Market · 2 of 71 outcomes
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 05:30 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
6 proven traders are on Yes, 8 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| simpleman0xbe89…b88c | No | 3,969 | 80.1¢ | $3.39K | Proven+$2.51 per $100 · 1,506 bets |
| Retired-Davis0x8365…e9a6 | No | 3,008 | 79.7¢ | $2.57K | — |
| 0x6c10…df5c | No | 2,050 | 88.0¢ | $1.75K | Losing−$7.13 per $100 · 1,041 bets |
| bernardbulletin0x1c14…0869 | No | 1,005 | 88.4¢ | $859 | Proven+$11.16 per $100 · 2,363 bets |
| littlebird0x202b…971a | No | 832 | 85.2¢ | $711 | — |
| ImJustKen0x9d84…1344 | Yes | 4,795 | 13.1¢ | $695 | Proven+$2.12 per $100 · 17,781 bets |
| HotDogs0x5c60…67c1 | No | 779 | 74.4¢ | $666 | — |
| EricaXBT0x7383…bd0b | No | 550 | 73.7¢ | $470 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 219 bets |
| 0x2d72…cca4 | No | 461 | 72.0¢ | $394 | Break-even+$0.39 per $100 · 176 bets |
| basedblk0xe67b…3ec6 | No | 450 | 72.4¢ | $385 | — |
| MrMarket0xf769…0114 | No | 424 | 86.0¢ | $363 | Break-even+$0.83 per $100 · 755 bets |
| maritime63070x5c29…358e | Yes | 2,217 | 14.3¢ | $321 | Losing−$13.57 per $100 · 115 bets |
| QuarterlyComeback0x5a22…17a6 | No | 340 | 88.7¢ | $290 | Proven+$7.93 per $100 · 468 bets |
| rjpoly0x21fe…da90 | No | 299 | 86.0¢ | $256 | Proven+$3.64 per $100 · 762 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 239 | 84.7¢ | $204 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,934 bets |
| Aslan0xe6d8…3484 | No | 219 | 79.0¢ | $187 | — |
| Gambler19680x7a61…af24 | No | 208 | 33.0¢ | $178 | Proven+$24.29 per $100 · 1,950 bets |
| Hugin-og-Munin0x8fe7…6c1f | No | 207 | 90.4¢ | $177 | Positive+$5.79 per $100 · 29,719+ bets · updating |
| Cynic0x4b3c…7cd3 | No | 200 | 86.0¢ | $171 | — |
| MaxEnt0xcf07…c770 | Yes | 1,036 | 13.9¢ | $150 | Break-even+$0.83 per $100 · 690 bets |
| qizhan0xac38…c04f | No | 151 | 88.4¢ | $129 | New60 settled bets |
| 0xd4f7…73bb | Yes | 700 | 12.0¢ | $102 | Proven+$9.54 per $100 · 121 bets |
| Fain0x0262…a9d2 | No | 115 | 89.3¢ | $98 | Break-even−$0.69 per $100 · 1,419 bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | Yes | 600 | 13.0¢ | $87 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| PK1230x6d65…3781 | No | 100 | 88.4¢ | $86 | Losing−$5.68 per $100 · 1,488 bets |
| 0xbf45…c0b6 | Yes | 525 | 13.5¢ | $76 | — |
| asdasdasdasdasdasdasd0x5446…18f6 | Yes | 510 | 13.1¢ | $74 | — |
| Metusalem0xa65c…32fb | Yes | 470 | 11.4¢ | $68 | — |
| JosephTrump0x97af…9bc6 | Yes | 404 | 13.0¢ | $59 | Positive+$1.25 per $100 · 470 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 67 | 86.0¢ | $57 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 123,024+ bets · updating |
| 0x0d62…27e0 | Yes | 347 | 23.4¢ | $50 | Proven+$5.78 per $100 · 301 bets |
| 0x34cd…de11 | Yes | 330 | 22.0¢ | $48 | — |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | Yes | 299 | 13.5¢ | $43 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 569 bets |
| i2dt0x5529…e5b9 | No | 50 | 88.4¢ | $43 | Proven+$3.88 per $100 · 2,165 bets |
| 0xde28…2115 | Yes | 240 | 12.5¢ | $35 | — |
| 0xc3aa…bddc | Yes | 197 | 15.2¢ | $28 | — |
| 5atka0x1c26…6e31 | Yes | 195 | 21.2¢ | $28 | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 6,495 bets |
| hadarhaddad0x1946…6367 | No | 30 | 86.0¢ | $26 | — |
| StupidMonkeyyy0x67d6…245e | Yes | 171 | 0.0¢ | $25 | Break-even+$0.48 per $100 · 1,106 bets |
| Mitakaasa70x6312…f94e | Yes | 151 | 17.1¢ | $22 | Losing−$2.52 per $100 · 2,037 bets |
