Market · 2 of 2 outcomes
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 13:04 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 6 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 572849100x856a…4ea2 | No | 1,503 | 96.5¢ | $1.45K | New18 settled bets |
| archaic0x1f0a…f7aa | No | 702 | 93.2¢ | $678 | Positive+$1.91 per $100 · 3,369 bets |
| DontTrustMe0x0403…a7ee | No | 518 | 85.2¢ | $500 | Proven+$28.07 per $100 · 106 bets |
| 0xc33a…cc98 | No | 328 | 91.4¢ | $317 | — |
| manlets0xe90a…06b7 | No | 252 | 96.3¢ | $243 | Positive+$2.83 per $100 · 494 bets |
| tilchi0x7f1d…45dc | No | 225 | 94.7¢ | $217 | — |
| 0xfa39…977f | No | 224 | 90.2¢ | $216 | Proven+$9.13 per $100 · 1,051 bets |
| oleotourist0x1d5a…efc1 | No | 213 | 94.0¢ | $205 | New46 settled bets |
| PadreMaronno0xc468…009d | No | 147 | 85.0¢ | $142 | — |
| SteppeKasandra0xa291…1c8b | No | 108 | 92.4¢ | $105 | — |
| vbm0x8304…f086 | No | 100 | 92.7¢ | $97 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 3,461 bets |
| 007-Bond0x8947…f4b4 | No | 100 | 96.2¢ | $97 | New96 settled bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 97 | 94.8¢ | $94 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,943 bets |
| XieGuangKun0x25dc…e33b | No | 60 | 88.0¢ | $58 | Proven+$9.37 per $100 · 1,200 bets |
| sentientsnake0x105c…b786 | No | 50 | 95.9¢ | $48 | Positive+$1.56 per $100 · 102 bets |
| gabrielaaram0xf67c…b729 | No | 50 | 96.1¢ | $48 | — |
| bnetopt0xf18f…294c | Yes | 1,250 | 10.2¢ | $43 | Losing−$21.26 per $100 · 431 bets |
| ster0x91b9…dcd8 | No | 42 | 89.0¢ | $41 | — |
| UniPoony0x3f13…3345 | No | 42 | 96.3¢ | $40 | New67 settled bets |
| jesus-rooster0x5c98…a58b | No | 40 | 90.0¢ | $39 | — |
| 0xf040…d11f | No | 39 | 91.3¢ | $37 | — |
| adamslouis0xe80b…9b55 | No | 32 | 93.2¢ | $31 | — |
| urugvanda0x1507…2d82 | No | 30 | 96.9¢ | $29 | — |
| postmeta0x2987…8512 | No | 30 | 91.5¢ | $29 | Proven+$2.18 per $100 · 792 bets |
| 0x13d6…5cc7 | Yes | 823 | 6.1¢ | $28 | Losing−$16.30 per $100 · 151 bets |
| noise126trader0xafb1…0329 | No | 28 | 91.7¢ | $27 | — |
| harrisdanielle0x8d17…8a39 | No | 27 | 94.0¢ | $26 | — |
| rmaynard0x31cb…f2c2 | No | 26 | 94.0¢ | $25 | — |
| joel420x76a1…a3a4 | No | 21 | 94.0¢ | $21 | — |
| harveycourtney0xc318…c2cf | No | 21 | 94.0¢ | $21 | — |
| PaddyAlpha0x9ad0…bf3d | Yes | 592 | 4.2¢ | $20 | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 3,062 bets |
| Jest550xd34b…0004 | No | 20 | 95.9¢ | $19 | Proven+$5.65 per $100 · 2,690 bets |
| 0x79bd…cf32 | Yes | 532 | 9.4¢ | $18 | — |
| tzquantalpha0010x5923…49cd | No | 19 | 95.8¢ | $18 | Break-even+$0.40 per $100 · 627 bets |
| 0x275c…6090 | No | 18 | 96.0¢ | $17 | — |
| yueyueyn0xb87f…f7d4 | No | 16 | 94.6¢ | $15 | — |
| Tostikk0xf142…e5c3 | No | 16 | 92.0¢ | $15 | — |
| 0xc036…b284 | No | 12 | 50.0¢ | $12 | — |
| S8880x0711…f03c | No | 12 | 92.3¢ | $11 | Proven+$9.11 per $100 · 9,042 bets |
| Tapastrader0x9f2b…58e7 | No | 10 | 91.7¢ | $10 | — |
| Eltriooteur0x3947…6145 | Yes | 266 | 5.6¢ | $9 | — |
| RedWaffle50x5311…61ee | Yes | 263 | 9.5¢ | $9 | — |
| nevermoreee0x3677…c090 | No | 9 | 92.8¢ | $9 | — |
| 0xb539…775c | No | 9 | 90.6¢ | $9 | — |
| yevhenry0x0164…9ed6 | No | 9 | 88.7¢ | $9 | Positive+$1.17 per $100 · 1,052 bets |
| parklsonstt0x3165…a6ac | No | 9 | 91.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$3.07 per $100 · 110 bets |
| 0x45cf…faaf | No | 9 | 92.1¢ | $8 | — |
| edenmoonff0x5278…8a01 | No | 9 | 91.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$5.36 per $100 · 112 bets |
