Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Full rules

As written on Polymarket for “Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?”.

1. §1This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. §2Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
3. §3Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
4. §4The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.