| no-edge0x0159…1bac | Yes | 140 | 11.2¢ | $20 | New89 settled bets |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 126 | 14.0¢ | $18 | Positive+$6.99 per $100 · 29,969+ bets · updating |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | 20 | 86.0¢ | $17 | Losing−$8.20 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| Pengub0x3c69…4622 | Yes | 107 | 15.2¢ | $16 | — |
| failstober0x90ed…b5bc | Yes | 106 | 18.0¢ | $15 | Proven+$8.51 per $100 · 1,182 bets |
| Hechuan0x659c…a086 | Yes | 106 | 37.8¢ | $15 | — |
| SlappyMcHappyNutz0x58f7…8e4e | Yes | 105 | 38.0¢ | $15 | — |
| clipsta0x3a97…508c | Yes | 95 | 21.0¢ | $14 | — |
| 0xf85f…9800 | Yes | 94 | 14.1¢ | $14 | Break-even+$0.53 per $100 · 919 bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | Yes | 92 | 14.0¢ | $13 | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,264 bets |
| rocky420220x08ce…f301 | Yes | 80 | 15.5¢ | $12 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 5,989 bets |
| yulinjin0x21d7…f6e2 | Yes | 80 | 13.5¢ | $12 | New60 settled bets |
| 0x179f…218b | Yes | 77 | 13.5¢ | $11 | — |
| Scroogie0xb634…eefa | Yes | 76 | 33.0¢ | $11 | — |
| 0x2d92…b4c2 | Yes | 74 | 14.1¢ | $11 | — |
| Robbb0x9cdd…3e97 | No | 12 | 87.5¢ | $10 | Proven+$5.15 per $100 · 4,527 bets |
| 0x04b3…1b7e | No | 11 | 88.4¢ | $10 | — |
| 0xa5a3…49a6 | Yes | 67 | 15.0¢ | $10 | — |
| HexFragLord0x3dd8…8c69 | Yes | 63 | 16.5¢ | $9 | Losing−$32.62 per $100 · 120 bets |
| 0x3ea3…de0c | Yes | 63 | 16.0¢ | $9 | — |
| 0x8948…76e5 | No | 10 | 78.0¢ | $9 | — |
| BullRunWaitingRoom0x231e…9297 | Yes | 53 | 23.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$1.43 per $100 · 703 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 48 | 12.3¢ | $7 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| nightmareado0x3917…77bb | Yes | 47 | 43.0¢ | $7 | — |
| forr0x2c42…bfae | Yes | 45 | 13.4¢ | $7 | — |
| LBZero0xa9a1…c98a | Yes | 44 | 26.0¢ | $6 | Losing−$1.14 per $100 · 8,315 bets |
| rpamado - 111040x54aa…9b98 | Yes | 42 | 24.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x5449…992b | Yes | 37 | 15.5¢ | $5 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 6,692 bets |
| MMRamos12970x9ba0…f24d | Yes | 36 | 14.5¢ | $5 | — |
| AngryTiger0x3ef1…5a3d | No | 6 | 88.4¢ | $5 | — |
| 15rob0x2afd…deb4 | No | 6 | 87.0¢ | $5 | Proven+$2.28 per $100 · 9,823 bets |
| allcryptotrade0x10c3…6759 | Yes | 33 | 15.5¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x35df…cf97 | Yes | 33 | 15.5¢ | $5 | New88 settled bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 33 | 14.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| charliealmanack0xa3a3…c2f9 | Yes | 32 | 33.0¢ | $5 | Proven+$10.37 per $100 · 180 bets |
| uyn0j3vtvru70x6677…801b | No | 5 | 89.3¢ | $4 | — |
| polymonkey0x8b34…87fe | Yes | 28 | 28.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x5cc1…b855 | Yes | 27 | 15.5¢ | $4 | — |
| Wartlock0xe856…3789 | No | 5 | 88.4¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x2650…44f7 | Yes | 27 | 15.7¢ | $4 | Losing−$5.39 per $100 · 1,748 bets |
| 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | 4 | 82.0¢ | $4 | — |
| uselex0x2139…19a1 | No | 2 | 85.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xbc7a…4d4b | No | 1 | 78.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xe91f…2766 | No | 1 | 78.0¢ | $1 | — |
| lovecraft-2250xdc4d…f2c9 | No | 1 | 87.5¢ | $1 | — |
| vamnizar0xaf46…8c1d | No | 1 | 68.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x9de6…e7f0 | Yes | 0 | 13.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 0 | 87.8¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,584 bets |
| 0xdd57…9e24 | No | 0 | 87.9¢ | $0 | — |
| valmier0x3e6e…99ea | No | 0 | 87.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x5bca…a34e | No | 0 | 80.0¢ | $0 | — |
| epps0xf416…6ec9 | No | 0 | 81.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.