| jgjjjj0x5850…5eb8 | No | 9 | 92.1¢ | $8 | — |
| zerosmarket0x7ff6…9e62 | No | 9 | 91.9¢ | $8 | Losing−$2.66 per $100 · 117 bets |
| jhhfhgh0xb5a6…82e2 | No | 9 | 92.1¢ | $8 | — |
| hhhjgk0xdbf0…697f | No | 9 | 92.1¢ | $8 | — |
| Llalalatata0xf45f…d382 | No | 9 | 92.1¢ | $8 | — |
| CraftyCreator140x98c1…fe6b | No | 7 | 95.2¢ | $7 | — |
| Amirante0x7acb…93fe | Yes | 176 | 11.4¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x954a…575d | No | 6 | 90.5¢ | $5 | — |
| Akeleke0x00ba…3098 | No | 5 | 91.0¢ | $5 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 133 | 3.5¢ | $5 | Losing−$2.63 per $100 · 123,481+ bets · updating |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 127 | 3.2¢ | $4 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| 0xb886…81b3 | Yes | 123 | 6.0¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.69 per $100 · 1,518 bets |
| 2026ismyyear0xc6e7…1f0d | Yes | 90 | 11.2¢ | $3 | — |
| WizeWins0xa248…3618 | Yes | 76 | 9.2¢ | $3 | — |
| rosemaryli86620xae42…3c72 | Yes | 68 | 6.5¢ | $2 | — |
| lee35990xbeb1…bec3 | Yes | 67 | 15.0¢ | $2 | — |
| BSS370x1e98…6345 | Yes | 47 | 4.4¢ | $2 | Positive+$4.13 per $100 · 15,893 bets |
| 0x8c7a…2a74 | Yes | 45 | 11.0¢ | $2 | — |
| OTNT0xf620…a623 | Yes | 40 | 10.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Zhahsgiwhwb110xe472…a6cd | Yes | 39 | 5.1¢ | $1 | — |
| MartinaCandombe0x60fd…89a9 | Yes | 37 | 8.5¢ | $1 | — |
| chenfatd0x57b1…91f1 | Yes | 33 | 15.0¢ | $1 | — |
| ChachoCL0xf487…9262 | Yes | 33 | 15.0¢ | $1 | — |
| gaut63750x5874…05f7 | Yes | 31 | 8.6¢ | $1 | Positive+$3.88 per $100 · 2,453 bets |
| 0xc9eb…48ea | Yes | 31 | 5.7¢ | $1 | — |
| Gorea0x22e0…3adb | Yes | 29 | 3.4¢ | $1 | Losing−$21.33 per $100 · 690 bets |
| Dmalas0x9d51…0f67 | Yes | 27 | 3.7¢ | $1 | — |
| PostM0xf706…5c1a | Yes | 26 | 3.9¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x5a3b…bd3b | Yes | 23 | 4.3¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xa4d0…40e6 | Yes | 21 | 4.9¢ | $1 | — |
| TheSerafim...0xaa79…c199 | Yes | 21 | 4.9¢ | $1 | — |
| drunkobunko0xba89…468c | Yes | 20 | 7.4¢ | $1 | — |
| LBZbot20xdb6c…ee14 | Yes | 20 | 7.7¢ | $1 | — |
| Guappetto0x8bbc…e540 | Yes | 20 | 8.0¢ | $1 | — |
| FXBender0x67b4…f95b | Yes | 19 | 10.7¢ | $1 | — |
| PIkk0x245c…bf57 | Yes | 16 | 6.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 15 | 3.7¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.96 per $100 · 66,052 bets |
| 0x3759…2f14 | Yes | 14 | 8.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Zihuatanello0x3454…e9ee | Yes | 11 | 8.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x91ef…8efa | Yes | 11 | 8.7¢ | $0 | — |
| Saracens70x99e2…b7be | Yes | 11 | 9.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xaa68…7e44 | Yes | 11 | 9.3¢ | $0 | — |
| zhaoben8880x2d4e…4683 | Yes | 10 | 14.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x3237…22ef | Yes | 10 | 10.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x86e5…df24 | Yes | 10 | 10.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Hudsonvalley0xd49d…ae21 | Yes | 10 | 10.0¢ | $0 | — |
| pimax31120xd9a4…4f8c | Yes | 10 | 10.0¢ | $0 | — |
| unlacky0xa358…0b67 | Yes | 9 | 11.0¢ | $0 | — |
| dimdimka0xf307…e177 | Yes | 9 | 11.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x31a0…72ac | Yes | 9 | 11.3¢ | $0 | — |
| rzhi0xc078…e0ae | Yes | 9 | 11.3¢ | $0 | — |
| YaserXq0xe70c…e5b3 | Yes | 7 | 15.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.