ | $1 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 30 | 6.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 73,733 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 20 | 5.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.21 per $100 · 28,079 bets |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.0x29ed…a8da | Yes | 20 | 18.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$3.48 per $100 · 14,006 bets |
| 0x4629…f3b1 | Yes | 20 | 17.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.36 per $100 · 5,428 bets |
| HosoTrader0x5ad9…f29d | Yes | 20 | 53.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Slackjaw0x6236…6881 | Yes | 20 | 52.0¢ | $1 | — |
| rubby13370x9c18…f3a2 | Yes | 20 | 40.5¢ | $1 | — |
| boofa0xbc42…790f | Yes | 20 | 53.0¢ | $1 | — |
| asfdt120x9b01…1f7a | Yes | 20 | 18.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x5449…992b | Yes | 17 | 6.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.15 per $100 · 6,740 bets |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 14 | 2.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$4.52 per $100 · 88,243+ bets · updating |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 7 | 3.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 6 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 5-testfollower-car0x3be5…f7fe | Yes | 5 | 3.1¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.95 per $100 · 817 bets |
| 0xc5da…5f86 | No | 0 | 96.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x0f18…5b28 | Yes | 1 | 3.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.96 per $100 · 3,596 bets |
| abunyee0x78b6…bc74 | Yes | 1 | 7.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.