Market · 8 of 16 outcomes
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by December 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 17:46 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polmar0010x6e6c…e358 | No | 1,631 | 89.7¢ | $1.57K | New52 settled bets |
| prophet-spaces0x2dd2…d5d8 | No | 1,222 | 93.9¢ | $1.18K | New83 settled bets |
| winnnar0x5daf…63f3 | No | 400 | 90.0¢ | $386 | New51 settled bets |
| ythdrs0xcd6a…44cb | No | 355 | 92.0¢ | $342 | — |
| umxfdrseds0x9ab4…9e85 | No | 312 | 92.0¢ | $301 | — |
| dtsrhzddsf0x4abf…2945 | No | 306 | 92.0¢ | $295 | — |
| yjfxdrdert0xbe7b…3cee | No | 286 | 92.0¢ | $276 | — |
| 0x2d5f…9c36 | No | 250 | 89.4¢ | $241 | Positive+$1.70 per $100 · 112 bets |
| KiernanMeister0xb1ca…1705 | No | 236 | 84.0¢ | $228 | Positive+$2.06 per $100 · 3,296 bets |
| robinhoodx0xb2dc…b433 | No | 111 | 90.0¢ | $107 | Proven+$3.45 per $100 · 260 bets |
| Lennypro0xf501…e428 | No | 110 | 90.6¢ | $106 | — |
| 0xf040…d11f | No | 110 | 91.5¢ | $106 | — |
| MiMiMi-5090x00e5…ce60 | No | 92 | 87.0¢ | $89 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 61 | 93.0¢ | $59 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,955 bets |
| TherealMrblue0x2432…3ef5 | Yes | 1,472 | 8.5¢ | $52 | New25 settled bets |
| 0x452d…f886 | No | 52 | 96.0¢ | $51 | Break-even+$0.17 per $100 · 320 bets |
| ilfghfth0xa4c4…309e | Yes | 1,259 | 8.0¢ | $45 | — |
| TJOE0x0d9b…b909 | No | 44 | 90.0¢ | $43 | — |
| yannfournier0xcc8a…7d9c | No | 38 | 92.1¢ | $37 | — |
| vbm0x8304…f086 | No | 20 | 92.0¢ | $19 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 3,461 bets |
| 0x8c9f…46af | No | 20 | 86.0¢ | $19 | — |
| Vortex-0x8efe…c093 | No | 20 | 92.0¢ | $19 | — |
| Fullvie0x6286…f59c | Yes | 517 | 10.5¢ | $18 | Proven+$5.57 per $100 · 576 bets |
| goatboss0x56e7…cf24 | Yes | 456 | 8.4¢ | $16 | New35 settled bets |
| OzBilu0xcc3e…633c | Yes | 429 | 3.5¢ | $15 | — |
| 0xd217…a747 | No | 16 | 89.9¢ | $15 | — |
| 0x2e4b…83e2 | No | 15 | 87.0¢ | $14 | Losing−$4.84 per $100 · 171 bets |
| AMAM130x52eb…67ac | Yes | 350 | 9.0¢ | $12 | Losing−$5.46 per $100 · 31,074 bets |
| 👑_King_George_👑0x770e…7640 | Yes | 300 | 9.3¢ | $11 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 232 | 5.9¢ | $8 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| thecaricature0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | 203 | 4.4¢ | $7 | Losing−$5.94 per $100 · 8,489 bets |
| 0xaf40…5662 | No | 4 | 91.6¢ | $4 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 101 | 4.6¢ | $4 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| Sampson20xd8fc…aba2 | No | 4 | 96.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xd512…79b3 | Yes | 92 | 12.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Rutter0x6cab…182e | No | 3 | 95.9¢ | $3 | — |
| Scales10x0282…46e9 | No | 3 | 96.0¢ | $3 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 90 | 4.8¢ | $3 | Losing−$2.58 per $100 · 123,998 bets |
| Ruff10xf71b…166c | No | 3 | 95.9¢ | $3 | — |
| Sandford0x39df…1b1a | No | 3 | 96.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Sands40xff69…26e8 | No | 3 | 96.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Rudd30x2964…845f | No | 3 | 96.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Salisbury30x4101…74d1 | No | 3 | 96.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Sabin10xb21b…7266 | No | 3 | 96.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Rushton0xf3f9…9095 | No | 3 | 96.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Sainsbury10xcc78…3c88 | No | 3 | 95.9¢ | $3 | — |
| Ruffell0x56ef…1a4a | No | 3 | 96.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Scanlon0x2b6a…d573 | No | 3 | 96.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Rudkin0x58f6…2ecd | No | 3 | 96.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Saunders30x6884…c94a | No | 3 | 96.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Satchwell0x7350…04d6 | No | 3 | 96.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Sagar30x1a4f…07a6 | No | 3 | 96.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Sayers30x3f80…8988 | No | 3 | 96.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Ryland10x80b0…48fa | No | 3 | 96.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Ruddock0xb446…77d9 | No | 3 | 96.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Rycroft0xc230…3c59 | No | 3 | 96.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Roxburgh0x60f4…9268 | No | 3 | 95.9¢ | $3 | — |
| Sawyer40xd9e4…50e4 | No | 3 | 95.9¢ | $3 | — |
| Rundle10x0062…8660 | No | 3 | 96.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Sargeant0x424a…fdc1 | No | 3 | 95.9¢ | $3 | — |
| Sargent10x06b4…c91a | No | 3 | 96.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Ruffin0x6a2f…a7c0 | No | 3 | 96.0¢ | $3 | — |
| podba0x3de3…0ed3 | Yes | 56 | 9.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 54 | 8.4¢ | $2 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| 1BTCis1BTC0xc759…b965 | Yes | 50 | 4.3¢ | $2 | — |
| PaddyAlpha0x9ad0…bf3d | Yes | 50 | 5.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 3,062 bets |
| 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | 34 | 4.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.38 per $100 · 4,796 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 24 | 12.3¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,289 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 22 | 3.6¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,059 bets |
| 0x1e75…63f1 | Yes | 18 | 4.3¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.06 per $100 · 2,545 bets |
| 63sdf0x601f…76ad | Yes | 0 | 10.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.89 per $100 · 557 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 0 | 91.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,027 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 13.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| smarterstrat0xe550…6f6e | Yes | 0 | 3.8¢ | $0 | — |
| ViscaElBarca0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | 0 | 7.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.