Market · 5 of 21 outcomes
Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 02:10 UTC. Not financial advice.
Exactly one of this event's 21 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 10 | 99.9¢ | $10 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,710 bets |
| TNTCo0x3cec…1f74 | No | 2 | 99.8¢ | $2 | Losing−$9.12 per $100 · 149 bets |
| 0xc5ae…4cf1 | Yes | 1,411 | 0.2¢ | $2 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 700 | 3.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 128,061 bets |
| ewdsfzhi4340x4463…e9a4 | No | 1 | 99.9¢ | $1 | — |
| Bigggggggg0x511f…cbe1 | Yes | 412 | 2.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$8.02 per $100 · 18,931 bets |
| 11B7c7e5D9610xaee8…1154 | Yes | 300 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 234 | 3.3¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.50 per $100 · 124,565+ bets · updating |
| 0x3653…ef74 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xC1471e5e80f7c5149f5D29bcf7-07171593452560x75cb…1556 | Yes | 150 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$81.10 per $100 · 22,268 bets |
| 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44.0x613b…da44 | Yes | 148 | 0.3¢ | $0 | Positive+$57.66 per $100 · 63,695+ bets · updating |
| 0xf03d…21fb | Yes | 91 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| sanduspace0x4aa3…11ce | Yes | 70 | 0.2¢ | $0 | Positive+$44.40 per $100 · 11,985 bets |
| 0x9495…468f | Yes | 61 | 3.1¢ | $0 | Losing−$4.14 per $100 · 12,955 bets |
| JordanMooney0x5136…0e4f | Yes | 41 | 3.1¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.38 per $100 · 13,173 bets |
| 0xbeef…620e | Yes | 40 | 2.5¢ | $0 | — |
| yes-yes-no0xea91…bea2 | Yes | 30 | 3.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 21 | 4.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| LesterDiamond0x558f…1a56 | Yes | 15 | 2.4¢ | $0 | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 23,948 bets |
| WarriorH0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | 12 | 3.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.64 per $100 · 14,872 bets |
| TENETENET0x3329…43a6 | Yes | 10 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$874.76 per $100 · 26,465 bets |
| Lucerys0x1387…55f8 | Yes | 8 | 3.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$5.70 per $100 · 57,655 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 6 | 0.2¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0xa05c…6f9f | Yes | 6 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Hugin-og-Munin0x8fe7…6c1f | Yes | 5 | 1.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$5.79 per $100 · 29,719+ bets · updating |
| triklozoid0xeab7…b389 | Yes | 5 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$2630.36 per $100 · 34,840 bets |
| Mojito90xf2cf…464b | Yes | 2 | 5.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.